this is progress?

[cowman]

First of all kpb: I do not live or die by the cattle industry! If she wrecks tommorrow I will survive! Having said that... this is, and always has been my passion in life, and I do not take that lightly...at all!!!
You have a sort of a dissparingly tone for anyone who has taken an initiative to survive the agricultural crisis, and I will admit I resent that. Early on I realized if I wanted to keep what I have I would have to do things differently? Was that scewed thinking?
I share your thoughts on a "marketing based ideology"...or so I believe?
I do believe in the concept of a "orderly marketing system"?(Like ever other "real" industry follows?
Not ripping you here! I believe you are a young man who has his head on his shoulders. I am impressed with your common sense wisdom!

[WoolyBear]

Incognito........ heres the answer to your question.

July 20th, 2001

SENATE CONFIRMS HADDON, CEBULL
Burns, Baucus Laud Unanimous Votes

Washington, DC --- Montana Senators Conrad Burns and Max Baucus announced that the Senate today unanimously confirmed Sam Haddon and U.S. Magistrate Judge Richard Cebull as U.S. District Court Judges for Montana. Burns and Baucus expressed their thanks to President Bush for nominating Haddon and Cebull, and to their Senate colleagues for moving to quickly confirm their appointments.

"Today is a great day for the judicial system in Montana," Baucus said. "I cannot think of two men who are more qualified to serve on Montana's federal bench than Sam Haddon and U.S. Magistrate Judge Richard Cebull. Montana is lucky to have them. I'd like to thank Senator Burns for inviting me to join him in nominating Sam and Rick and moving the process along so quickly."

“First, I’d like to thank Senator Baucus for his willingness to work together to ensure that our judicial vacancies were filled as quickly as possible with qualified candidates,” said Burns. “Both Sam and Richard come with the highest rating of their peers, and they fully understand equal justice under the law. I have no doubt that these two men will serve this country and our state in the highest tradition of judicial integrity and honor.”

In February, Burns and Baucus took the unusual step of jointly recommending Haddon and Cebull to fill Montana’s two vacant federal judgeships, sidestepping the typical process in which the senior senator of the president’s political affiliation recommends nominees for federal appointments. Burns and Baucus felt it was important to work together in order to fill the vacancies as quickly as possible and speed confirmation in the closely divided Senate. Haddon and Cebull were President Bush’s first nominees at the District Court level to be sent to the Senate for confirmation. Both received the unanimous endorsement of the American Bar Association (ABA), and were approved by the Senate Judiciary Committee by a vote of 19-0 on July 19, 2001.

Haddon and Cebull’s commissions now must be signed by President Bush, after which their official proceedings will be complete. They will be invested formally as Montana District Court Judges this summer in Montana. They will then begin work to alleviate the judicial backlog Montana is experiencing as a result of having only one active U.S. District Court Judge.

[15444]

kpb,

Good to see another supporter of supply management. I have brought this subject up many times before, and know there are a lot of guys on here that are absolutely against it. I know that Cattlemen's had a big article about 'supply management and 20 years in the future', a few months ago. It basically came to the conclusion that the beef industry would be exactly the same as the dairy industry by being to expensive to expand or get into. My thinking is, what's wrong with that? When was the last time you saw a city slicker novice come to your area and decide he wanted to ranch 300 cows?

We all know that we currently have too many cows to handle what this country needs.
My thinking is that the ones who have stayed in it this long should all be given quota for each of their cows...hence giving each cow, good or bad, a set market value based on the quota price.

From this quota price, the value of it can fluctuate up, but never below the price originally set, giving older producers a guaranteed asset amount to bank on.

For the next, say 10-15 years, the government plans to eliminate a certain percentage of these cows (say 2% or about 120,000 head/year) through buying the quota from those producers who are willing to sell. This provides the producers with a guaranteed amount of cash, and provides the government with a option of getting a segment of the ag industry into a stabilized position with minimal cost...roughly between 60 to 120 million/year based on either $500 or $1000 for quota (all depending on which one is decided upon originally.

Based on a 2% elimination rate, in 10 years, 20% of the cowherd will have been eliminated without the use of senseless mass culling, or relying on producers to go broke. Had we implemented this in 2003:

~ The total cowherd size would have went down by 4% instead of going up 12%
~ It would have cost the governments approx. $240 million over 2 years, rather then the current $1.5 billion.

Although supply management may not change market prices dramatically over a couple of years, it would stop producers from keeping large percentages of heifers back, which just increases the cowherd size...because most guys don’t cull the same percentage of females they keep.

Although there are a lot of guys on here that are gonna argue with this idea, think about this:

~ Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to have a guaranteed price/buyer for your cows, provided the government hadn’t reached it’s 2% for that year?

~ The quota is transferrable to your children.

~ It’s a solid management system with hefty fines for someone going over their quota amount intentionally, which keeps the cowherd size even more stable.

~ Provided the government hasn’t reached their 2% for the year, you have the option of either selling the cow to them, or through the regular market system.

