Forage and grain prices

[charliep]

In my defense, sometimes the banter side in a coffee shop such as this
is likely the most accurate gauge for prices (particularly on hay) and
makes up for a lack of price transparency. In the feed grain price
surveys government does, I also know we get the bid side only so there
is no gauge to actual traded values and this will be a struggle in a fast
moving market which is likely to happen over the next couple of months.

[smcgrath76]

GF - I tend to agree with a lot of your
last post. I also have deep concern for
my neighbours and the communities they
do business in. A lot of a drought on
the first of June (now mid-June) was
built in 2006, 2007, and 2008.
That said, depending on the length and
extended severity of the situation a lot
of the available tools fall down
completely as having any useful impact.
We do need better, accessible,
affordable business/environmental risk
protection programs that farmers of any
size can take or leave as needed.
I agree 100% with you that government
programs tend to penalize good managers
and reward managers who manage to the
program but I don't know any program
where someone won't figure out how to
work it.

[farmers_son]

We had a little shower this morning, maybe a tenth so far. Best moisture I have seen in a long time. One tenth of rain is not going to change a thing however. I remain optimistic that we will see a big rain within a week. If we get into July without rain it will be very, very serious. It is pretty serious right now.

It is far enough into June that we are starting to know some things.

One...The hay crop is pretty much toast. Reports are that even first cut irrigated hay production is half of normal due to cold and frost.

Two...There will be widespread sell downs of the cow herd unless there is adequate forage availability. $100 a bale hay is more than most will or can pay in 2009. Might have happened in 2002 but not this year.

Three...This far into the season the only hope of good to above average forage crops will be from cereal production.

Four...There are a lot of acres seeded to particularly canola but other crops that are basically not going to amount to a crop. If those acres could be reseeded to a oats, barley or some other cereal they could produce a lot of feed. This needs to happen sooner not later.

If the Government is looking for what can be done, and that is a big IF, then anything that can be done to encourage forage production should be considered. Crop insurance policy in Alberta is you have to wait until July to reseed or you loose all or part of your crop insurance. If producers would reseed now and still get their full crop insurance payment they would consider doing reseeding for feed. Sure people have made cattle feed out of canola but it is better and easier to make good feed out of barley and oats. We need a lot of barley and oat acres seeded right now if we are to have enough feed to feed the cow herd this winter. However no one will sacrifice their crop insurance coverage which can be $150, $200 per acre or more in order to seed a new forage crop which cannot be insured and may not make anything if it does not rain.

I have heard talk, and it is at a level above coffee shop talk, that there could be a $25 per acre reseeding benefit to encourage those acres to be reseeded. I think if producers could get full insurance and get paid $25 per acre to reseed to forage that it could see tens of thousands of acres producing a forage crop for this fall instead on nothing. That needs to be considered.

[per]

Not sure if it will help as some of the meetings are done but barley at Okotoks is trading and moving for July pick up @ $3.70 a bushel at the bin.

[smcgrath76]

Has anyone made it out to one of these
meetings? I missed Wainwright as we were
moving cows, but spoke to a neighbour who
was there.
Any exciting, invigorating things
discussed?