Hay?

[cowman]

My hay dealer tells me the local demand for cow hay is slim to zero! He says trucking it is getting too pricey to move it very far. With the cruddy weather this summer a lot of export timothy is looking for a home.
Now the horse hay market is of course holding up very well, but the cow hay is definitely a buyers market. The boy bought some so-so hay for $24 a bale delivered! He has twenty acres of oats barley in swath that he intends to swath graze as well as 90 acres native grass that wasn't grazed since June 1st. The cows at home are out on the stubble with fairly good pickings and the cows out east still have a lot of grass, but need to come home fairly soon.
I told him he needs to buy some decent hay if he intends to feed out some calves. We got a decent crop of barley, good yield and weight but a little tough! Lots of quality straw.
I wonder where all this hay is going to go? Seems like there is a lot around this year?

[ALLFARMER]

Cowman here are some rations put out from AB Ag a few years back (Trevor Yurchak, Christoph Weder, Don Christensen, Rod Carlyon, Terry Holmgren)

Feed costs based on North Central Alberta Oct 22/01

Straw $40/ton, Wheat $4.00/bu, 30% Supp. $220/ton, Barley silage $40/ton, Peas $5.00/bu, Mixed hay $120/ton, Barley $3.50/bu, 14% pellets $155/ton, Canola meal $240/ton

Ration 1
20lbs straw
Feed Wheat 11lbs
Beef suppliment 1lb
cost/day $1.23

Ration 2
Mixed hay 28lbs
straw 8 lbs
Cost/day $1.84

Ration 3
straw 20lbs
14% pellets 15lbs
cost/day $1.45

Ration 4
Straw 20lbs
peas 12 lbs
cost/day $1.40

Ration 5
Barley silage 24 lbs
straw 20lbs
peas 6 lbs
cost/day $1.38

Ration 6
Mixed hay 10lbs
straw 20 lbs
wheat 6 lbs
cost/day $1.51

Ration 7
Mixed hay 10lbs
straw 20 lbs
barley 7 lbs
cost/day $1.51

All rations are based on a 1400lb cow, 9 months pregnant, at -15 Celsius

[cowman]

I think they have tables similar to those in the "Cow-Calf Management book"? I guess with the prices of feed these days it sure doesn't cost much to feed a cow anymore? 1150 lb. round bales at $24 works out to about 2 cents a pound. Taking the hay straw ration(valuing straw at 1 cent/lb.) works out to 64 cents a day? Now if we feed for 200 days(don't laugh a lot of people do) that comes to $128 for winter feed? Probably as cheap or cheaper than having her out on pasture?
Maybe that $1.30/lb. calf doesn't look so bad after all considering how cheap it is to keep the cow?

[Horse]

Thats true cowman but being the skeptic that I am 1 yr cheap feed dosent make for a profitable industry we are actualy quite dry with no reserves and this yr was an exceptinl yr for crops and tough grain looking for a home but double those costs for next yr and we are back in trouble.

[Horse]

good comments horse. Most folks I know are playing catch up on their bills with the funds from this years calf crop and the folks that counted on selling a lot of hay are in trouble.

[cowman]

Horse:Without a doubt that is true! After 2002(drought year) I doubt I'll ever take much for granted! I don't know about your area but here the ground is still pretty wet...a long ways down!
I wonder if the reason we are seeing so many small cow/calf outfits dispersing is the fact people have become gun shy and uncertain about this whole industry? At one time you could pretty well expect things to go a certain way and although there were ups and downs you could usually plan for them and the good years averaged out the poor?
Couple that with an aging farm population and I can certainly see why people are calling it quits.

[cowman]

In this area everyone that is calling it quits seems to be holding onto their land base or selling some of it off to larger operations and retaining their home quarter . The average age of the ones that are dispersing their cattle is mid sixties.

[EBusch]

I guess to be on the optimistic side, I worked with a young lady at a grain elevator this winter, and she was just starting up her own cow/calf business, and she argued that although things were grim at the moment, it was a good time for a young person like herself to start and build up a herd.