Tories Want Into Gong Show

[kpb]

farmers_son, The reality is that we are not going to get producer-owned packing plants in Canada, we are not going to get government support from any quarter and even our producer groups are not going to fiscally support the idea of producer-owned plants.

I wish it wasn't so but if wishes were horses...Last fall I posted that new packing plants would not make it in this country because there is no outside money (banks, investors, etc) going to put money into a plant because it is seen as too risky for too little return, especially with the border maybe opening and therefore bringing in more competition. You can see that this remains the case--if there was financial merit to domestic packing plants you can bet that outside money would be found.

As for producers they either don't have the money or don't have the inclination either to take a risk on a plant. There are dozens of proposals out there--there might be three that get off the ground and, remember we are two years into this crisis--are we further ahead? I don't think so.

The reality is that if the border opens this year, all will be forgotten and the status quo will prevail. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that within five years from today there will be even less domestic packing capacity than now. With Cargill and Tyson upping capacity and buying domestic producers, I would think their share of the domestic market has actually increased over the past two years. And why not with the money they are making?

It is not my nature to be doom and gloom but I see no hope for increased domestic packing. Our only hope for increased bids on our cattle is to get the border open and get some U.S. buyers. It's pathetic, I know, and I wish it weren't so but I like to deal with what is, not with what I hope for.


kpb

[farmers_son]

Kpb: While I share your frustration, I do not agree with your view of the future.

Why producer packing plants? It’s not to get our animals slaughtered. We do not have to build a plant to have that happen. Most likely the border will open to live animals before a plant could be built anyway.

Producers need to own their own packing plants so they get paid fairly for the product they sell, which is not happening now. Canadian producers need their own packing plants so we are not so completely dependent upon the U.S. which has clearly shown what it really thinks of an integrated North American market for beef.

I would disagree that Canada will have less domestic packing capacity in five years than today. I think our industry is at a crossroads and that there is no going back to May 19, 2003. We will have increased packing capacity, for me the question is who will own it. At the present there are government policies in place that favour the big packers to the detriment of the cattle producer who wishes to integrate upwards closer to the consumer. If those policies can be addressed, for example by changing the regulations preventing provincially inspected meat to be sold across borders, or by direct financial assistance for producers so there is a level playing field with the big packers who have benefited from a government setup monopoly for years, than there is real hope for producers to actually sell beef and get paid beef price, something they are barred from doing now (at least on a cost effective scale).

Change is inevitable even though inertia is preventing the change from happening as quick as many of us would like. But the change will still happen. Are we any farther ahead than we were two years ago? Well, we are a whole lot smarter. I think producers have learned a lot about their beef industry, the rose colored glasses are gone. If producers give up trying then maybe the lessons learned will have been for nothing but change can happen and has happened before. I do not think the change will be gradual, it will be sudden and it will be dramatic. My view of the future in ten years sees a completely different beef industry in which the producers play a much more involved role linking the producer to the consumer. Notice I did not mention Cargill or Tyson in my vision of the future. Believe it or not, they might not be there.

[grassfarmer]

I like your ideas and vision of the future farmers_son but I fear the reality will be more like kpb predicts. I like the idea of producers controlling the processing sector rather than building the new plants themselves. Isn't that what Canada Farm Direct is trying to do? buy out a large slaughter player (presumably XL) and redirect their marketing to Asia rather than the US.
Problem with this kind of scenario is you can only buy these things if they are for sale. I doubt Cargill or Tyson will voluntarily sell their plants to Canadian producers. Kind of like the border only opening once the US decides it is to their advantage to do so it is clear these corporations will only give up or move out when their is no more money to be made easily.
Ostercamp uses the clever analogy of the American fur trappers who moved on once they had depleted the natural resource.
Let's hope they don't move on because they have ruined every beef producer in Canada to the extent that there are not worthwhile numbers of cattle being produced here to justify their operations.

[cakadu]

I suppose when you look at it, every vote for the Tories will count, so they will try to get the vote in the west, but what they really want and NEED is the vote on Bay Street. Up until now, they have not had the wherewithall to get those votes and if they couldn't do it last time, will there be any luck this time? Call them by whatever name you want, but they are still reform - which Ontarians have pretty much rejected in how many elections now?

Let's face it - the rural vote is less than 3% and getting closer to 1% every day.

kpb - do you think that there would be better luck in getting domestic capacity up and running if there were already markets waiting in the wings? Are all these other countries waiting to see what the US does before they make a move?

One of the things I wonder about is whether or not there would be a move towards not using hormones in order to get beef into the EU. What sorts of things are being done in that regard and have all the EU countries banned our beef now for this presumed BSE crisis?

I know that many people believe that the hormone issue is just a way to keep our beef out, but what would happen if we did what the customer wanted and didn't use hormones? When you think about it, it would move closer to what some have been calling for in terms of a managed supply of cattle because there would be operations that couldn't make even a razor thin margin without the use of artifical hormones.

