Longevity

[kpb]

sometimes I wonder how any of us with cows ever make money. This thread got me thinking of how the guys who bought bred heifers at $1,200 or $1,300 before all this BSE stuff happened are ever going to get out alive. If you figure that heifer has eight calves, on average, which is likely high given that a few will die, some not calve sometime, etc. then that is $125 per calf depreciation per year assuming a cull price of $250.
Now if you breed the old bat at eight and then sell her bred rather than as a cull then maybe you'll get more? I don't know if you will get more for very much longer in this market--you're basically assuming that whoever buys her is dumber than yourself, right? Because you thought she was a cull.
I'm not sure that there's going to be enough dumb farmers left to buy all these culls that we're trying to sell as good bred cows when they turn eight years old. And depriciation of $125 per calf--If everything goes right and she calves every year for eight year--man that is a killer hole to get out of.

[cowman]

Well I would suggest that this present crisis won't last forever and by the time that $1300 heifer is sold at ten or twelve years old she'll be worth more than $250?
Were we all dumb for buying those old eight year old culls? Remember that before BSE and the drought we were in a pretty hot market? And ALL our heifers were worth that $1300(or a lot more) in 2002! Whether we raised them or bought them...that was what they were worth?
Old cows bought at near meat prices were a very good buy if you raised one calf and turfed them? Example: I bought 6 BIG exotic older calves in 2000 for $800 a piece. Last sale of the year Dec. 22(tax problems!). Calved out in February, one set of twins. Sold the calves in that $1.25-$1.30 range in that 700 lb. range. Sold all 6 cows after the calves went in late November 2001. Averaged $780 net on them. What did I have in them? 130 days on feed and pasture? So I lost $20 and maybe $200 for feed? Payback of over $900 minus $220 or close to $700? Not too bad of an investment? Actually better than keeping those pricy heifers?
No one can predict that something like BSE will hit us. Or a tornado or whatever? If we tried to factor in all the possible wrecks that might happen in our lives, we'd never get anything done? These last few years have been pretty ugly for sure. And some guys won't survive this wreck, but for the ones who do, they will come out tougher and they will see good times again.
I do believe you know this kpb? The fundamentals of feeding cattle this winter are pretty positive, border open or border closed?

[kpb]

cowman, you're right of course and thanks for jogging my memory of life before BSE--it can get a little frustrating trying to deal with the ongoing politics. Feeding calves this winter has been very, very good as we've discussed before. And, actually, that's what prompted my comment because we also have a cow herd and I got to thinking about how bred heifers have a built-in high depriciation level. That's a lot of depreciation for those calves to carry with post-BSE calf prices.
However, as you pointed out, if we return to normal on our cull cow price, the depreciation isnt so bad. Now as you know I suggested last fall that everyone go out and buy as many feeders as they could and they would make money. If I recall properly, you thought this was a good strategy too. But at this time I think everyone should buy cow-calf pairs-the uglier the cow the better (cheaper). These pairs are too cheap right now (say $550)--the calf will pay for everything in the fall and the cow will be a freebee. If cull prices go back to .40 there's good money there for a fat cow off pasture. I'm not suggesting buying breds because who knows what problems you'll have calving--but a pair with all the work done. I think that's a good plan if you've got some grass--better than grassers right now--and I think it'll net $400--what do you think cowman?

[grassfarmer]

Cowman, Your example shows us that buying mature cows as herd replacements in the fall could pay off some years. But what kind of herd does it give you? a mixed herd with the calves off different sires, no consistancy and the potential to be buying in other peoples trouble cases. The ones that are ornery at calving, have teats that need milked out when they calve, prolapse.
I still stand by my original thread which is that longevity is a much underrated trait. Another thing about the longevity trait is that is not antagonistic to a lot of the other traits we want - eg calving ease, milk, carcase.

[cowman]

kpb: I do agree that those cow/calf pairs hitting the market have got to look pretty good right now...if you have any extra grass! Unfortunately most guys are overstocked right now because they have been holding everything that could possibly have a calf, rather than let the "cow thieves" get her for next to nothing!
grassfarmer: I was not saying buying old cows was a way to build a cow herd...just a short term way to make some money. I still believe it takes pretty well a lifetime to breed a really good cow herd!
Of course a person is going to have some trouble with these cull type cows. They aren't at the sale because they were the best cows in the country! I believe if anyone wanted to build a cow herd on auction market cows, then they should be buying at a dispersal sale? Of course dispersal sale cows are usually quite pricey?
With the presort sales you can always find a willing buyer for any calves that might not be a fit with your other cattle?