Next U.S. Inconclusive/Positive BSE Soon

[farmers_son]

I was reading a USDA news release that pointed out that inconclusive results are a normal component of screening tests, which are designed to be extremely sensitive so they will detect any sample that could possibly be positive.

It has been 41 weeks since the USDA increased testing using the rapid tests. Since then we have seen 3 "inconclusive" tests or an average of one every 13-14 weeks. It has been 16 weeks since the last "inconclusive" test. The USDA is overdue. We should be expecting some news from south of the border any day now.

The U.S. cannot dodge a bullet every time they get one of these "inconclusive" tests. Given that the animal must be tested "inconclusive" which really means positive twice before any announcement is made it becomes more and more probable that one of the "inconclusive" tests will be found to be a case of BSE,even considering the watered down testing the U.S. is doing.

When these same rapid tests are done on the Canadian side of the border "inconclusive" turned out to be BSE positive both times. It is bizarre that the accuracy of the rapid tests is different on the north side of the 49th parallel than on the south side.

For updates on U.S. testing see:

http://www.aphis.usda.gov/lpa/issues/bse_testing/test_results.html

[whiteface]

You think that is bizarre farmers-son? Are you on crack?! You haven't been living under a rock, you know the drill by now! Nothing bizarre about it! There is no BSE south of the border, get a mitt and get in the game already. They will not find BSE no matter how hard they "look" unless it suits them to have a case like it did in December of '03, just days away from a border announcement they had to step in and do something to stop an opening, a "Canadian BSE positive" should save them and it did. Unfortunatly, unbeknownst to them it backfired in their face and just the first of many the way they're handeling this.
No, farmers-son, no "false positives" any time soon, doesn't suit them, even though Japan is on to their bull and just because the same tests work here the same "sound science" is broken down there. Won't happen, something else made in Canada will have to first. Have a good day all!

[jensend]

farmers_son i think the us can have negative ihc tests for as long as they want just because that's what they want. if you look at the recent wto final ruling for brazil and some other nations against the cotton section of the american farm bill and the american reaction to it (head of the senate ag. committee said it doesn't matter what the wto says the farm bill is legal) we can see that the americans are not in the mood to be reasonable or honest with anybody. the s. americans said canada was too soft to deal with the us and they've been right. there are many nations willing to let the americans take an isolationist course because it only strengthens opposition to things like the byrd amendment. canada should be looking to become more independent of american decisions too. the missile defence decision was a good start because it gives notice that there has to be some quid pro quo. if we would announce a more rigourous bse testing regime it would be interesting to see the reaction. we would be more aligned with the rest of the world and might signal to others we want to diversify our interests and international relationships. more trade actions against the states would then be possible and that would be the only language they understand. bush has just about overplayed his hand with his recent appointments to the un and the world bank. i would think by the end of his term the rest of the world will signal to the us that as powerful a nation as it is it is not more powerful than the rest of the world and china will be willing to flex its muscle, economically and militarily, as the smericans isolate themselves more. bush tries to portray himself as bringing stability but in reality he is regionalizing the rest of the world against the americans.

[whiteface]

Awesome post, jensend!