The Big Lie

[pr_fire]

Canada's exports to the US accounted for 65% of total US imports to cover domestic demand.

[cowman]

Pr_fire: Are you saying we could eat all the beef we produce here if we didn't have any imports? I thought we were a net exporter?
When the federal government scrapped the CROW I thought we increased our cow herd to the point we had to export?
I always assumed that was how it was, but now you are saying we could basically eat our way out of this mess?

[intr3est]

pr-fire, I agree with you that we have to keep our domestic consumption up and our imports down, but with the all the news lately, I'm still wondering if testing everything might not be a bad idea. I think these last two cases are getting the consumer paying a little more concern. a recent poll on on news website
http://www.canada.com/news/agriculture/index.html

How concerned are you about BSE in the food system?
47.00 %
Not concerned
27.86 %
Moderately concerned
25.13 %
Very concerned

[rkaiser]

Wow pr_fire, some pretty interesting ares to explore.

Randy Kaiser here, Beef Initiative Group Area rep, and also a marketer of my own beef, albeit on a smaller scale than you. 210 purebred cows with all nonbreeding stock going to a vertically integrated market in Calgary, and bull customers tied in to the program as well. Our group currently markets about 15 head of fats a week through restaurants and specialty meat shops.
I would agree that the fat cattle sold are fetching better prices than we ever have, but what the hell are you doing with your cull cows?

Anyway, I would like to discuss this unlimited import of American beef thing with you. Are you saying that we are selling cheap prime Canadian fats in a box to the USA through Tyson and Cargil, only to turn around and buy it back in a different box, less the low end cuts? What kind of tonnage are we talking here? How can this be with pricing etc.?

I am all for keeping the border closed and changing policy in this country, but we certainly need the policy changed NOW.

Beef Initiative Group Canada has always supported BSE testing to unlock export potential, but we have run into a wall called the ABP/CCA. What is you position or influence with these guys?

Beef Initiative Group has also continually harped that we are far too dependent on the American consumer, and have tried with all of our might to convince government to bridge finance a project to build 1 or 2 huge packing plants that would be owned and paid for by the producers of this country by way of a levy on every animal sold. This levy would become a share in the plant once paid down.These plants would be set up with BSE testing, and be prepared to ship all, or most of their product to offshore markets.

I would imagine that with the sheer numbers of animals you have, and the success you have acheived, you must be involved in some type of packing initiative. Do you see merit in producer ownership, or do you beleive Canadians with money are the ones who need to step up to the plate and put a boat in the water beside Cargil and Tyson?

[intr3est]

Just thought I'd through some numbers out here: Canfax #'s. (#'s are metric tonnes)

Canadian Consumption 2003: 748mil (23.4 kg. per capita x 30 million)
Canadian Production 2003: 1,145 mil.
Canadian TRQ's: 76 mil
(If I've made any mistakes in the numbers or my calculations, let me know.)

So, if we did not import or export anything we would need the consumer to eat about 13.2kg more per person! Put another way it would be an additional 57% of what they are eating now. I don't think we can eat our way out of this problem, unless the immigration department has a busy year!

[Smithy]

There is another poll this morning at the Globe and Mail:


Do you consider Canadian beef safe to eat?


Yes
7210 votes (77 %)

No
2196 votes (23 %)


Total Votes: 9406


It is at: www.theglobeandmail.com

[intr3est]

Just wanted to add a few more stats concerning beef trade.

Canadian trade surplus in Beef 2002:
$3.2 Billion 2002
US trade surplus in Beef 1998:
$900 million (haven't found more recent number for the US, yet)

Links to these numbers:
http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/11-621-MIE/11-621-MIE2003005.pdf

http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/Canada/questions.htm

[intr3est]

Found a more recent number for US trade surplus in 2001

2001 Imports $2.5 Billion
2001 Exports $2.5 Billion

No trade surplus or deficit!

[Freesaw]

beef should only leave canada in a box.

[Cattleman]

Our imports are in Eastern Canada, it is very expensive to beef out east, therefore, you are looking at a quite a reduction to the ALberta price to be competitive out there. That is why we shipped beef south because the return was so much higher. There will be a market, but will there be any profit?????

[farmers_son]

pr_fire: You said "The primary sources of these high imports were beef products from the European Union, Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil—countries all subject to the TRQ." You might want to recheck your information. No beef entered Canada from the European Union in 2003 or in the past decade. In 2003, the countries who imported beef into Canada under the TRQ and supplementary permits were Australia 30.3%, New Zealand 36.9%, Uruguay 32.8%.

[pr_fire]

I just got in and will comment on all the posts today in time.

I would like to start with Farmers_Son. All of my comments are based on fact from the Canadian government. Your comment about no beef entering Canada from the European union in the past decade is false. No live cattle have entered, but beef products are still imported today. Every thing I post is backed by statscan reports.

Cowman: your comment about imports going mainly to the east is true. Most of the Canadian beef imports go into the central Ontario market. 95% of my beef sales go into Central Ontario, mainly Tornoto and the Niagra region. The demand out there is so great, I have another 7 large cow/calf operations joining us for 2005. The beef is sold under the brand name "Dougherty Ranchmen's Select" in Ontario.

Randy: We have broke into the pet food market for our cull cows and bulls. We currently sell direct to smaller pet food processing plants around western Canada. We plan to have our own plant up and running by fall of 2005. I will post a full cooment on your post later, altough I would like to talk with you one on one as well. I have your numbers and would like to call you if its ok.

[intr3est]

pr_fire, I wouldn't mind talking to you about what you're doing in Ontario, if you're interested email me at murgen_89@hotmail.com thanks and looking forward to hearing from you

[intr3est]

Freesaw, I agree totally with you, except for the purebred business and dairy markets. Why is it as Canadians we insist on shipping raw product and purchase processed or finished product back. Wheat, lumber are two examples, why don't we ship noodles instead, they are definitely covered under free trade.

[kpb]

rkaiser and everyone else who thinks the border should remain closed--before you guys jump on pr_fire's bandwagon about closing off our biggest customer (pre-BSE) I would suggest you look again at intr3est's numbers.
As intr3est said in his post we are not going to eat our way out of this problem. Unless you guys are now in favor of a dramatic downsizing of our domestic herd? And, don't forget we have more beef than ever now.
We must be the only business in the world that is contemplating shutting out our largest, by far, customer and trying to make it sound like the right thing to do. Does this sound logical and reasonable to all of you?
rkaiser, you've always struck me as a reasoned person and, although we've sometimes disagreed, you seem thoughtful. Tell me again, are you saying we should turn our back on our largest customer? And do what with all this beef we've got kicking around in this country? I agree we need to process more beef domestically and develop more international markets. But I don't see either of those things happening soon. And an open border to our largest customer is something that we should be striving for and working towards--then we can work towards the other goals. If we don't get the border open our industry will continue to languish--look at intr3est's numbers a few posts up and consider our domestic production vs. demand and imports. I think it's a pretty simple calculation.