$6 corn?

[cowman]

I read somewhere that if they get these ethanol plants up and running corn could rise to $6/bu.! Now I would assume barley would follow suit...especially if Canada gets off its butt and starts building some plants?
I got thinking...what will that do to the beef, pork, and poultry businesses? I would suspect prices would rise...because costs sure would!
Now is this a good thing or not? Say if barley was $4.50/bu? I know I'd sure be out breaking up some land...unless calf prices rose dramatically!
I use barley as an example because that is what really grows well here, but wheat could also be an option.
If canola also went up for bio deisel purposes, I suspect there would be a lot of cows taking a ride to MacDonalds!
I think it is kind of exciting that we might be able to produce a product that people actually want and will pay for, instead of something nobody wants.

[WoolyBear]

I've never heard of any ethanol plant using barley. If it did follow corn and go to $4.50/bushel because of the worlds need for "oil", rather than being used to provide food for livestock and people, then this agriculture is being driven by the greed of the oil industry too.

What a sick world this has become.

[cowman]

Wooleybear: What do they use at the Poundmaker feedlot? I just assumed it was barley, but maybe it was wheat?
I used barley as an example because that and canola are the preferred crops in my area...due to a short growing season. Actually a fair amount of CPS wheat is grown here too, so wouldn't be much of a problem shifting to that if that is where the market is?
I would think if a good portion of the feed corn was going into ethanol production in the US, then other feed grains would rise, whether for ethanol production or as replacement feed?
This whole developement might change the face of agriculture, as we know it? It might actually put some much needed profit back into farming?
And in reality the day of the family hog/chicken farm is basically over...and cattle rapidly moving that way? This ethanol/bio deisel stuff gives farmers an option from the meat industry which is rationalizing and becoming non profitable for the small farmer?

[dalek]

Remember there's a huge amount of distillers grain coming out the back end of these ethanol plants to feed to livestock. Most assessments I've seen are that even if all the feed corn was going into the ethanol plants instead, there are enough plants coming online that there will be a glut of distillers to feed to cattle (more so than hogs) and it will be cheaper than ever to feed cattle in corn country in the midwest.

[dalek]

Ended too soon. In fact some of the studies in Nebraska and Iowa are suggesting they'll have to expand their feedlots, and build feedlots for lambs as well, if they're going to be able to use up all the distillers they're going to produce. Then they'll have a cost advantage vs. feedlots farther out of corn country. And before you go thinking that there's a limited amount of corn they can produce, they aren't even close to it yet. Lots of Americans itching to take land out of CRP to put into corn.

[grassfarmer]

This was mentioned briefly at the AB NFU Convention today and concensus was that if barley were used it would be at or below current feed barley price.

More interesting was the view of an energy trader revealing some of the myths behind the current energy boom. Oil and gas consumption worldwide is rising but it has risen at almost 2% per year for the last 40 years almost without wavering. In the last two years it has been rising at a little under 2%. Current sky high energy values are due to unrestricted speculating in futures by energy traders rather than war in Iraq, hurricanes or any other oft quoted excuse.

[BruceC]

Last summer when gas price was high some plants in the mid west were giving away wet spent grain - cost more to dry then it was sold for- this was about 35-40% dry matter Some plants are now trying to burn it for electricity . Also some are pelleting it to burn in pellet stoves
Bruce C

[cowman]

I guess that makes sense with the left over distillers grain? Can this stuff be fed to hogs economically?
Is corn king of ethanol production? Can wheat, especially CPS wheat, compete with it on an energy basis?
When the feds legislate a blend, where will the ethanol come from, the USA or Canadian plants?

[dalek]

I don't know much about feeding it to hogs, I get the feeling it's a lot harder than feeding it to cattle or sheep. As for wheat, it doesn't seem to be used much for ethanol, but sugar cane is king. A lot of the ethanol in the US now is coming from Brazil and other places using sugar cane. I think that will be the biggest competition for Canada too.

[smcgrath76]

I have not done a lot of research of feeding distillers grain, but my understanding from nutritionist friends is that it can create some big issues with carcass quality.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Corn DG's have more energy than wheat DG's. Barley DG's are the poorest. My understanding is the combination of the DG's and the syrup left over or what is called "thin stillage", is more effective. With excess feed grains around, it is difficult to put too high of a value on these wheat DG's. Right now the ethanol producers are pretty proud of them.

[dannytoro]

......Actually corn is not the greatest for ethanol production. It simply dominates the American market because of the powerful American corn lobby, which effectively kills all other crops. Brazil bases it highly successful model on Sugar Cane. Great potential crops for Canada are Sugar Beets, Potatoes and Jeruslem Artichoke. They all far outstrip corn for output. And potatoe and sugar beets offer feed mash to make them profitable.