help in marketing!!

[nicolaas]

I got about 200 head of weaned calves, probably 600 lb range. With the state of the economy, should a guy sell now before the economy really craters? The heifer retention in the industry is quite low, the cow herd is going down. Will this mean a decent price for bred heifers this fall, or will other economic forces take over? Or should a guy sell the steers, and grass the heifers (I have never made money grassing runts, and I do have about 3 of them so they will be sold soon. Any input would be appreciated. Thankyou.

[smcgrath76]

yes, no and maybe. That is a difficult question. Grass cattle are very strong right now with predictions solid for the next two to three weeks. Beyond that who knows. Even the market pundits don't seem to know.
The dollar is weak, grain is down, oil is down supporting prices. Demand is down, MCOOL is weakening prices. In a nutshell, who knows. We still have all our calves, but we will grass the smaller cattle for sure since that is where we make our money. The bigger calves we have been working on strategy since November and before. Do you have feed and grass kicking around?

[nicolaas]

Thanks for the reply. I did pick up another 1/2 section last spring, and used it to graze my cull cows/calves on it thru october prior to downsizing my herd. THere was lots of stockpiled grass on it, but the grass supply will be alot less this year. I probably could graze the calves for a couple months on it this year, but moisture conditions are looking quite bleak already. I originally was going to drain it and spray it out for more grainland, but I do not think that spending money on that venture is a good idea anymore. Leaving in grass may be the way to go. THat is why I overgrazed it last year. I do have the feed for the animals till mid May. So do you figure that selling the Heavys now is the way to go? I looked at the futures on corn and soybeans, and they are dropping, lots of pessimissim out there. Too many people get layoffs, noone will be buying anything!

[grassfarmer]

It would appear to be pure guesswork that you need to base your decision on, same as the rest of us. I spoke to my neighbor who works the auction ring in the first week of sales in January and he commented that the best 5 weight steers only made $1 that week - look at them now. Not that we are at historic highs or even necessarily profitable levels but going up 25 cents/lb in 6 weeks is a fair climb. Given what we are facing at the moment I think calves are relatively strong now, certainly way better than last October-December.
I think if I had your heavier calves, given the worries you have with grass I would ship them now.
We are in a different position - we can get plenty grazing to rent locally at @ 70c/day/pair so that is very economical to graze yearlings on(@25c/lb of gain for grass and minerals only) We are moving towards shipping all our commodity calves as yearlings in August - it suits our grass management conditions.

I certainly wouldn't keep your heifer calves to breed and sell. We are very much still in downsizing mode and I can't see any prospect of bred heifers bringing a better return this fall than shipping them as calves now.

If you wanted to do things the "smart way" or lower risk way you could ship your calves now and rent your pasture to a feedlot. That way you are externalising the risk, can figure a profit and if the grass turns out poor you ship them home earlier.

[nicolaas]

THankyou, I too have noticed that for the last 2 yrs anyway the time to sell grassers is mid august thru the first week in september. THe market definitely drops off after that. Prices has been so poor that last year I bit the bullet and got rid of 1/3 of my cows and their offspring. I view it as an ideal time to bring up the caliber of my cows on average, and plan to start keeping back about 40 - 50 good heifers from the remainder of my herd. ONe thing about the low prices, it changed my attitude and has driven me to get rid of any cow that has cost me ANY bit of grief during the year (ie crazy, dangerous, big teats, bad feet, etc. I refuse to work hard for minimum wage anymore!
Thankyou guys for your input...anyone elses viewpoint is most welcome. It is going to be one heck of an interesting year, is it not?