Herd selloffs?

[cowman]

In the last issue of the western producer there was an article on herd selloffs? It was mostly about Manitoba but I think we see it just about everywhere?
They talked about how many ranchers were selling all the calves, big and small? Now maybe that is just because the prices are decent or does it mean something else? The article suggests many older ranchers are bailing, but also several younger ones? Selling lock, stock and barrel!
I suspect a lot of people really took a beating the last couple of years and the banker is knocking at the door? I also suspect the last two years have dulled peoples appetite for the cow business...maybe three years if you were in the drought of 2002?
These cows are going to go someplace and someone is buying them. Not sure just how the prices on bred cattle are going? Hoping to hit the bred sale today in Innisfail today, so might have a better idea.
I still find it strange that people are unloading the cows when the cow market is so poor? They hung in there with the dogs the last two years but now they are going to bail out? I would think that the cow market might get a lot better once the border problems are over? When will that be?
Bush is going to Japan this month and I guess he is going to play hardball on the beef thing? USDA is making some noise about moving forward with normalizing trade on cull cows. I would think this is not the time to pack it in?

[Horse]

If you are crowding retirement age and prices are better than expected why not , trere are a lot of people out there that think this thing will never be truly over . We are still the grunts for big business and now the energy thing when does it end ? when you die.
Lots of the young people have found employment and sure dont figure on going back into surfdom now they found out other people eat 3 meals a day and have holidays and money to spend and spare time to do something besides work.
I think in say 10 yrs farming is sure going to look diferent , mabey back to horse powetr, or subsistance farming ,and a whole lot of corporate farms , but there is a lot of land not suited to large farming practices so room for a few little guys .
wouldnt it be funny if it all went back to the days before oil as the days after oil are coming just dont know when acording to some it may be sooner than you think.
Read an interesting article called Peak oil quite alarming

[Horse]

I attended a conference today where one speaker advised that there are less cow/calf operations but the average size of the remaining operations is somewhat larger eg: more cows.

[Horse]

Unless there is welfare cows or grandpas land how do you justify cows at all with the price of land and expences I think you can find consenus on the 500$ per cow and that is without land payments and a cash flow to live on .
How many cows do you feel would suply a living to a young family?

[Horse]

It would depend on their debt load and what kind of lifestyle they wanted to have.

[Bez]

Unless there is welfare cows or grandpas land how do you justify cows at all with the price of land and expences I think you can find consenus on the 500$ per cow and that is without land payments and a cash flow to live on .
How many cows do you feel would suply a living to a young family?

______________________________________

Horse - tough call.

Land prices, infrastructure and machinery - are not cheap. Live poor and die rich. Rented land is the best if you can find it set with water and fences. Be a cattleman or be a land owner - being both can kill you if you do not have family backing or lottery winnings.

Those starting out need to have deep pockets - good planning and better luck.

Cattle will not likely pay for the land if your debt load is high. So best to have an off farm oncome - even for those who plan to live real cheap.

Bez

[Horse]

Why spend your wages on producing food at aloss why not just live in the country and enjoy yourself.
If you like cows or crop call it what it is a hobby not a livelyhood.

[cowman]

If you have a hobby it usually costs you something? That may not be true all the time, sometimes you can make some money at a hobby...and then you have the best of both worlds?
My SO has a hobby of painting. She does very well selling her pictures. Now obviously she would be hard pressed to make a living at it, but then she doesn't need too, so can enjoy it and paint when she wants to!
If you look at farming the same way...it can be very enjoyable?
I know a fair number of people who own a bit of land and run a few cows for the enjoyment of it. It is their hobby...not their bread and butter! They are actually making some money off their cattle but they definitely don't need to turn a profit large enough to cover their living expenses.
I believe this is about the only alternative to "get big or get out"? It can be a very enjoyable life?
Thirty years ago I made 100% of my income on the farm. I wanted more than the farm could generate. I never regretted my decision.

[greybeard]

How did that bred sale go, Cowman?