NMA Appeal-July 13

[farmers_son]

The hearing date for both the USDA appeal and the National Meat Association appeal of the preliminary injunction keeping the U.S. border closed to live Canadian cattle has been set. The cases will be heard in the 9th Circuit Court of Appeal on July 13 in Seattle, Washington. It’s expected that both appeals will be considered together. The 9th Circuit Court is based in San Francisco but hearings may be held in any one of a number of cities within its jurisdiction.

While the hearing is scheduled for July 13, it can take some time for the Appeal Court to render its decision.

A synopsis of this case:

National Meat Association Appeal of District Court Decisions

On March 9 the NMA appealed Judge Cebull’s denial of intervenor status to the U.S. Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit, in San Francisco. At the same time NMA also appealed the preliminary injunction. NMA requested that these appeals be heard on an emergency basis.
NMA also requested that R-CALF be required to post a bond to cover the economic impairment suffered by NMA members for the time that the preliminary injunction is in effect, should the Courts ultimately deny R-CALF’s petition.
On March 11 the U.S. Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit, agreed to hear the NMA’s appeal on an expedited briefing schedule.
NMA filed its opening brief March 21. The Ninth Circuit denied NMA’s request to file USDA’s administrative record, effectively meaning that NMA’s appeal is limited to the question of intervenor status. The appeal of the preliminary injunction will have to be heard in the context of USDA’s appeal.
USDA opposed NMA’s petition to become an intervenor arguing, consistent with its previous position, that the USDA was in the best position to defend its rule.

[15444]

I find it interesting that the 67 organizations that are seeking to file a brief of support for R-CALF represent most of the cattle states in the US. Makes me wonder where NCBA gets their support for an open border from? Anyways, regardless of that little bit, it's all good news. The 3 judges that are to head the case are named in the briefs from the 9th Court on their site. Hopefully they don't take too much time to form a decision. Would be pretty interesting to how fast we could ship over the border if they made a Canuck-favoured decision a week before the trial on July 27. We have about 30 head (steers and heifers, 8-21 months) that could go as soon as they are CFIA checked/spayed/branded. And living only 30 minutes from one of the approved crossings for resumed live beef exports really sweetens the deal, as I imagine we could be rid of all these feeders in a few days if we were really on the ball. The reliance on timely CFIA inspection and trucking would really be the only problems.

I still see the border opening as the best and only really decent idea yet. I read some of the CCA's proposed plans if boxed beef is banned and I don't know if I should laugh or cry. Most of their proposals would be too little-too late to help anyone.

[grassfarmer]

15444, that's an intersting point about the 67 organisations supporting R-Calf - I think NCBA get their
"support" (read orders) from the big packers kind of like the ABP in Alberta. This all supports farmers_son argument in another thread that it is US government policy to keep the border closed to live cattle. I think that is obvious, a country with contingency plans in place to invade and overthrow the regimes of about 1/4 of the worlds countries at 24 hours notice wouldn't let a bunch of hick ranchers and a tame judge set US foreign trade policy if if were really against Government wishes.

As for how fast/ how dear these calves would get if the border opens I wouldn't get too excited. If the border opens the beurocrats on both sides will take weeks and possibly months to get the procedure running to handle even the numbers that crossed the border in the past. Then you have to find buyers and establish a price. I personally think spayed heifers won't move - the cost of the procedure is too high when the cattle can be kept here and sold into the same slaughter market for the same boxed beef price. The Americans could own them here if they wanted to, they don't have to cross the border to be American owned. I see this as just another protectionist step to slow down future imports of live cattle. I'll post a new thread to highlight some new figures on corporate consolodation in the US which should give us some cause for concern about the possible better prices achievable with an open border.

[15444]

I don't understand why it would take months to get things rolling. Everyone was basically ready for March 7th. CCA had a 3-4 page? letter, released before March 7th, talking about what needed to be done to ship UTM animals across I (ie. who to contact, where to place brands, etc.). To my way of thinking, it should be as simple as if the last few months never occured at all.

