grassfarmer?

[cowman]

When you say barley is cheap, what kind of numbers are we talking? A farmer told me the other day a local feedlot is paying $1.46/bu.! Now I don't know if it is that cheap, but if it is I can assure you there won't be much barley grown next year!
Somehow there has to be a balance in these darned prices. Beef and barley always seem to be in a feast or famine situation? When one is up the other is down...and seems to be getting more extreme over the last few years?
I wonder how anyone is going to plant a crop next year with these high fuel prices and increased fertilizer prices? To top it off the bank of Canada seems to think interest rates have to rise!
I would think with the current price structure for grain and the poor growing conditions in parts of the country that the grain farmer could be approaching a meltdown?

[cowman]

not to mention the problems faced by farmers in getting crops, second cut etc. off in decent shape this fall.

[blackjack]

...kpb... I will buying some... even though we got hailed 80% the silage crop still ran 8 ton /acre plus we had a bumper hay crop... I've yet to figure the extra cost to silage but the fuel bill was definitely grose...

...last fall bought a mix of calves and young bred cows...I thought for the quality of the cows they were a good buy... as it turned out for us backgrounders was it not basically a 1 in 10 years to have the margins we had this past year...

...cowman...like our industry has been in the past two years...it is hard to fathom how long the farmers can produce below production costs whether it is grain or forage production...as you have said those with the deepest pockets survive but it does not lead to a better industry without the younger people unable to make a living...I could be wrong but I think the rest of society does not seem to understand without a strong agriculture base we are headed for disaster...

[blackjack]

blackjack this lack of understanding is evident with some municipalities as well, some municipalities seem hell bent on zoning that will deter any expansion of the livestock sector. I am not referring to municipalities in the highway 2 corridor where the land is being snapped up by developers, but to municipalities that are an hours drive away from that area. Folks with an urban background or mindset just do not understand what the future holds without a strong agricultural industry in this country.

[kpb]

blackjack and emerald, I agree with everything both of you posted. Blackjack, I agree last year was a real good one for us backgrounders and this year can't be as good but I'm not greedy and I'll be happy with just a little profit.

kpb

[cowman]

Blackjack: And there lies the real problem? Thirty years of poor prices in relation to costs and poor government policies have pretty well stripped all the young people out of agriculture?
In our drive to become "efficient" we have driven our farmers to the point of extinction.
When I was young it had already started but in the last several years it has really heated up? Successful multi generation farmers are not urging their children to continue to farm...and who can blame them? The writing is on the wall and for a young person there are so many other opportunities to have a good life? As a business, farming really is a poor choice...just doesn't pencil out?
I don't have a solution. I doubt there is a solution?

[farmers_son]

Maybe some successful multi generation farmers are not urging their children to continue to farm…but I am. Yes there are other opportunities for a good life, always were. However I have always had a roof over my head, a vehicle to drive and a retirement plan in place for my future. That is about all the other opportunities offer. And although there are lots of job opportunities when you are 25-35, when you are 50 or better the farm offers job security which is quite attractive. I have never regretted my decision to farm.

Could farming be better? For sure. Yes there are solutions, lots of them. One solution is producers can improve their competitive position by vertically integrating upwards into packing plants and further processing. It is not some kind of pipe dream to do this, it is sound business. It can be done and it will be done and it is already being done on a very small scale. Primary producers today have the ability to expand their horizons beyond just being suppliers of live cattle to someone else who makes all the money.

In the seventies and eighties the drive was to become efficient. Today the drive is to become profitable.

[farmers_son]

From what I see among the producers that I know, the kids that are really interested in farming are getting an education that will allow them to farm plus work at least part time, because they are not willing to just ' get by' like they have seen their parents do. The only way younger folks can farm is with help from their parents or winning a lottery, and the help from the parents depends on what sort of situation their parents are in. Many of the younger parents are still paying off considerable debt and really can't afford to hand the farm to the kids. Then there are kids like mine that aren't the least bit interested in farming so this farm will not be handed down.

