March 7

[grassfarmer]

I don't know how much it will affect our production Emrald - I question how big a heifer sell off their was in 04 given the calf set-aside program. Depends how many moved their heifers before they worked out the program.
I wouldn't assume that reduced cow numbers either in the US or Canada will result in better returns for the cow/calf producer.
I think the new era that will dawn after the border opens might disappoint us. With the increasing strangle-hold that the packers have on feedlots/ primary producers the potential for upturn in the market will not be what it was in the past.
I read last week in connection with the Bonnett feedlot case that 15% of feedlots are in the same position - the banks holding the gun to their heads with their only survival option being to custom feed for the packers. We may think there is little progress in the border opening or new packing plants being built but there are huge changes going on in the industry as a whole - and none of them good for cow calf producers.

[ALICIA]

If the cow-calf guy no longer operates then I guess it is the end of meat on the market. The diet will eather be veg's or chicken and maybe a little pork, if they can operate in the North pole seeing that know one wants them to raise pigs next door because they may smell ??? now and then.

[Horse]

You may all be right but at Neilsons Clyde the quote 600# strs 106 to 120 so some one is hoping on things getting better and Nielsons owning a hell of a whack of cows and they quoted a high of 30cents.
There are a lot of people around here that are throwing in the towel I guess they are tired of puting in thier wages for nothing and the alfa cube plant is rumored to shut down so a lot more land up for rent, along with dire predictions on the canola picture it seams like real interesting times coming.

[Horse]

grassfarmer, I would suggest that the 15% of feedlots may be a conservative estimate. Interesting that there hasn't been anything in the news about Bonnets since the first flurry of news items. Wonder what is happening there ?

[BFW]

Gentlemen, I do not nor should you believe that anywhere even near 15% of Alberta feeding operations are in the same or even similar situation to that of the Bonnett's. The last 2 turn of cattle have been more or less profitable and the government programs saved a bllod bath in most cases. Certainly Bonnett's were in a unique position when BSE struck (having a large inventory of cows on feed) but with the numbers being tossed around(35-40 million dollars)of what their losses are, something doesn"t quite add up here. The Alberta feeding industry is in better shape than you will believe albeit with exceptions. It is and will continue to be a competitive bidder for feeder cattle. Take that coffee shop talk with a grain of salt!