I do agree wholeheartedly that we are not looking at the same world that we were almost 2 years ago now and I would like to think that we have learned a great deal. I just wonder what it will take to make the paradigm shift to doing things differently as knowing and doing are two totally different animals.

[cakadu]

Linda, I think that the Conservatives have a slim chance of a majority government this time around, if only because some of the NDP supporters and likely a number of Liberal supporters across the country are both sick and tired of the corruption and also realize that the NDP will not form a government so votes may as well go elsewhere.
It is unfortunate that there will likely be very few votes from Quebec for any party other than the Bloc.
Anne McLellan was holding court yesterday saying how she supports Paul Martin and she intends on running again ( no surprise there ), and her opponent from last year has already said he fully intends on running whenever an election is called.

The worst crime in all this mess is the cost to the taxpayer, of the scandal and also another election.

[greybeard]

I agree with farmers-son that our industry is at a crossroads and we can’t go back to the way things were, as it’s probably not there any more.
In the past we were the same as the R-CALFer’s and looked at the auction barn, feedlot operator, or packer as the source of money in the cattle business. I think we have to remember that the only source of money is the consumer (and the Government). Since BSE there has actually been a net gain in money going into beef as retail is at an all time high and the government has supplemented it with billions more. Where did this money go? Not to the producer due to an imbalance in packing capacity. Yet prices for beef are so good it attracts offshore product when our cows are near worthless.
I have also come to realize that a token investment in packing capacity will not save our operations. If you sell 10 head at a better price, that won’t significantly affect your bottom line. We need to make an investment proportional to our herd size. Where does the money come from? Catch 22 is it must come from borrowing against your equity. That is gone because we haven’t been getting our share.

[cakadu]

How many of you think there will be any kind of turnout for this election? Will it be higher than in years past because of the growing disillusionment with the Liberals?

It seems that each government has its own scandals to deal with and the more shrewd of the politicians know how to get someone else to bear the brunt of what they did. Look at Mulroney - he got out of the way and Kim Campbell was so blinded by her ambition that she couldn't see anything but the PM initials behind her name. I suppose to her credit she did get those initials, even if for a brief time.

Now we have Chretien's legacy being unfolded her and Martin's desire to be PM blinded him to certain realities as well and he will pay the price for what Chretien did. So much for having someone waiting in the wings to take over your position.

Grassfarmer, I do agree that agriculture needs all the help that it can get, but posturing for votes is not going to help us in the slightest. The whole BSE matter has gone from science to politics to the legal system and that could take forever to clear, given the legal posturing that can take place.

Now Belinda may very well be a savvy businesswoman, but I'm sure that she has absolutely no idea about agriculture and what we need in order to get us out of this mess i.e. new leadership at the helm of the groups that presumably have government's ear, the ability to capture more of the value of the goods that we produce, etc.

Who knows, maybe some of the big farm groups throwing their hats into the ring against the legal action may have some positive outcomes.

[cakadu]

Linda, the news this morning indicates that Martin is attempting to arrange a meeting with Jack Layton, so you can bet he will promise whatever the NDP wants to ensure they don't vote in favor of any non confidence motion.
As far as voter turn out goes, it will depend on the time of year. Summer elections aren't a good thing because folks are away on vacation etc.

As usual the west will likely have a fairly good turnout and certainly will not support the Liberals but who knows what Ontario will do .

This country cannot continue to be governed the way we are, it is hurting Canadians and certainly is not helping us internationally.

[cowman]

Well I guess we know that if Stephen Harper walked on water...Linda sure as hell won't be voting for him!...because he is reform!
Too bad, as he is the only viable choice right now? But wait we can vote for the NDP, right? Yea right...liberal lite!
I wonder what was so bad about reform? Didn't they advocate social conservative values? fiscal retraint? smaller government? Honestly and integrity in government? Were these horribly wrong?
Is a bunch of out and out theives a better choice?....apparently.

[cakadu]

Now cowman you're putting words in my mouth. I haven't agreed with reform since day one and certainly would never vote for our MP. The party may have had a chance but they backtracked on some of the things that they said that they would never do i.e. vote for pensions and a raise in the pension. It was okay while they were in their first term, but after some of them were assured of the magic 6 years, then voila, we are voting to have pensions and raises to those pensions. It was also okay to say those things while they didn't have a prayer of getting in and they were building their party. Now look at the continued infighting amongst the conservatives/reform/alliance.

We know that you just trade one den of thieves for another - it is all a matter of degree.

We probably sit on different sides of the fence because you are for separation and I am not - we've been through it many times in other threads. It doesn't make either one of us wrong or right - we are exercising our rights to vote for whom we believe is the best candidate and so far the reform have not been the best candidates - from my viewpoint. I don't think we should knock one another's viewpoints and feelings regarding elected officials and political parties because it is a personal choice and what is right for you, might not be right for me and vice versa. At least I get out and vote with what I can live with.

Maybe this will finally be the rhino party's year!!! ;-)