current feeder prices

[kpb]

I was talking to a buyer this morning and he said that prices at the auction marts are down by up to .25 on the heavier weight feeders and .15 to .20 on the lighter end. I guess the 5weight feeders are going around 1.10 to 1.15 but the 8-weights are going for .80 to .85. All of this is down by quite a bit from before the latest border closing.
I think the prices have dropped not because of the limited number of live animals that would have crossed an open border but rather because there would have been a lot more buyers competing for our animals. That is the biggest problem now and for the immediate future--we still do not have multiple bids for the animals.
I now think the chance of the border opening before fall is slim to none. And I think it is likely that the prices for fresh calves in the fall will be even lower than today. I think you will see 5-weights at around .90 or lower in the fall.
The feedlots and backgrounders like myself that bought last fall are still ok at current prices but the ones that bought since late November are going to be under water very soon if not already. In my opinion this will be the last straw for many and for the rest they will not have the money or the enthusiasm to bid much on calves next fall. I'm not sure how many calves I want to bid on when I have no idea of what the future price may be.
These are just my thoughts but I'll add one more--the Canadian taxpayer is getting very tired of paying us money--I doubt there's much left to come our way. I think we may not have seen the bottom of our hole just yet.

[whiteface]

That's simply evolution, kpb. When deer run short of feed (drought,etc.) or there are too many of them to compete for their feed, some die. The ones left are the fittest, I suspect that will be the case with us cattle people as well and I am by no means suggesting that I'll make it either. We can't expect a bailout, and absolutly as a cow/calf girl, I don't expect you to simply "pay more" because I might think I deserve a living at this and can't pay my bills at current prices. It's supply and demand and I know beyond any doubt that when the supply is less than the demand, the price will go up and not until. Likely that means some of us have to go... Good luck to you all and thanks for an insightful post kbp as to how "the next guy" along the chain is thinking (the guy after us cow/calf guys), an informative view that I certainly appreciate, it will help with my own plans for the comeing summer and fall. Have a good night all!

[Horse]

KPB it would be helpful to know from what area you are reporting from such as southern alta or manatoba as some of the users on this site I can remember and some I cant.
Reports I hear in north west alta are 800# at 80 cents but numbers are way down again after the 7 th as everyone is waiting to see what now.

[blackjack]

kpb...what seems so strange this time around is our packers are only slaughtering 34,000 head last week in Alberta...in July of last year the packers were processing up to 55,000 head were they not...like farmers_son has said(and many others)how many times we are in a disfunctional market place...this time the packers have no excuses of there being backed up fats...this is just pure BS...

[kpb]

Horse, the buyer I was talking with was at the Olds Auction Mart as I talked with him. He also goes to Innisfail and Burnt Lake and referred to a large sale in High River during our conversation so I assume the prices were from those places. I noticed on the TEAM sale on Friday that there were a goodly number of non-sales.
Whiteface, thx for your post, insightful as usual, I agree that it is survival of the fittest and lets hope most of us survive. I guess that sometimes we all get a little tired of fighting things beyond our control. We can all handle the weather, cattle cycles, etc. but this other stuff makes it really hard to plan in what is a very capital intensive business.

kpb

[kpb]

blackjack, you are right, the market is not operating properly. I did not know that the kill rate was down--so prices should not be down too, right? Shows how dysfunctional things are when you have so few buyers. That is why we need the border open--not to actually ship a lot of animals but to provide a competitive bidding process. After all, if I want to buy 1,000 feeders I likely bid on 3,000 and push the price up on the 2,000 I don't actually get.

kpb

[perfecho]

I could live with it if we were truly supply and demand, but when our free market system has turned into a free monopoly system...the biggest dictate..and can dictate prices, I have a problem. This is a problem partially brought on my current governments, so why not anti up. The real question should not be economics, but what is the best interest of society. (We have seen the result of "economic driven decisions")