So… Does the Border Open or Not?

[grassfarmer]

It's a rather bold assumption f_s that there will be no consumer reaction to a domestic BSE case - it depends what happens next, whether they decide to admit there were other cows fraudulently tested negative that were in fact positive or whether new cases turn up. I hope this doesn't happen but I've seen it before and public reaction can change very quickly with the right chain of events and media badgering. The fact that this case was reinvestigated ultimately as a result of a consumer groups concerns shows that at least some consumers are aware of this issue.
Emrald1, yes it's nice to know that CBEF are spending our checkoff dollars traversing the world looking for new customers for the product of messrs Cargill and Tyson. Shame the producer doesn't get to share the bounty due to the monopoly of the US packers.
Still at least now the ABP chairman is speaking against the Cargill takeover of Better Beef - how he could have welcomed the takeover initially is beyond me. Maybe he got a phone call from Mr Tyson?

[cowman]

I would expect the various consumer groups in the US will start to ask some tough questions...real quick?...about how the USDA has been handling things?
I mean, why wouldn't they? R-CALF has been actively promoting the idea how unsafe beef is and now the chickens have come home to roost? I mean when a producer group states their product is unsafe and the USDA are a pack of liars, why wouln't the consumer say "Hey wait a minute....this product might kill me?"
I always wondered whether the R-CALF members were complete idiots by slamming their own product? I guess we will soon see how the American consumer responds to that message! It would be helpful if Bullard and Leo shut their mouths for awhile...but I doubt that will happen?
I suspect PETA is happy as a lark over this?

[farmers_son]

I did not see any adverse consumer reaction to the Washington Holstein which made its way into the food chain and was quite widely distributed. Beef prices remained at historically high levels and consumption certainly kept up with supply.

This animal should barely make it onto the radar screen, it really is a non issue as far as food safety goes. Risk materials are removed from all cows in North America, there is way more testing being done than before and even if you cannot trust the Americans tests there is absolutely no doubt that consumers can trust Canadian tests which clearly show the incidence of BSE in Canada and by inference North America, while it exists, is at extremely low levels and should be decreasing due to a feed ban that has been in place for approaching ten years.

While the Consumers Union did send a letter to the USDA is that what caused the retest? They certainly want to take credit. Might be just another pawn like R-Calf to deflect attention away from the political maneuverings of the USDA and the Bush Administration who I still think is in 100% control of the BSE situation including the closure of the border to our live cattle. They are the ones calling the shots, determining the timing of the announcements and the timing of the Court Cases, controlling the outcome of Senate votes, managing the BSE spin for the press. Machiavelli would be impressed with how the U.S. is working the BSE crisis to their advantage on all fronts.

However my impression remains that the U.S has gained all the advantage it can from the obviously uncalled for, unfair and protectioninst restrictions in beef and live cattle trade with Canada. U.S. interests are now best served by at least a partial resumption of trade to demontrate to U.S. consumers that North American beef is safe.

[grassfarmer]

Farmers_son I was just going by the information you posted on June 19th which appears to show that the consumer group was ultimately behind the retest.

You said "I have pasted a link to a letter that a group called the Consumers Union sent to the USDA questioning the results of the testing done in 2004 on this cow.
See: http://www.consumersunion.org/campaigns/USDA.pdf
In response, the USDA sent a three-page letter refusing to take further action.
The Office of the Inspector General (OIG) then requested the further tests which resulted in the announcement of a positive BSE cow in the United States."

As far as consumers believing the "sound science" of BSE, food safety and SRM removal I'm reminded of the quote:
"In this age of 2 second newsclips we live in an era in which perceptions are real and facts are negotiable"
In my experience this is very true of BSE and consumer perception.

[farmers_son]

There should be no mistake about the fact that the Consumers Union is not the farmers friend. The Consumers Union has joined forces with R-Calf to put of the message that beef is not safe. The CU is at best a fringe group. I heard them speak on the radio and they are more than happy to take credit for the retest of this cow. And it seems as if the Bush administration is more than happy to let the CU take credit as producers groups such as the NCBA voice their unhappiness that the retest was done. It could be that the U.S. system is just very responsive to fringe groups like R-Calf and the Consumers Union but it also could be the government uses these groups for its own purpose while pursing the governments own agenda.

