What is "normal" now

[cakadu]

In several of the more recent posts since the border was ordered to be open, there have been references to "normal". Exactly what is normal now? Certainly it has changed in the past couple of years. Seems to me that we have the opportunity to create a new normal, preferably one that goes in favor of the Canadian producer.

What are some of your thoughts?

[cowman]

I suspect "normal" is we now go back to making $50/calf...just like how Cam Ostercamp described the situation pre BSE?
The good news is a lot of guys realized, through neccessity, that they can run these darned cows a whole lot leaner and meaner than they ever thought possible?
I believe guys like grassfarmer, probably have the right idea? Let the cows do most of the work and get rid of all that expensive iron and other costly inputs! I like to play the devils advocate with him but that doesn't mean I haven't been taking notes!
I even like his ideas about marketing and producing a grass type product...although I think that is a little further down the road.

[kato]

I think we've become in a lot of ways like our parents generation that lived through the Depression. We're a lot tougher, leaner, and smarter than before. Our eyes have been opened, and even though we are more cynical than before, I think we're also a lot smarter. When times are good, we all tend to just slide along our merry ways. Get hit like we have these last two years, and it is going to affect us all in one way or another.

Hopefully we will remember all this, and learn from it. I know the last couple of years have nudged us personally into doing things smarter around our operation.

The new 'normal' should include a lot less dependency on an American market. The nonsense coming from the Montana governor is just another reminder that we haven't finished with trade issues yet.

[farmers_son]

"The new 'normal' should include a lot less dependency on an American market."

The problem was not the American market. The problem was our lack of packing capacity in this country and our dependency on shipping live cattle across international borders. The U.S. remains the largest beef importer in the world and the number one beef market.

The Montana Governor is pointing out to us that the politics say send beef to the Americans instead of live cattle. If they keep hitting us over the head long enough maybe we will get the message. It is not up to Canadians to keep those packing plants in the U.S. Northwest supplied with cattle.

[grassfarmer]

Much as I like developing my low cost system Cowman I realise it is only buying time not providing a long term solution. It can keep me ahead of the pack as long as the majority of producers are prepared to run higher cost systems with lots of shiny metal. As kbp has pointed out this is much the same as entering a niche market - once more people get into the new way of production the processors that buy our product will pay us even less for our goods. We cannot "efficiency" our way out of this problem because the price fixers (packers and retailers) in the beef industry base their bids on cost of production plus just enough per head margion to keep producers farming. To regain any kind of security in agriculture we need to get paid on a "fair trade" basis not a production cost plus or minus a small margin depending on whether the Government is prepred to subsidise the shortfall or not at any given time.
"The new normal" for our induustry to me is same s#$@, different day.

[kpb]

grassfarmer, your comments and observations are correct. I hate to be the voice of doom always around here but I like to deal with what is real rather than what I would like to happen. I think that the era of the full-time rancher will end in the next few years, much as it has for the full-time hog farmer.

Already I note that most people on this board are not, in fact, full-time cattle ranchers. And while I have nothing against people who support their ranch with off-farm jobs or income--in fact I admire them since it is not something I would want to do--it's hard to take advice from those who's sole source of income does not come from the ranch. Kind of like the difference between being a pig and an egg-laying chicken. The chicken is concerned about meat eating but the pig is, shall we say, committed. Grassfarmer, you and I and the other full-timers around here are the pigs.

I've seen Century farms stop farming in the last while because they were in the hog business. And I frankly fear the same for the cattle industry. I think we're heading for an industry of part-time producers who are not really committed to making a profit and a living from the ranch. I don't know yet if that's good or bad but I think that that is the way it's going to go.


kpb

[cowman]

kpb: I believe the cattle industry is headed the same way as the hog business. At one time building a hog barn was your ticket to prosperity? Now where have all those hog farmers gone?
The fact is the small time hog farmer has pretty well dissappeared?
The same thing is happening to cattle? Soon the only ones left will be part timers? Now that "partimer" might be someone like Doc Seaman who runs thousands of cattle or it might be the guy with a quarter section who has 40 cows and works at a high paying job? Or it could be wealthy people who made their money elsewhere and want to play farmer, fulltime?
Anyway its all good, as the beef business is still open to everybody, and they can spend their nickel however they want? Unfortunately you need some pretty deep pockets to play this game anymore?
For quite a long time the system has been moving people off the land and getting them into the cities. That trend won't change?
For the people still involved in agriculture the day will come when you are basically forced out with a very good compensation package? You won't be starving or living out of a cardboard box or anything like that! I find it very sad however. A way of life is coming to an end. The first indication of this was when the next generation left in droves? Now we are basically a generation of old people waiting for the end? Count the young guys actually trying to farm? They are either rich foreigners or riding on Daddys coat tail to get the money?
It isn't to hard to figure out? $50 profit/calf is a fools game? You'd need 800 cows to net $40,000? I'm sorry but $40,000 just doesn't cut it anymore?

[grassfarmer]

I think we are maybe too quick sometimes to use other peoples figures - case in point $50 a calf profit. Obviously each producer has their own set of circumstances and costs but I think for many the potential should be a lot better than $50.
The model I am working on has extended grazing as it's lynch pin. On this land here where we don't normally drought my goal is to graze to Christmas and be back onto banked grass by the first week of April. So we feed conserved feed for around 100 days. We will buy in all feed in future. The cash costs per cow would be say $100 feed, $25 salt/minerals, $15 medication and vaccines, $30 fertiliser, giving a total of $170.
Add to that the costs of running an 11 year old tractor, silage wagon and bale processor for winter feeding plus minimal electric power, minimal corral cleaning and repairs (we only really use them for backgrounding calves)
At this point you can add as many other overheads as you want but in my situation they are very small.
I am hoping that we can achieve a weaning day value on our calves of $650 (after deducting selling costs) based on 550lb x $1.25
I'm thinking in my situation that a production cost of under $300 per calf is achievable on an average year - leaving rather more than the $50 quoted above.
Fire away folks - shoot my plan to shreds!

[cowman]

Nope! Grassfarmer you have a good plan. Maybe the only kind that will work, in my opinion!
The fact is these darned cows have to start paying their way in a more efficient manner...and that means taking care of themselves?
I know how my greatgrandfather ran them, out in the potholes and cleaning up the chaff/straw stacks. Calve with nature and a whole lot of tough love!
I would actually say you pretty well have it right.
The boys little experiment with controlled grazing seems to be pencilling out fairly well, although I still am not too keen on those darned electric fences! The pasture water system sure seems to work fairly well.

[grassfarmer]

I've had some fun with my pasture pipeline this year Cowman - it is mainly surface pipe with a section near home shallow buried. I drain it in the fall by disconnecting the supply and taking all the caps off along the line to allow water to run out - I've never bothered blowing it out with an airline I just wait for it to thaw in Spring. Last fall I made the mistake of leaving some of the caps off over winter and it seems a mouse thought it was a good shelter. I've been getting lumps of mouse hair blocking the filters on the hudson valves on the troughs periodically. You usually find out when about 200 head are standing round bawling for water!
My electric fences are usually problem free but this week I've had trouble with three warring charolais bulls who have twice wrecked a back fence - breaking the plastic posts and the polywire. They seem to like to push the outcast of the day back into the last field. Like any system there are trials and tribulations.