I don't think it will be hard to find buyers. I would bet that by two days after an open border, line-ups of double decks for American feedlots would be at almost every sales barn waiting for guys to bring their cattle. My approach would be for each producer to bring his/her UTM animals to the nearest sales barn, CFIA vet checks the teeth and overall health etc etc, ones clear to go get branded/spayed and go into a new pen....ones that don't go back to the producers original pen at the mart. The ones cleared to go are ran through a scale and the auction begins for that particular lot. The mart takes a healthy commission per head for allowing the mart as a collection/inspection point and everyone is happy. Marts forget about regular auctions for a couple weeks and allow their yards to be filled 24/7 with cattle arriving. Sell cattle from 9 till 9 and then let the CFIA guys catch up overnight, checking teeth, etc. 4 CFIA vets for each auction mart that are working over a 24 hour period inspecting cattle...run on 6 hour shifts. See 30,000 head of cattle run through some of the bigger marts in a week.

It's a dream....but I am having such fun :P

[grassfarmer]

You are looking at it from a "working" persons viewpoint - Government people don't think like that. They take weeks to do what we would finish before breakfast.
I'm reminded of the fuss last year in Alberta when Ralph Klein came out saying that farmers weren't submitting enough 3D cattle for testing - can't remember the timescale exactly but it had been in place officially for a while. A friend of mine and one other high profile person in the Province had each a cow that qualified for the program but they were continually told that they couldn't accept them ...yet. Severely p###d off as farmers were getting lambasted for not supporting the program they threatened to go to the media with the story - at which point there was a rapid vet training program to instruct them how to take brain samples. Until they made a fuss and threatened to go public the beaurocrats hadn't actually got around to organising the instruction program for training the vets on procedure!!
This is the reality of dealing with the beaurocrats, CFIA and Government. Nothing ever moves fast with them.

[farmers_son]

15444: You wondered where the NCBA got their support for an open border from.

See: http://www.r-calfusa.com/BSE/9th%20Circuit%20Amicus%20Brief,%20NCBA,%20AFBF.pdf

List of supporters of the Amicus brief the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association(“NCBA”), the American Farm Bureau Federation (“AFBF”), the
National Pork Producers Council filed in support of the USDA rule pasted below:

1. Alabama Cattlemen’s Association
2. Alaska Farm Bureau
3. Arizona Cattle Growers Association
4. Colorado Cattlemen’s Association
5. Colorado Farm Bureau
6. Colorado Livestock Association
7. Florida Cattlemen’s Association
8. Florida Farm Bureau Federation
9. Georgia Cattlemen’s Association
10. Hawaii Cattlemen’s Council
11. Idaho Farm Bureau Federation
12. Illinois Agricultural Association d/b/a
Illinois Farm Bureau
13. Illinois Beef Association
14. Indiana Beef Cattle Association
15. Indiana Farm Bureau, Inc.
16. Iowa Cattlemen’s Association
17. Iowa Farm Bureau Federation
18. Kansas Farm Bureau
19. Kansas Livestock Association
20. Kentucky Cattlemen’s Association
21. Louisiana Cattlemen’s Association
22. Michigan Cattlemen’s Association
23. Michigan Farm Bureau
24. Minnesota State Cattlemen’s Association
25. Mississippi Cattlemen’s Association
26. Missouri Cattlemen’s Association
27. Missouri Farm Bureau Federation
28. Nebraska Cattlemen, Inc.
29. Nebraska Farm Bureau Federation
30. New York Farm Bureau, Inc.
31. North Carolina Cattlemen’s Association
32. North Carolina Farm Bureau Federation, Inc.
33. Ohio Cattlemen’s Association
34. Ohio Farm Bureau Federation, Inc.
35. Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association
36. Pennsylvania Cattlemen’s Association
37. South Carolina Cattlemen’s Association
38. Tennessee Farm Bureau Federation
39. Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers
40. Texas Cattle Feeders Association
41. Texas Farm Bureau
42. Utah Cattlemen’s Association
43. Utah Farm Bureau Federation
44. Virginia Cattlemen’s Association
45. Washington Cattle Feeders Association
46. Wisconsin Cattlemen’s Association
47. Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation

[15444]

Well farmers_son, I am thoroughly confused now, as the lastest papers filed in the 9th Court by R-CALF list all those organizations as supporters of R-CALF.

[farmers_son]

The list of R-Calf supporters can be seen at:

http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/ca9/Documents.nsf/54dbe3fb372dcb6c88256ce50065fcb8/134c98ea28ef26cd88256fcb007db929/$FILE/3_05-35264.pdf

Although the names of some of the organizations are similar, I did not see any duplication or names appearing on both sides. A few of the major R-Calf supporters:

Consumer Federation of America
National Farmers Union
Public Citizen
The Organization for Competitive Markets
Center for Food Safety
National Catholic Rural Life Conference
National Farmers Organization


Not that it would not surprise me if the Americans were talking out of both sides of the mouth at once...

