this is progress?

[jensend]

so after twenty two months of waiting Laycraft says now we have to fight to hold on to the boxed beef exports we now have?? somebody give him a globe and show him there are other places in the world than the united states. cca is looking more inept as the weeks go by. pretty soon they can spin maintenance of what we have now as a huge positive step. the quote is from ctv.ca


Beef producers believe R-CALF, an American lobby group, wants a more sweeping ban that would halt shipments of boneless beef from entering the United States.

"We're not expecting there's any imminent risks, but we have to be prepared if it's down the road," Dennis Laycraft of the Canadian Cattlemen's Association and chair of the beef round table which will meet Mitchell, told The Canadian Press.

"The best scenario for us, if this (border opening) is going to be delayed, is that we don't lose the under 30-month beef that's going in there currently," he said.

"Whatever plan we develop has to look at that risk."

[farmers_son]

I think Dennis Laycraft is just laying it out on the table and telling it like it is. In another thread I mentioned my concerns that we could loose the beef exports we have now. If Richard Cebull continues to be left in charge of U.S. international policy then we have to face the possibility that he will impose further restrictions on Canadian beef imports just like he did in April 2004.

As for other places in the world…the world is watching right now. Countries like Japan, Korea, and others are watching to see trade resume between Canada and the U.S. before making any moves themselves. If trade cannot be reestablished between the worlds two closest trading partners then I would not expect the floodgates to open to beef trade with minimal risk countries any time soon.

“Beef producers believe R-CALF, an American lobby group, wants a more sweeping ban that would halt shipments of boneless beef from entering the United States” Well that is not news to me. R-Calf’s goal is a complete elimination of Canadian beef from the U.S. But where is the USDA in this? It is a week now and no mention of an appeal. Surely the USDA does not want this case to be heard before Richard Cebull so that R-Calf can have a public forum to drag the safety of North American beef through the mud.

[jensend]

i agree with what you say as far as cebull and r-calf are concerned and i have felt since cebull granted the injunction that r-calf would try to go all the way. i just think the ctv article points out that cca has take too much of a hope for the best attitude and not recognized that canada is in a position where we have to look for ways out of this rather than wait for somebody to lead us out. the only thing we have on our side if r-calf goes after the boxed beef is that we have been so willing to be ****d that tyson and cargill won't let that one go so easily.

[rkaiser]

You're right about the packers not lettin this go easily jensend.

In addition, the ABP lawyer informed a good friend of mine yesterday that Cebull had opportunity twice now to add boxed beef to the two Rcalf injunctions, and chose not to. Boxed beef has been on their plate on both occasions. Stopping trade on something new is easier than stopping a process already in motion... Hopeful, maybe, but we have to grasp every bit of hope we can,,,,,, not.

[rkaiser]

Oh yeah, if boxed beef is not stopped, Laycraft will declare his work victorious again.

I say CAN HIS BUTT. This man is nothing but an American Ass Kisser. We need someone with a new agenda other than an open border to the USA.

[Incognito]

You guys needed to follow grain politics...and learn that it is all politics...all the time.

Quote:
May 18, 2001

President Bush today also announced his formal nomination of two individuals to serve as Judges for the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana.

The President has officially nominated Richard F. Cebull to serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana.

UNQUOTE

[farmers_son]

In April of 2004 the USDA and Canada both relaxed their respective BSE restrictions to allow an extended range of beef products into each others country. Richard Cebull granted R-Calf an injunction that saw the U.S. retract from that expanded list of products right back to the original list that were allowed in as of September 2003. That included products that were coming into the U.S. for many months due to an interpretation of the September 2003 product list. So it is possible to stop something that is already in motion, Cebull did it with a stroke of his pen.

The rumours I am hearing now suggest the USDA is not going to appeal the R-Calf injunction this time either. Richard Cebull has pretty well declared his position and views on this issue and the outcome of a trial he was presiding at would be pretty well certain. There is little that can be done from this side of the border but if the USDA sits back and lets Cebull decide this case then there is little doubt that they weren’t serious about ever allowing live Canadian cattle across the border. R-Calf, a small group of rich protectionist ranchers, will be in control of the U.S policy on food safety and that is a scary thing for producers on both sides of the border.

[Incognito]

you missed the point:

Who appointed Cebull?

