So… Does the Border Open or Not?

[farmers_son]

We Canadian cattle producers already knew the U.S. had BSE. The BSE positive cow in the U.S. is only of importance to Canadian cattle producers to the extent that it helps or hinders the opening of the border to live cattle.

So which is it? Open sooner or closed longer? I see that there is only one factor driving the timing of the opening of the U.S. border, and that factor is U.S. self interest. Certainly it is not science.

I have considered trade with Japan which is certainly part of the equation. U.S. political pressure on Canada on various issues such as missile defence cannot be overlooked either. Garnering support from American beef producers who are enjoying record high prices, yes that too. But since yesterday the number one issue on the BSE front is consumer confidence in beef.

It is my bold prediction that the July 13 appeal of the R-Calf injunction will see the border open to live cattle imports from Canada. To do otherwise would drastically undermine U.S. confidence in the safety of their beef. For the U.S. to say that our live cattle are dangerous or a food safety risk is detrimental to efforts to convince consumers U.S. beef is safe. Also part of that is the need to lower retail prices of beef so consumers stay with the product and not partly or totally switch to chicken/pork. Opening the border to live cattle is the only solution that works to further the self interests of the Americans. The issue has already been decided. The 3 appellant judges of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeal will issue their pronouncement on July 13.

Get the trucks lined up.

I would hedge my usually reliable prediction by saying it all depends on us not having a BSE positive between now and then.

[whiteface]

While I for one am definatly glad they found one and justice is sweet...
and that I flung one at kbp for not allowing us to get too cocky, I will say there is some agonizing truth to his post under the "BSE positive cow." We all think this will help us and it should for all kinds of reasons that make sense to us, but remember these are proud and not particularly logical Americans we're talking about. I don't have as much faith as you f_s, I wouldn't go "starting your engines" anytime real soon. Could get quite a bit more ugly before it gets better. You know what Americans do when they feel threatened or violated, those lunatics may just bomb us! Have a good day all!

[15444]

I don't understand where anyone figures this is a bad day for Canada. Please explain your thinking to me. To my way of thinking, the worst thing that could happen is boxed beef could be shut down. But wait a second!...R-CALF was gonna try and get that done before this 2nd case anyways!!. I might agree that this will hurt consumer confidence in the US...but who cares? That would only hurt the pocket books of Cargill and Tyson anyways! Instead on maing $400 profit on a carcass...they only make $150? Canadian consumers are not so stupid, and I had heard alot after the announcement of the re-testing, that were so happy to finally see the US BS fly back in it's face.

This 2nd case makes the Americans start thinking twice about testing, which in turn, makes the CFIA lackies think twice about testing. Canada has over-achieved it's BSE testing quota for this year. A new live test has been announced. At least now, it sounds like there is some shifting and progress being made.

I think we have July 13th in the bag....but July 27th???...depends how much Cebull likes his new Mercedes..courtesy of R-CALF. I agree with f_s.....lets get those trucks in running order.

[whiteface]

I so hope you two are right!!! Hey Aaron...I sent you an email a week ago, you must not have got it??? Hope to hear from you! Have a good day all!

[grassfarmer]

The obvious dangers 15444 are:
a) that US consumers decrease consumption of beef which lowers the price of beef in the US and hence Canada. Don't kid yourself if this happened that the packers would cut their margins and keep paying us the same for fats - why would they as the captive supply situation still exists?

b) The USA loses further export markets or gets signs that Japan, S Korea or any other potential export destination will extend their bans on imports of US beef due to the discovery of this new case. This would clearly strengthen the calls to keep Canadian beef out of the US either as live cattle or boxed beef. I have never believed that the small R-Calf group are really behind keeping the border closed.
Hopefully the optimists wishes will prevail but I'm certainly not expecting any positive changes any time soon.

[grassfarmer]

The beef industry in the US has got to assure the consumer about the safety of the product. It will be interesting to see if there is the overwhelming support of the industry south of the border that we saw here in 2003.

I, for one, am not going to spend my calf check for this fall until I have it in hand, and am budgetting for the same sized check as last year, anything more will be a real bonus. Actually, not a bonus at all, we all deserve one heck of a lot more than last year !!!!

[15444]

whiteface, got your e-mail....but as with many others, I have yet to respond to them. Hope to maybe later tonight.

[whiteface]

Thanks Aaron! Can't wait to hear from you! Have a good night!

[farmers_son]

Grassfarmer: The U.S. BSE positive almost did not make the news in the U.S. It is hard to find a news story on this cow on any of the major U.S. Internet news providers. I do not anticipate a consumer backlash. U.S. CME Live Cattle Futures had settled at around the 80 cent mark, roughly the same as last March when speculators were anticipating the opening of the U.S. border to live cattle.

The talks with Japan included importing beef from Canada. Japan made it clear they considered the U.S. to be part of a North American market that had a low incidence of BSE. Although there may be some public gesturing to assure Japanese consumers everything is being done and all is well I expect the process to allow North American beef into Japan will continue with no ill effects from announcement.

