Is The Set Aside Working?

[15444]

Ontario finally got its act together and implemented the program. Apparently it has been in the works for the last month, but the program sheets are only available on the Net or from the area ag rep. Seeing as how Ontario has consolidated many of the agricultural areas and gotten rid of a lot of ag reps, it is not surprising that some people don't know if Ontario is running the program. As of about mid-November, 50,000 of Ontario's alloted 115,000 calves were in the program.

Ontario's rules are the same as in Manitoba and Saskatchewan apparently. Time to look at this program twice and figure if it is worth it. Not very interested in keeping steers till Sept 1, 2005. Going to be one hell of a pile of yearlings hitting the market that week. Heifers and bulls are worth it, but steers?

[kpb]

15444, I believe you are mistaken on your view about setting aside steers. We normally buy 450 or 470 lb. steers at this time of the year (or maybe a little earlier), background them over the winter to be about 700 to 750, then grass them to 970 to 1000 lbs. in September. These calves will go on full feed in September, 2004 and not finish until January, 2005 (90 days). These are British cross calves that will not finish if you put them on full feed right away at 450 lb. weight. They need to grow first. This is a normal practice for us and other backgrounders and grassers too so I don't know why people are finding it so peculiar or hard to see why steers should be kept over. There's money in it if you manage the critters properly. I also don't see how this is going to affect future prices--you're not going to have more animals coming to market next September than what you normally have---some animals can be grassed and some can't so I don't think anyone should be worried about a big glut at any time. What I don't get is how this keeps animals off the market---the calves that are being set aside can't go to market soon anyway. That's why the prices on these little guys is as good as the non-tagged ones. This program is just a straight gift.

[grassfarmer]

As Cowman says it's amazing how many calves are being sold unclaimed here in Alberta. A neighbour sold his calves last week and only his best would be over 500lbs - he usually keeps 50% (the tailenders) until later in the spring to sell. Sold them unclaimed. Are some people in business or is it just a place to live in the country with a few pets?

[grassfarmer]

After aboutfour weeks reading on very
interesting Agri-ville some philosohy
and comments have no place at all.As
I mention before pride cowman who are
not aplying for the tac,s and mention
of we don,t need subsidie at some large
A B P meeting proof is not many tac,s are selling.Calvs bring 600 plus 200
dollars set aside.DON,T have to live on
another planet or be retard mention of
some cowman on nov 7 2004.
We to have pride in ourfeedlot operation
as there is no help at all this year on finishd fat cattle or through caisp . program. we hope!!
The border better be open again!
So after all COW -CALF MAN put your
tac,s in and run ! Good news coming to-morrow., when the big BOYS get together in
Ottowa have a nice day cowman

[15444]

kpb:

If the majority of producers keeping back their calves are just cow/calf guys, then I will bet that the September trade next fall will run short and heavy. And here is my reasoning:

I understand your point that even if those calves in the program were sold in the spring, that they would be put on grass and sold again in the fall, hence, the number of long yearlings hitting the market in the fall wouldn't change with the program in place or not.

I think this is wrong based on the fact that in both scenarios (ie those calves in program, those not), we are dealing with two levels of producers, the cow/calf and the backgrounder/grasser.

For most backgrounders I know, the time when they take their yearlings off grass varies, so in a fall market, those yearlings will be hitting the market at different times within a period of about 1&1/2 - 2 months. This evens out the marketing of such animals, and a huge glut is normally avoidable, with exceptions.

With the cow/calf guy, by Sept 2005 he has held on to those calves for 1-1&1/2 years. As soon as he is able to cash in on those yearlings, he is going to. Personally, we have the ability to background the calves and grow them out to Sept 2005, but feeding to slaughter is not an option for everyone in our area nor in others.

I guess my main point is that the calves in the program are owned by the cow/calf guy, and each cow/calf rancher (in MB, SK, ON) will have the date 'September 1, 2005' floating around in his mind when he is feeding those buggers this winter. The calves not in the program will follow the regular marketing stream in the fall of 2005.

Now none of my predictions factor in an 'open border' factor, due to the fact that such a factor would completely make my predictions worthless. Also, I have not factored in drought, in which case, the September 1st 2005 week could see record numbers of older cattle hitting the yards.

I am very interested to see what happens with the entire program when Bush visits tommorrow.

[cowman]

Hopefully George Bush will tell us that the beef trade is on track to resume sometime in the new year. And barring another mad cow, we might get back to some semblance of order in the marketplace?
I really doubt we'll have any old cows heading south for a couple of years, so we'll need to come to grips with that? But I do suspect American buyers will be very active bidders for both fats and feeders, once that border opens.
I wonder if Cargill/IBP in Canada will go ahead with their planned expansions if Bush lays out a clear timeline today? They might decide they don't need the extra capacity?

[kpb]

15444, I agree that a glut would be created if it is the cow-calf guy that has the bulk of the set-aside calves to market in the fall because he wants to get out of them as quickly as possible. However it is my belief that the cow-calf rancher will, for the most part, either sell the set asides now, after he puts the tags in to collect the $200, or he will background them to, say 750 lbs. and then sell them to a grasser in the spring. I don't think most cow-calf guys where I am (Alberta) have the grass capacity to graze these little guys. So they'll tag 'em, collect the $200 and sell 'em. They'll for the most part, end up in the hands of the guys they normally end up in--the backgrounders and grassers. I'll grant you that some cow-calf guys will keep them but I don't think they'll be that many and I don't think they'll have an effect on the market. If you were a cow-calf guy in Alberta and you could tag them, collect your $200 and then sell them and get the going market price which is, for the most part, the same as the price for untagged calves, why would you keep them?