[cowman]

America has this ugly attitude that they can have their cake and eat it too? Hey, you know something...that just really isn't cutting it?
Screw around with about the only country in the world that doesn't consider you complete a-holes!
Treat us like garbage! Shaft our hog farmers! Screw our beef farmers! Screw our wheat farmers! Does the USA ever wonder why they are practically universally hated?
I have always been a very vocal supporter of the USA? Frankly I admire a lot of the things they stand for? Free enterprize and the right for any person to get ahead if they make the effort. Unfortunately, I have been slightly discouraged by the attitude of a lot of American cattlemen! They will lie and cheat to achieve their dream. R-CALF is a lying and demeaning organization! Shame on all you American cattlemen for supporting these liars!

[kpb]

I know lots of you guys hate me saying this and disagree with me on this but as long as we are dependent on the U.S. for such a huge part of our market, we will be at their beck and call. Sure, cowman, the U.S. is disliked around the world, sure they look after their own interest at the expense of everyone else--Is that news to anyone?
I know lots of you don't want to hear this but if we had had a cull of our older cows at any point in the last two years, then gone to a supply management system to serve our domestic market and to hell with exports we would now have a secure industry with a bright future that we could make a decent living from. As long as we continue to seek the holy grail of export markets we will be at the whim of politics in those markets--politics that we have no control over. We need to grow up and look after our own interests as much as these other countries look after their interests.
Make no mistake about it, if the U.S. closes the border to boxed beef we will lose our Canadian cattle industry. I'm not talking about those of you who have 30 or 40 cows or who work off the farm to support your hobby. I'm addressing those of us who are trying to make a living from cattle, trying to raise a family and pay taxes. We are the ones who will disappear with a closed border because we are the only ones who actually care about making money in this industry. The hobby farmers don't actually care much about their expenses or returns--after all its not their main livlihood.
For those of us who are trying to keep this a viable industry and for the Canadian taxpayer, a mass cull and supply management is eventually going to have to be faced as the cheapest and brightest way to go.

[cowman]

First of all kpb: I do not live or die by the cattle industry! If she wrecks tommorrow I will survive! Having said that... this is, and always has been my passion in life, and I do not take that lightly...at all!!!
You have a sort of a dissparingly tone for anyone who has taken an initiative to survive the agricultural crisis, and I will admit I resent that. Early on I realized if I wanted to keep what I have I would have to do things differently? Was that scewed thinking?
I share your thoughts on a "marketing based ideology"...or so I believe?
I do believe in the concept of a "orderly marketing system"?(Like ever other "real" industry follows?
Not ripping you here! I believe you are a young man who has his head on his shoulders. I am impressed with your common sense wisdom!

[WoolyBear]

Incognito........ heres the answer to your question.

July 20th, 2001

SENATE CONFIRMS HADDON, CEBULL
Burns, Baucus Laud Unanimous Votes

Washington, DC --- Montana Senators Conrad Burns and Max Baucus announced that the Senate today unanimously confirmed Sam Haddon and U.S. Magistrate Judge Richard Cebull as U.S. District Court Judges for Montana. Burns and Baucus expressed their thanks to President Bush for nominating Haddon and Cebull, and to their Senate colleagues for moving to quickly confirm their appointments.

"Today is a great day for the judicial system in Montana," Baucus said. "I cannot think of two men who are more qualified to serve on Montana's federal bench than Sam Haddon and U.S. Magistrate Judge Richard Cebull. Montana is lucky to have them. I'd like to thank Senator Burns for inviting me to join him in nominating Sam and Rick and moving the process along so quickly."

“First, I’d like to thank Senator Baucus for his willingness to work together to ensure that our judicial vacancies were filled as quickly as possible with qualified candidates,” said Burns. “Both Sam and Richard come with the highest rating of their peers, and they fully understand equal justice under the law. I have no doubt that these two men will serve this country and our state in the highest tradition of judicial integrity and honor.”

In February, Burns and Baucus took the unusual step of jointly recommending Haddon and Cebull to fill Montana’s two vacant federal judgeships, sidestepping the typical process in which the senior senator of the president’s political affiliation recommends nominees for federal appointments. Burns and Baucus felt it was important to work together in order to fill the vacancies as quickly as possible and speed confirmation in the closely divided Senate. Haddon and Cebull were President Bush’s first nominees at the District Court level to be sent to the Senate for confirmation. Both received the unanimous endorsement of the American Bar Association (ABA), and were approved by the Senate Judiciary Committee by a vote of 19-0 on July 19, 2001.