I agree that R-Calf was only a pawn used to deflect blame away from the U.S. administration who were dragging their feet to open the border until trade resumed with Japan. I do not think the focus is exports anymore, the U.S. beef export market is insignificant compared to the domestic market, about 90% of consumption. What kind of message does it send U.S. consumers if the appeal court even delays announcing their decision? It must appear to be a no-brainer, an obvious miscarriage of justice that the border did not open last March. If the U.S. wants to keep their consumer’s confidence, then they must lift the injunction on Canadian live cattle immediately and work should begin the next day on resuming trade in cow beef and live cows born after the feed ban.

[farmers_son]

hope you are correct farmers_son, and I do think it is imperative that our commodity organizations continue to develop markets for our beef around the world.
Hopefully there is light at the end of this long tunnel!!

[grassfarmer]

It's a rather bold assumption f_s that there will be no consumer reaction to a domestic BSE case - it depends what happens next, whether they decide to admit there were other cows fraudulently tested negative that were in fact positive or whether new cases turn up. I hope this doesn't happen but I've seen it before and public reaction can change very quickly with the right chain of events and media badgering. The fact that this case was reinvestigated ultimately as a result of a consumer groups concerns shows that at least some consumers are aware of this issue.
Emrald1, yes it's nice to know that CBEF are spending our checkoff dollars traversing the world looking for new customers for the product of messrs Cargill and Tyson. Shame the producer doesn't get to share the bounty due to the monopoly of the US packers.
Still at least now the ABP chairman is speaking against the Cargill takeover of Better Beef - how he could have welcomed the takeover initially is beyond me. Maybe he got a phone call from Mr Tyson?

[cowman]

I would expect the various consumer groups in the US will start to ask some tough questions...real quick?...about how the USDA has been handling things?
I mean, why wouldn't they? R-CALF has been actively promoting the idea how unsafe beef is and now the chickens have come home to roost? I mean when a producer group states their product is unsafe and the USDA are a pack of liars, why wouln't the consumer say "Hey wait a minute....this product might kill me?"
I always wondered whether the R-CALF members were complete idiots by slamming their own product? I guess we will soon see how the American consumer responds to that message! It would be helpful if Bullard and Leo shut their mouths for awhile...but I doubt that will happen?
I suspect PETA is happy as a lark over this?

[farmers_son]

I did not see any adverse consumer reaction to the Washington Holstein which made its way into the food chain and was quite widely distributed. Beef prices remained at historically high levels and consumption certainly kept up with supply.

This animal should barely make it onto the radar screen, it really is a non issue as far as food safety goes. Risk materials are removed from all cows in North America, there is way more testing being done than before and even if you cannot trust the Americans tests there is absolutely no doubt that consumers can trust Canadian tests which clearly show the incidence of BSE in Canada and by inference North America, while it exists, is at extremely low levels and should be decreasing due to a feed ban that has been in place for approaching ten years.

While the Consumers Union did send a letter to the USDA is that what caused the retest? They certainly want to take credit. Might be just another pawn like R-Calf to deflect attention away from the political maneuverings of the USDA and the Bush Administration who I still think is in 100% control of the BSE situation including the closure of the border to our live cattle. They are the ones calling the shots, determining the timing of the announcements and the timing of the Court Cases, controlling the outcome of Senate votes, managing the BSE spin for the press. Machiavelli would be impressed with how the U.S. is working the BSE crisis to their advantage on all fronts.

However my impression remains that the U.S has gained all the advantage it can from the obviously uncalled for, unfair and protectioninst restrictions in beef and live cattle trade with Canada. U.S. interests are now best served by at least a partial resumption of trade to demontrate to U.S. consumers that North American beef is safe.

[grassfarmer]

Farmers_son I was just going by the information you posted on June 19th which appears to show that the consumer group was ultimately behind the retest.

You said "I have pasted a link to a letter that a group called the Consumers Union sent to the USDA questioning the results of the testing done in 2004 on this cow.
See: http://www.consumersunion.org/campaigns/USDA.pdf
In response, the USDA sent a three-page letter refusing to take further action.
The Office of the Inspector General (OIG) then requested the further tests which resulted in the announcement of a positive BSE cow in the United States."

As far as consumers believing the "sound science" of BSE, food safety and SRM removal I'm reminded of the quote:
"In this age of 2 second newsclips we live in an era in which perceptions are real and facts are negotiable"
In my experience this is very true of BSE and consumer perception.

[farmers_son]

There should be no mistake about the fact that the Consumers Union is not the farmers friend. The Consumers Union has joined forces with R-Calf to put of the message that beef is not safe. The CU is at best a fringe group. I heard them speak on the radio and they are more than happy to take credit for the retest of this cow. And it seems as if the Bush administration is more than happy to let the CU take credit as producers groups such as the NCBA voice their unhappiness that the retest was done. It could be that the U.S. system is just very responsive to fringe groups like R-Calf and the Consumers Union but it also could be the government uses these groups for its own purpose while pursing the governments own agenda.

Whatever the reason this cow got retested, the timing is sure interesting. Only weeks after the OIE announces new relaxed rules for BSE classifying boneless beef as non-risk and creating official new designations for low risk countries like the U.S. not to mention just weeks before the two July court cases. The coincidences are absolutely incredible. The CU raised its concerns months ago, action is just taken now.

The U.S. government moves in mysterious ways. Government seems confident that they can give these fringe groups, Consumers Union and R-Calf a higher profile yet still manage the spin in the press. There is a lot riding on the outcome, on both sides of the border.