Whatever the reason this cow got retested, the timing is sure interesting. Only weeks after the OIE announces new relaxed rules for BSE classifying boneless beef as non-risk and creating official new designations for low risk countries like the U.S. not to mention just weeks before the two July court cases. The coincidences are absolutely incredible. The CU raised its concerns months ago, action is just taken now.

The U.S. government moves in mysterious ways. Government seems confident that they can give these fringe groups, Consumers Union and R-Calf a higher profile yet still manage the spin in the press. There is a lot riding on the outcome, on both sides of the border.

[farmers_son]

Checked the CME Aug. Live cattle futures and in mid day trading they are up 70 cents to 80.60 after Fridays close of 79.90.

[cowman]

I suspect you are at least partly right, farmers son, about the US government "managing" the situation. However, when you get a group openly questioning the integrity of the USDA, then you might have a problem?
I have always said R-CALF was playing russian roulette when they were telling consumers that Canadian beef was diseased and had the potential to kill them? Now they have taken it a step further and said the USDA are a bunch of liars and you can't trust the AMERICAN beef supply!
It is a sad thing when a group hates the packers and Canadian beef producers so much that they will cut their own throats to prove their point!

[madcow]

It's been a rough old ride over the past two years.But wheather the border opens or not isn't the biggest issue here anymore is it?How do we claw back our fair share of thr retail $'s??.If the border opens and the U.S. short supply eases up demand ,then price drops, where does that leave us?

[cowman]

madcow: I get out and about quite a bit and I talk to a lot of people. The general consensus I am hearing is no matter what happens...the beef business will never be what it was prior to BSE.
I believe that is true.
I suspect if the border really opens to how it was pre-BSE, we will see a decent increase in prices, especially for the cow trade? This will allow a lot of producers to exit the industry...with the shirt on their backs! So many people are so sick of this business, they are just waiting for the chance to bail!
I believe we will see an exodus of producers very much like we saw in the hog business? Most of the little guys will decide to go?
I don't believe we will effectively reduce the Canadian cow herd...just the number of producers! The drive to big cow herds will really pick up?
Of course with the concentration of the cow/calf industry you will see a more efficient system evolving? The end of the small time purebred breeder will almost surely happen, except for the truly superior breeder of exceptional livestock. The big cowman will want to do all his bull shopping at one place and you will see the further rise of the large seedstock producer, who will offer a variety of breeds and crosses. And I also believe the prices will also come down to a more realistic number?
BSE will bring a revolution in the cow/calf business. In reality it will be just like what happened in grain production and the hog business? Oh well it sure was fun while it lasted!

[farmers_son]

Madcow: I do not think we have ever received our fair share of the retail dollar. Has nothing to do with BSE.

Yes, the last two years have been tough but not because of BSE. Our beef was trading for record high prices. However the U.S. closed the border to live cattle cutting us off from our source of competition allowing the packers to fix the price of live cattle just high enough to avoid intervention from the Canadian government.

Opening the border will help. I do not expect U.S. live prices to drop below where they are now. But no one should be fooled into thinking that the price we will receive will be “fair” after the border opens any more than it was fair before there was BSE in North America.

Remember the U.S. has a number of restrictions on live cattle moving into the U.S. under the proposed rule even if the border did open. Those restrictions put our industry at a disadvantage and will lower our price of live cattle even though the U.S. has admitted they have BSE too. There are no similar restrictions planned or announced on U.S. live cattle entering Canada. We would presume that at some point in the future all these BSE restrictions would come off but the reality they should be off today not next year.

Once the border opens Canadian cow calf producers still will not receive their fair share of the retail beef dollar. We will continue to receive just enough money to keep producing more weaned calves and that is all. A marginal break even situation. That is not going to change.

The packers will continue to pay us just enough to keep us raising more cheap calves and nothing more. The packers will pass their losses along to us but never their profits. If you can raise that calf $50 cheaper than the next guy maybe you make a little but a little is all you will ever make. If you want that share of the retail beef dollar you mentioned you need to get involved in the beef side, not the live cattle side.


If you want to share in the profits that can be realized by adding value and participating further up the value chain to the retail level you will not be able to do that by selling your calves in the fall at the local auction. It was that way before BSE, it is that way now and it will be that way after the border opens. Producers of live cattle will not receive their fair share of the food dollar. Their returns will continue to be marginal, break even and subsistence.