Ban Overturned

[grassfarmer]

I was at a function last evening where Minister Horner spoke, he is extremely optimitic about the potential outcome of the July 27th court process.
I have also heard on good authority that Cor Van Raay and Kee Jim have every available liner booked to get cattle moving south as soon as all the details are ironed out which may possibly be next week. Apparently anyone with a number of cattle ready to go south wants them across the border just in case things go sour on the 27th.

[15444]

grassfarmer, I am basing our set-aside on 700-800lb steers that would have fetched .70-.80 this fall or winter without a border opening. If we can sell them into the US for 1.00-1.10, I will be most happy!

We just got a letter from Ontario Ag today, telling us what our general options are with the set-aside animals this fall. They do mention a possible release of the animals from the program if the border opens, so here's hoping they do!

[grassfarmer]

I got $1.086 for 7-8 weights in February - where is the big price leap?
Cattle going into the US will have additional costs added for branding etc. If they stick with the speying heifers rule I don't think many females will be exported anyway.

I'm puzzled by an auctioneers comment on TV tonight that cows and cull bulls jumped 10 cents/ lb overnight. Why? they won't be going anywhere either live or dead presumably so why should they rise in price first? I could understand it if thousands of fats were heading south and freeing up kill spaces. Or are these cows being bought up and put in feedlots in the expectation that they will increase in value. Seems there are plenty speculators about still.

[silverback]

Who in this industry do you suppose still has the cash and ability to speculate like that? Not the average cow/calf guy in my opinion.

[silverback]

I think that the cost of transporting livestock will increase so that will have to be factored into the bottom line. I am pleased that the border is open but hope that folks don't get overly optimistic that things are going to change a lot in a short period of time. I too,heard Blair Vold's comments last night and wondered why cows and bulls were so much stronger but good for the folks that were selling them !

[cowman]

I'm wondering if now that the border is starting to crack open, if AMI will pursue their court action on OTM animals? This could explain a price increase in cows?
In reality all R-CALFs arguments went out the door when the Americans found the BSE cow? I think also everyone "in the know" in the USA knew they had positives...while still putting up a "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" front?
I do believe finally the USDA realized they were losing control of the situation and the time has come to get on with business? Hopefully R-CALF will now ride off into the west. They have thoroughly discreditted themselves to the rest of the world with their hypocracy? We really don't need a cattle group that does it's best to ruin the market and scare the consumer by questioning the saftey of beef? ...maybe they can go join PETA or Earth First?

[grassfarmer]

Silverback, I agree it's not cow/calf or even family feedlots that are speculating. My guess is it will be Nilsons on cows as they will be guaranteed a pretty nice monopoly until otm cattle are able to cross the border. On feeders I am guessing it will be some of the mega feedlots in Alberta plus a good number of American buyers plus of course a few of our hypocritical R-CALF members.