What Premium!!!

[cswilson]

I never said I'd accept anything less I made that post just to get some people thinking is all-if it works we might just flush our top three cows and put embryos in our replacement heifers-those cows don't miss very often-in ten years should have a pretty good set of baldie cows.

[rkaiser]

What I was trying to point out Wilson, is the fact that there are a lot of good cattle out there at the other end of the lake from those bad ones that you talk about.

I will not argue that pulling some embryos out of a mating that you think is superior does not demand some attention. But the point is, what you think and what others think is often different. Talking about grid priced steers has been tried by many. Posting growth results and feed efficiency results has been tried by more. Have these results guaranteed anyone a Premium? Not very often. If I told you that the last set of oversupply Celtic heifers sold off the Grid to Cargill with 86% of 44 head pulling off a triple A, would you line up at my next bred heifer sale, or bull sale? It happened Wilson, but I have to sell the fact that it happened.

By the way wilson, I wish I was littler. The holiday season, and my lack of chores this winter have pushed me toward joining a gym to bring this 6 foot frame back down into the 200 pound range again!!! LOL

[farmers_son]

“in ten years should have a pretty good set of baldie cows”.

I thought about that all afternoon. Ten years is really a long time. Native pasture land that is worth $50,000 a quarter now will be selling for nearly $100,000 a quarter in ten years at 5% annual growth. In ten years the Hong Kong round of WTO agreement will have come into full force eliminating agricultural subsidies in Canada. Meanwhile the U.S. farm bill will be extended to cattle. The United States will be only eight years away from having unrestricted access for Australian beef products and Australian beef imports will have been increasing yearly. In ten years the Canadian dollar could be at par with the U.S. What interest rates will be are anyone’s guess. It is likely that Canada will have entered into trade agreements with many South American countries and Canadian farmers will be vaccinating for foot and mouth disease along with IBR. In ten years Canada will still be getting BSE positives. A gallon of diesel fuel will cost $6.50 if the price trends of the last 10 years repeat themselves. A new diesel pickup truck will be over $100,000. In ten years I will not be very much closer to collecting the Old Age Security because the 65 age limit would have been increased. The last farmer with any CAIS margin left will have lost his reference margin. Individual farm debt will have increased by 50% while gross income will remain about the same as it is now. I do not think it is a stretch of the imagination to suggest that the moister agricultural areas of Saskatchewan, Alberta and Mantiba will be growing trees for heating, fibre and Green House Gas credits and the cows will be fenced out of those areas because of tree damage. On the bright side personal income taxes and GST will have been reduced.

In ten years I see that there will be a place for a good set of baldie cows but that place will be Uruguay.

[Horse]

f-s I sure like that last post I think it would be worth putting in a time capsule.

[cswilson]

Kaiser when you learn some manners you might see some action at your bull sale-not a minute sooner-trust me I've researched your deal already.

[cswilson]

So how you dealing with it farmers_son lol.

[farmers_son]

Well I wish I knew how to deal with it. Hope the future is not quite that bleak but we are certainly facing some challenges. Getting more efficient may not be enough to keep the wolf from the door. A good herd of baldie cows will help too but only so much. For the most part we are going to need industry solutions. The real curse of BSE may be that we want to think that if the border would just open to our live cattle and beef exports than all will be well. We have been so focused on BSE that we have forgot to look farther down the road.

You said you made that post to get people thinking and that is where it led my thinking. I do think optimism is important but in the context that we got our work cut out for us if we wish to remain in the cattle business.

[cowman]

I think for a lot of people the day is coming when they will need to look at the economics of raising cattle? Or for that matter the economics of agriculture in this country? I actually really like Farmers sons idea of raising trees and collecting the government carbon credits? Let all you eager beavers chase those darned old cows through the toolies while I wander through the trees!
During the last three years a lot of producers have left the industry? Usually small herds packing it in because they were working for nothing, as well as some spectacular big outfits that went broke!
The cow business is changing...with the big getting bigger with borrowed money and the little quitting...usually with some dollars in their pocket. Now who are the smart ones? Time will tell.
I really hate to project ahead ten years what things might be like? I don't see agriculture doing all that well unless something changes? I hope we don't all become wards of the state?

[rkaiser]

Sorry if you don't like my manners cswilson, I have always gotten along well by speaking or writing the words that are in my thick head!

[smcgrath76]

I think for most guys the premium is next to nil, unless they can reduce cow depreciation. For guys selling later into the production chain, I suspect they are worth what upper end heifers are trading for (I have seen some bred sales average $1300 and up). I think the real challenge is to get a big enough group together. I am not sure that a quality group of 3/4 sisters or better, timed bred AI aren't worth as much or more.
Figure:
$1000 average heifer
$1500 Good Heifer

1000 / 5 years = $200 cow depreciation/year
1500 has to last at least 2.5 years more to produce the same depreciation
Assume average has no premium, then $150 grid premium takes 3 1/3 calves to cover the premium paid for the heifer.

There is an upside potential to the investment though, assuming they add value (outperform expectation in CS' own words). I have continually had it drilled into my head that it is better to own a few good cows than a whole bunch of average ones.

[cswilson]

Most guys who called me Wilson to my face don't do it twice-just something to consider Kaiser. For a man in the promotional business you certainly approach it from a differenyt angle I must admit.

[rkaiser]

The way that I figure it Mr. Wilson, there is enough Bull Shit in the purebred industry already. If you have a question fire away. I will not "try" to answer it for you, I will answer it for you. If you don't like my answer, I guess you won't be a customer. I learned a long time ago that everyone will not be a customer.

[cowman]

I think we all have cows in our herds that can "ring the bell"? If all our cows produced like the top ten percent I suspect we would be happy?
I guess the trick is trying to move those 90% lesser cows up into a higher bracket? Set the bar higher sort of thing?
Now I am a firm believer in crossbreeding and also a firm believer in using AI to improve the genetics I have available. I think you can do more in ten years with a good AI program than you can in a lifetime, otherwise!
Yep, it is a pain, but the results can be pretty impressive? We started AIing heavily in the late seventies. One year, around 1990, in our replacement pen 23 out of 25 heifers were AI sired and the other two were out of AI cows.
With AI you can get proven genetics at a cheap price instead of buying a pretty costly package that may or may not be any good at all! I have always preferred the ABS sires as they have good data...unlike a lot of the Canadian bulls.

[cswilson]

A truly unique approach Mr. Kaiser I wish you all the best with it.

[cswilson]

A truly unique approach Mr. Kaiser I wish you all the best with it. I can understand how you'd recognize B'S-like i said what a rude little fellow you are-I could care less if you agree or disagree with me.