Haddon and Cebull’s commissions now must be signed by President Bush, after which their official proceedings will be complete. They will be invested formally as Montana District Court Judges this summer in Montana. They will then begin work to alleviate the judicial backlog Montana is experiencing as a result of having only one active U.S. District Court Judge.

[15444]

kpb,

Good to see another supporter of supply management. I have brought this subject up many times before, and know there are a lot of guys on here that are absolutely against it. I know that Cattlemen's had a big article about 'supply management and 20 years in the future', a few months ago. It basically came to the conclusion that the beef industry would be exactly the same as the dairy industry by being to expensive to expand or get into. My thinking is, what's wrong with that? When was the last time you saw a city slicker novice come to your area and decide he wanted to ranch 300 cows?

We all know that we currently have too many cows to handle what this country needs.
My thinking is that the ones who have stayed in it this long should all be given quota for each of their cows...hence giving each cow, good or bad, a set market value based on the quota price.

From this quota price, the value of it can fluctuate up, but never below the price originally set, giving older producers a guaranteed asset amount to bank on.

For the next, say 10-15 years, the government plans to eliminate a certain percentage of these cows (say 2% or about 120,000 head/year) through buying the quota from those producers who are willing to sell. This provides the producers with a guaranteed amount of cash, and provides the government with a option of getting a segment of the ag industry into a stabilized position with minimal cost...roughly between 60 to 120 million/year based on either $500 or $1000 for quota (all depending on which one is decided upon originally.

Based on a 2% elimination rate, in 10 years, 20% of the cowherd will have been eliminated without the use of senseless mass culling, or relying on producers to go broke. Had we implemented this in 2003:

~ The total cowherd size would have went down by 4% instead of going up 12%
~ It would have cost the governments approx. $240 million over 2 years, rather then the current $1.5 billion.

Although supply management may not change market prices dramatically over a couple of years, it would stop producers from keeping large percentages of heifers back, which just increases the cowherd size...because most guys don’t cull the same percentage of females they keep.

Although there are a lot of guys on here that are gonna argue with this idea, think about this:

~ Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to have a guaranteed price/buyer for your cows, provided the government hadn’t reached it’s 2% for that year?

~ The quota is transferrable to your children.

~ It’s a solid management system with hefty fines for someone going over their quota amount intentionally, which keeps the cowherd size even more stable.

~ Provided the government hasn’t reached their 2% for the year, you have the option of either selling the cow to them, or through the regular market system.

The biggest thing that I see the quota system doing is keeping the ‘fly by night’ producers out of the system.

This just gives you a rough idea of what I am thinking. Could write one hell of a book if I actually had to design it to be implemented.

[kpb]

cowman, you and I agree on many aspects of the cattle industry as can be seen from many of our previous posts and I respect your opinion. I would like to think that I am not disparaging of producers who are trying to get through the current crisis with new ideas. I recognize that niche marketing or selling direct to the consumer works well for some people and I say more power to them.
My concern is not with these guys who have worked out a way to make things work for them or for the producers running small herds, the hobby farmers or the guys with off-farm incomes. These producers will get by no matter what. I am concerned with the ranchers like myself who have large investments in their business, who have expanded their herds to the point where they can make a living off them. These are the producers, the backgrounders and the feedlot guys who are at risk here. I am concerned that our business is going to eventually be made up of all small herds and hobby farmers. If that's what we want, then fine but if we really want to be taken seriously then we better be more than just hobby farmers.
A friend of mine has 600 cows as well as a couple of hundred feeders. He bought these feeders a few weeks ago at prices .l5 above where they are now. So he's taking a bath there. His cow herd is largely made up of animals he bought several years back as bred heifers at $1200 to $1,300 a head. So there's another bath. Now this guy isn't dumb--he's a smart producer who's been in the business all his life. His only mistake was to expand and to want to grow and contribute more. Was BSE his fault?
My point is that he and I can deal with the cattle cycle, with drought with disease and everything else that as ranchers we've always dealt with. But no one can deal with borders closing at any arbitrary time, or another BSE case, or international politics. And it's going to be the guys like him, who are actually working in the industry, who are bleeding the most. If the guys like him go under--and they will if the boxed beef market goes---our industry will just be a shell of what it is now.

[kpb]

15444, I am really impressed with the thinking you've done on this and the numbers you've worked out. You're about 10 miles ahead of me on this but I really like what you posted. I hope others read your post and start thinking about what you've written--I believe it is the best way to save our industry.

kpb