Herd of Origin Still Not Found

[farmers_son]

It has been four days since the official announcement of a domestic case of BSE in the United States. It has been over two weeks since this animal tested positive with a conclusive BSE test. This animal has yet to be traced back to its herd of origin.

Failure of the USDA to identify the herd of origin and test the birth cohort of this animal threatens the status of the U.S. to be even called controlled risk, the classification that Canada would fit into. Without being able to trace back, identify and test the birth cohort of this positive cow the U.S. would not meet its own level of BSE risk management. It cannot just be assumed away that this cow was the only animal in the herd which developed BSE.

[wd40]

I agree FS, however don't forget the US uses 2 rule books. One for themselves and one for the rest of the world.

[JD4ME]

In keeping with tradition I'm expecting the USDA to announce they have traced the herd of origin on Friday July 1st sometime around 3 pm eastern time.
I think they have a good idea and are awaiting DNA work.

[rain]

Has their been any indication yet what part of the country this animal came from. Have they decied to retest the other negative animals?

[cowman]

Maybe I'm not listening to the news enough or something but this whole thing is being kept pretty quiet and low key? I heard stories how the samples were all mixed up and there was some question about just what animal they were actually testing?
I think they tested all three samples, again, at Ames and the only one that came up positive was sent to England?
Hopefully the USDA can identify the herd and put this garbage to rest, before R-CALF gets on their soapbox?

[rkaiser]

It is so hard not to think about some kind of orchestration.

How could the USDA be so dumb?

How could a group as large as Rcalf be so dumb?

There has to be dozens, if not thousands of thinkers hired by these groups, yet they pull blunders like a group of grade three boys.

Both the USDA and Rcalf are now guilty of thinking about short term monetary solutions while shooting themselves in their feet over and over again. How can there possibly be that much incompetence in one industry?

[rkaiser]

seens that countries like Japan would have a lot more confidence in Canadian beef due to our testing protocols being so much superior to the US. This may bite the US beef industry in the butt before its over.

[farmers_son]

Regarding sales to Japan: I have come to the opinion that Canadian live cattle producers cannot gain an advantage over the U.S. It is one market. Although it may be a source of pride for Canadian producers to see Japan buy beef from Canada instead of the U.S. the actual economic benefit to the producer would be zero. The live price of our cattle is determined by what they are worth trucked into the United States, not by what our beef sells for to Japan. The packers are not truly margin operators, a $50 increase in their revenue by selling to Japan does not translate to a $50 increase in the price paid for the Canadian live animal. Unless you are saying we should become owners of a packing plant or else find other ways to retain ownership of the live animal past slaughter then sales to Japan do not put money in our jeans.

We do not get paid for beef, we do not get paid for exports to Japan or elsewhere. There is a ceiling on the price of our live cattle determined by what it takes to keep them here and not go south to the U.S. packers. If you want to see increased prices for live cattle in Canada once the border opens, you need to raise the price of live cattle in the United States. Because trade will Japan will only increase the profits of the packers, not the producer. Not to say that I would not be happy to see Canada increase its share of trade with Japan, but do not expect it to raise the price of our cattle one red cent.

Producers need to think of live cattle prices as a throttle on production levels, not their fair share of the consumer’s food dollar. We get paid only enough to keep producing more and those players beyond the farm gate get the rest. Unless you actually participate in the beef market beyond the farm gate then do not expect to share in the profits to be realized from sales to Japan or anywhere else.

[kpb]

yes, farmers_son, your points are exactly correct. All this talk from our various producer groups about opening up new markets will never benefit the primary producer one bit--they simply benefit the packers who are the ones who realize increased revenues at the point of sale to the export market. I am not sure if the people who are in the producer groups realize this and don't want to admit it or just don't get it. Either way it comes down to producers giving money to groups that benefit the packers alone.

On a larger scale, what the beef producers face is the same as what is faced by most commdity producers. Unless you own the means of processing your raw material (cattle) you will always be servants to whatever prices the processers want to pay you. And this price may have no relationship whatever to the price of the processed article.

The only interest that the packers have in the producers is the same as any processers in regard to their raw materials suppliers--namely to pay just enough for the raw material to ensure a future supply but no more than that. We will always be paid just enough to keep some of us in business but never enough to be prosperous as long as we cannot own our own means of processing. And, in our particular business it's worse than say, coal producers, because we have many producers who do not care if they make money or not, who would continue to own cows if the price fell another .25. This is not true in most other raw materials producers in our economy and means that the packers can offer even less for the fats, knowing that some producers will continue to be around regardless of the price.


kpb

[greybeard]

Canada doesn’t sell beef, Cargill does. They will only promote our beef to THEIR customers in Japan if it is more advantageous to them than selling their Aussie beef. They had the border open to boxed-beef in 2 months. Have they been trying with Japan, or are they happy with the way things are now?
FS, your description of price as the throttle is right on. If they need product to come in faster they throttle up, But if they can’t see what’s around the next corner they throttle back until they can clearly see what’s ahead. A market disruption like an announcement on a BSE cow is like a corner in the road. They will keep throttling back until supply slows. In Canada these days it’s like someone put in too big of an engine. Sometimes they can throttle back a lot as supplies just keep coming faster.
Kpb, your comments on the guys who will produce for cheaper yet go back to the low barriers to entry that you have explained well in the past. But those low barriers to entry also apply to the processing side. That is why cattle producers have enjoyed a much better share of the consumer dollar than many other segments in agriculture... As many on this board will confirm, once you get them slaughtered, you can go directly to the consumer.