The biggest thing that I see the quota system doing is keeping the ‘fly by night’ producers out of the system.

This just gives you a rough idea of what I am thinking. Could write one hell of a book if I actually had to design it to be implemented.

[kpb]

cowman, you and I agree on many aspects of the cattle industry as can be seen from many of our previous posts and I respect your opinion. I would like to think that I am not disparaging of producers who are trying to get through the current crisis with new ideas. I recognize that niche marketing or selling direct to the consumer works well for some people and I say more power to them.
My concern is not with these guys who have worked out a way to make things work for them or for the producers running small herds, the hobby farmers or the guys with off-farm incomes. These producers will get by no matter what. I am concerned with the ranchers like myself who have large investments in their business, who have expanded their herds to the point where they can make a living off them. These are the producers, the backgrounders and the feedlot guys who are at risk here. I am concerned that our business is going to eventually be made up of all small herds and hobby farmers. If that's what we want, then fine but if we really want to be taken seriously then we better be more than just hobby farmers.
A friend of mine has 600 cows as well as a couple of hundred feeders. He bought these feeders a few weeks ago at prices .l5 above where they are now. So he's taking a bath there. His cow herd is largely made up of animals he bought several years back as bred heifers at $1200 to $1,300 a head. So there's another bath. Now this guy isn't dumb--he's a smart producer who's been in the business all his life. His only mistake was to expand and to want to grow and contribute more. Was BSE his fault?
My point is that he and I can deal with the cattle cycle, with drought with disease and everything else that as ranchers we've always dealt with. But no one can deal with borders closing at any arbitrary time, or another BSE case, or international politics. And it's going to be the guys like him, who are actually working in the industry, who are bleeding the most. If the guys like him go under--and they will if the boxed beef market goes---our industry will just be a shell of what it is now.

[kpb]

15444, I am really impressed with the thinking you've done on this and the numbers you've worked out. You're about 10 miles ahead of me on this but I really like what you posted. I hope others read your post and start thinking about what you've written--I believe it is the best way to save our industry.

kpb

[Incognito]

No Wooly:...I knew the answer.scroll up

A) GW Bush has annouced a 5% cut in Ag spending for a total of 550 plus mil.

B) the Senate, led by the Farm legislators, embarrased GW Bush on the border vote

C) negotiating power now goes back to the Farm legislators as Bush will not use veto power on something so small

D) Judicial appointments are patronage appointments

E) Cebull maybe a loose cannon but GW Bush has been kept aprised all along

Crows don't eat crows

So, think about that the next time someone says its not political

[cowman]

kpb: I definitely agree that if we lose the boxed beef trade we are toast. Now I doubt that will happen because too many people are making big bucks on that trade and in this world money talks?
Personally I can't see the Canadian government letting the cattle industry go down? Too much money involved, too many people depend on it for a living?
Maybe if R-CALF gets an injunction against boxed beef it would finally wake up the government to the fact that America is not playing fair? Perhaps prompt them to actually do something like test everything and take the USA to court and force them to live up to their trade deals? Then pursue an agressive export marketing plan based on the fact Canadian beef is tested BSE free? Our marketers should stress to their potential customers that the USA beef is not tested and in fact they are agressively covering up their own problems?
Talked to a guy who came from Ohio. He told me the farmers down there know they have BSE but just do the old 3S thing! He said in his hometown there is a man dying in the hospital from BSE but it has been hushed up! Now of course this is just what he told me and he offered no proof, but he was sincere.

[Bez]

Supply management:

Only two profitable outfits out there right now and both are supply managed - poultry and dairy. Speaks volumes.

Let the beef industry fall? You bet.

By doing nothing, the beef industry falls to what could be considered - in gov eyes - acceptable levels.

Bez

[jensend]

gotta feel good about this one:

World STORY
Beef official says U.S. border may be closed to Canadian cattle to late 2006

Judy Monchuk
Canadian Press


March 10, 2005


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CALGARY (CP) - Ottawa kicked in $50 million for a campaign to reclaim and expand markets for Canadian beef Thursday as a top industry official made the grim observation that it could be another 18 months before the U.S. border reopens to live cattle.

"Realistically we have to look at the worst-case scenario and make sure we have plans built around that," said Dennis Laycraft of the Canadian Cattlemen's Association.

as far as supply management for beef goes, i don't know if it would be a good thing or not. my feeling is that it couldn't happen anyway, canada won't commit the money to make the changeover, wto would see red on it so you can just as well wish for tropical weather in january in winnipeg.

[15444]

Well the way I see it, Canada has to wake up and realize that we are a nation of exports? I really sometimes wonder what industries people/government think contributes to this country's economy? Either Canada develops a backbone and sticks up for its softwood/agriculture/fishery industries, or it goes protectionist and turns alot of commodities, especially in agriculture, into supply managed ones?

I can see it as being a healthier industry with 30,000 ranchers earning a decent living, rather then 90,000 trying to sc**** by on loans and hope?