[kpb]

I agree with 15444, the live cattle will move quickly once the border is open. Contrary to what grassfarmer says there will be no shortage of buyers for Canadian feeders. I really don't understand grassfarmer's statement that buyers will have to be found--there will be U.S. buyers for our feeders at every auction mart.

kpb

[grassfarmer]

Surely there will be a levelling of trade between the two countries if the border were to open to live cattle though? Granted US cattle are trading at a significant premium to Canadian ones with a closed border. The day the border opens, if fats are allowed to cross that will equalise the price of fats pretty fast. With that in mind although US feedlots have been scarce of cattle recently and will be seeking replacement cattle there will also presumably be a drop in feeder prices a.) because of the new supply bolstering numbers and
b.) because feeder and fat futures will drop giving the buyers a clue that their gravy train of the last two years is pulling into the terminus.
That's just simple supply and demand isn't it?

[15444]

One thing I didn't comment on from grassfarmer's first post is my idea that I don't think American packers will favour keeping cattle in Canada if they don't have too. Keeping cattle in a country that doesn't have the packing capacity to handle everything it produces, just doesn't make sense. Take them back to a country that has ample slaughter space and can kill fats on a short notice compared to Canada.

I personally would rather sell to an American buyer that is taking the cattle I sold him, out of the country...rather than feeding them in Canada. Get the buggers out of the country, rather than have them stick around and compete for slaughter spots later on and drive down prices from oversupply.

Their are only 3 solutions to this whole mess: bury 'em, export 'em, or box 'em. Everyone else must be looking for a 4th solution as it would explain why nothing is happening.

[farmers_son]

Could it be possible that the CFIA will secretly agree to ration the movement of live cattle into the U.S. to protect U.S. live cattle prices and Canadian feedlots? I would expect to see a few token loads of live cattle move south at first then the regulatory process will be structured so as to protect their markets and to protect Canadian feedlots as well. The federal government has not spent billions to shore up about 100 big Alberta feedlots just to have them sit empty because they cannot compete with American lots which have been making record profits for the last two years.

Based on what I have been told about the FMD situation in the 1950s, our markets will not instantly bounce up to U.S. equivalent prices. That will take several years after the border opens to live cattle.

[kpb]

grassfarmer, our prices will move up a lot when the border opens. Firstly, the number of cattle that will cross the line will not have a great impact in overall North American prices, despite what R-Calf thinks. Secondly we have a whole lot of room to move upwards. I don't think we'll make up the whole premium at once--although we may--but the big basis that exists now will largely disappear. That is real supply and demand--we have the supply and the U.S. has the demand so you can expect prices to go up by quite a bit.

farmers_son, you may be correct about prices not equalizing completely right away but I'm starting to think they may because I believe the market has to be efficient. Because of good transportation and communication systems now, most commodity markets are efficient. Anything that distorts the market (unaccountable price differences between free trade areas for example) is rapidly remedied these days through the use of arbitrage and forward contracting or the rapid movement of goods to fill the price vacuum. I'm not sure yet but we could revert quickly back to the normal basis between the two countries.


kpb

[kato]

I can't see the CFIA rationing exports, because there is really no way for them to do that.

What will slow things, if anything is the fact that the inspection process itself is cumbersome. They have to be looked at a lot more carefully than before (mouthing, identification etc.), which will slow it down. The actual border crossing procedure will probably be a lot slower too, because you can be sure they'll be looking at them pretty hard there. This means appointments to cross will involve more waiting. I know for a fact that there are several USDA vets who just love to turn loads around for whatever whim occurs, so they will be extra slow and difficult to deal with.

One example, in the past, if you had a load of hereford steers, you would list the tag number range, and the general red white face description for the load, and that would be it. Now each animal is listed individually, with a description, and they want the CCIA numbers listed in numerical order on the export paper. This means you take the list down, rearrange it in order, and then write out the papers. One mistake, one number entered wrong, and that load doesn't get over the border.

But if there is money to be made, they will go south, we can bet on it.

[Willowcreek]

Kato- I don't know what the process will be about fats ready to slaughter- but when the proposed border rules first came out I talked to a small feedlot operator (10,000 head) I know in Neb that said the USDA rules for the feedlots that feed Canadian calves are so stringent and require so much government inspection and paperwork that it makes it impractical to feed Canadian cattle...He said he could only see some of the large corporate feedlots that would be willing to jump thru all the hoops and strings to get certified...