Really Interesting Commentary

[spudchucker]

Hello Willowcreek:
I personally agree with you on the 100% testing at least for a couple years to root out any remaining. I also think companies should be allowed to test 100% of animals for export markets as well. I don't know why Canada hasn't jumped on this.
Regarding the dog food case, wasn't it manufactured in a US plant of a Canadian company? I could be wrong. I will do some checking.

[Willowcreek]

Estimation of BSE Prevalence in Canada


Table 5 summarizes the results of the estimation of BSE prevalence in the standing Canadian adult cattle population as of August 15, 2006. Based on the expected prevalence value under the BBC model and the estimated adult herd size (Table 1), the expected number of BSE-infected animals in the standing Canadian adult cattle population is 4.1. By comparison, the expected value obtained under BSurvE Prevalence B is 3.9 per million, which corresponds to an estimated 23.2 BSE-infected animals in the standing Canadian adult cattle population.

http://www.aphis.usda.gov/newsroom/hot_issues/bse/downloads/BSE_Prevalence.pdf
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If you go by the APHIS studies-- they estimate the US at 3 or at the most 4 BSE cattle in the entire US herd- and they estimate 23.2 BSE cattle in the Canadian herd, which is 1/7th the size....That makes the risk factor of Canadian cattle many many times higher....40 to 50 times at the minimum....

But then if you factor in the young age of the cattle you're finding in Canada (as young as 4), and the continuity of positives showing up (every 2-3 months), and that half are POST feedban born which is evidence the feedban has not/ is not working and the disease is still spreading in Canada-- the Risk factor increases extensively....

And you are right it was a Canadian company on the dogfood, that has several US plants, and it appears to be tracing back to a rat poison (that is banned in the US) in wheat gluten they bought from China...

One of my young border collie customers called today- had just lost his old dog and his pup- probably to this dog food (doing tests)...Even tho his Dad is a past President of NCBA, he had nothing good to say about importing food this morning...

[DiamondSCattleCo]

But then you factor in that the US is testing animals in which their test can not even show BSE and that they don't even publish how many culls and 4Ds they've actually tested, the US's risk factor then comes back up to pretty much even with Canada.

You can pick the Aphis junk over a 3rd party independent all you want OT. The rest of the world knows the truth, and thats that the US's infection rate is the same as, or even higher than, Canadas.

Rod

[farmers_son]

I do not think it matters if the number crunchers conclude there are 23 BSE cows in Canada versus 4 or 184 in the United States. Both countries will be classed in the same risk category; controlled risk.

Re importing food. The reality is that food is imported into the United States as well as Canada. I recall last December a food scare involving U.S. spinach and e.coli.

Regarding the pet food:
http://www.fda.gov/bbs/topics/NEWS/2007/NEW01590.html

The take home message for me is that food production is global not local. In this instance we have a Canadian firm operating plants in the U.S. under U.S. rules. I can assure you there are many more U.S. owned companies operating plants in Canada. Faced with a global economy like this it is not in cattle producer's interest to isolate themselves within their own borders. Ways must be found for cattle producers throughout the major cattle producing regions of the world to work together to achieve fair pricing of live cattle for one and all.

We will not have success in raising the price of our domestic live cattle by seeking policies designed to lower the price of live cattle elsewhere.