[PureCountry]

What the Hell is with this continuing crap about young farmers have no hope? I'm bloody sick of it cowman!! There is plenty of hope and a future in farming or ranching if you do it right. You don't need a 2-MILLION dollar set of equipment to live a good life in agriculture. You don't need 5,000 acres to have a good life in agriculture. You don't need a $50,000 truck, $250,000 house, and all the creature comforts, to have A GOOD LIFE IN AGRICULTURE.

You SHOULD be encouraging young farmers. We all should be. I'm tired of listening to your constant BS about how young farmers are crazy to get into it. Yeah their crazy to do it the way I just described above, but there are many ways to live a 'good life' in farming and ranching without taking the risk of all those inputs.

If all you can say about young people in farming is doom and gloom, shut the Hell up and stick to talking about other things.

[Cattleman]

I sort of have to agree with you purecountry.....all farmers do is complain about how bad everything is, (because farming like their grandfather doesn't work anymore) and then they wonder why no young people want to get into agriculture. All businesses change, and many people in agriculture are very resistant to change which is causing all the problems. I myself see so many opportunities of producing many great products off the land, whether it be sod, direct marketed beef, horse market oats, and small square bales, pet industry products, the list can go on forever. Things are going quite fine at our place, and I am young. Don't look at the negative all thr time and look at the positive! I am not directing these comments towards just cowman, but many of the people involved in agriculture today.

[smcgrath76]

I tend to agree with all of the posts (including cowman) above.
I am a young producer, who generates most of my income off farm as a means to cash flow expansion. I think the math is fiarly straightforward. If you want a $50,000 a year income from 50 cows, then you need to figure out how to clear $1000 a cow, otherwise you need more cows. As a youngster I am concerned about return on equity/assets, especially since I don't have a whole bunch at this stage in the game, but I also need cash to do things like buy groceries.
My PERSONAL opinion about the lifestyle argument is that everyone has a lifestyle. A bum on the street pushing a shopping cart has a lifestyle, a young farmer using their visa card to buy groceries and not knowing how they will pay it off has a lifestyle, Donald Trump has a lifestyle. A lifestyle of high debt, low cash flow is a pretty crappy one in my opinion and not one that I particularly want to undertake. With that in mind I(we) structure our business and our decisions such that we can take that into account.
Do I need to own land, or do I want to own land? Do I need to own cows to be a cowboy or a rancher? Am I the only person who can take care of my cows, put up feed, etc.? Where do I get the best return on my time vs. where do I like to spend my time?

These are the kind of things that I continually ask myself (Agri-ville helps). Somethings get done just because I like to do them, others because I know that they pay better for the time I invest than anything else I can do.

There are opportunities in agriculture, but the mindset of established and young producers cannot remain the same.
I agree with cowman in the strict commodity sense of the game that it is nearly impossible to do starting with debt (no equity). We are lucky in that we are building off of an established operation and can be a bit creative and search out some new opportunities to hopefully go around some of the issues that exist in the live cattle business.

[smcgrath76]

lifestyle and necessities sometimes are not one and the same. Wanting the $50,000 pickup might correlate with a chosen lifestyle, but heating the modest home, putting food on the table and clothes on the kids are necessities. A young neighbour wanted to farm full time with his father, he bought into the farm which they expanded by another section of land, they also expanded their cowherd, the kid got married had a couple of little ones and then BSE hit.
He and his wife are still living in the old mobile home that they bought as a STARTER home, they aren't heading out on the weekends to quad, ski or snowmobile with their friends, they drive the same old pickup that the kid bought new before wife and kids.
They seem to be weathering the storm but there must be times when they are damn envious of the lifestyles of their friends. And things don't really look like they are going to get a lot easier for them and lots like them. Puts a lot of pressure on a young couple, and likely makes him second guess his choice to farm with dad.