March 7

[dalek]

Just got a message through a mutual contact that one of our former Federal Ag Ministers met informally last week with some former counterparts from the USDA in Washington and was told that there isn't a snowball's chance in hell of the border opening in March, more like fall at the earliest.

[dalek]

Take it for what it's worth, but according to them the decision has already been made, the current USDA investigation is just window-dressing to justify the decision.

[grassfarmer]

Perhaps realistic given this is Mid January and there will be reports to file, R-CALF injunctions to fight? Governments seem unable to move with any great speed. Of course it doesn't really hurt the US to keep it closed for longer - their packing plants here will get the chance to make that much more money. Tyson shutting his plants down in the US was a gimmick - it's clear that their Brooks plant made more money than all the US ones combined last year so they really can't lose.

[kato]

I heard from someone last fall who knew someone 'on the inside' in the government who said it would be open before November - 2004.

It's a crap shoot. Everyone knows someone who knows something.

What I'm wondering is how much of a difference it will make. The red tape attached to feeders will have costs attached to it. I'm sure those costs will be subtracted from what buyers are willing to pay. Is there enough extra money in a sale to the States to make it worthwhile?

I would think fats would do better, but by how much?

Cows should improve, based on the fact that they want the cow beef, but not the live cows. That would be a help, especially if those cows were being processed in Canadian producer owned plants.

[Braveheart]

I agree with your comments Kato. Also, the biggest fundamental affecting prices of all classes might be the level of the Canadian dollar.

[smcgrath76]

My thought is that the border opening is not going to strengthen prices greatly (dollar aside), but that it may (might) produce some stability in prices week to week, thus making marketing decisions somewhat easier.

[rkaiser]

Marketing desicions - that's a good one Sean. Do you mean something along the lines of, "instead of loosing 30 dollars this week I can project a loss of only 20 dollars next week."

Do you think cow prices will come up if the open border attracts come fats and Lakeside switches to harvesting cows.

(One thing all of this chatter with Americans has taught me is to use the word Harvest rather than Kill, and Process rather than Slaughter.)

[dalek]

I don't know who's right anymore, but I do know I don't believe the cheerleading coming out of CCA and AAFC.

[smcgrath76]

Something to that effect Randy. Basically I am looking forward to a slight bit of risk reduction. For example many producers may ship cattle for sale with an overnight stand. If they sell the next day and a negative (or positive) press story comes out then the price can change by several cents in the period of a few hours.
We may not even lose less, but at least we might be able to see it coming.
I think that moving into value added processing of our own (Cdn) cattle is a preferred option for risk management but if I knew how to tackle that one, I would already be underway.
I think that there is profit to be had in the beef industry, but definitely not in the same way we have always gotten it.

[smcgrath76]

At an ABP Zone meeting last fall we were advised that the female numbers are way down in the US and of course if we can move the older cows out of the system they may be down significantly here in CAN. due to the sell off of heifer calves in 03 and o4. Do you think that will make a significant difference in our over production levels ?