Numbers of Canadian Live Cattle Entering U.S.

[farmers_son]

There are a couple of sites that provide interesting data regarding live cattle movement into the United States.

The first and most up to date is:

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_ls636.txt

As of yesterday 18,419 feeder and slaughter calves have entered the United States since the border opened. 12,320 have entered in the last five days.

The second site provides data by state of entry.

See:
http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/WA_LS635.TXT

Most of the calves were going through Idaho and North Dakota as of July 23.

[cowman]

You will notice how the numbers are picking up? It takes awhile until things get rolling again. Should be wide open before the calf run starts?

[farmers_son]

We are killing between 10-12,000 grade A animals a day in Canada. The past week we have averaged about 2300 head of slaughter steers going across the border each week day into the U.S. Or about 20% of our total marketings are now being shipped live to the U.S. At 2300 per day that is not enough animals to have any effect on U.S. live cattle prices, only about 2.5% of their total daily slaughter of steers and heifers.

At least some of the live animals going south are already owned by Americans who were feeding cheap calves bought in Canada with the expectation that the border would open.

Most importantly however is the basis or difference between what the U.S producer got last week for his fat steer and what his Canadian counterpart received. The Canadian producer this week received on average $167 Canadian less for his steer than an American would get for the same steer. Presumably the 2300 steers that cross each day into the U.S. get the U.S. live price. But the 11,000 head killed in Canada get $167 per head less. Whatever is keeping the Canadian live cattle price from arbitraging with the U.S. price is costing our industry $1.8 million each day.

That is a lot of money and you would think with that much at stake we would see if not necessarily more live cattle entering the U.S. then Canadian live prices moving up more in line with U.S. prices. Some progress was made, the basis was $200 per head last week but there is a long way to go yet.