Market Bottom?

[Zaphod]

So the USDA report today looked like it would be bearish but futures ended higher. Does that mean we're near the bottom? Durum and spring wheat production were way above estimates, by the way.

[dalek]

Not sure but I like the way our basis on corn and soybeans shifted today, new crop prices up about 8% on corn and beans 5% locally.

[cottonpicken]

Keep your eye on the money.

http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=DXZ9&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evn t=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClVsNs67r7M

[Kodiak]

A key reversal in wheat? Contract lows made early in the day and a higher close......

What needs to happen to confirm?

[SASKFARMER3]

zap I kind of agree maybe we hit bottom. But still funny how heavy rain in USA *beans under water) corn stalks rotting etc. Frost three nights in a row, harvest ending rain in Canad were called for 2 plus inches yet the markets dont react at all. They seem to view it as a huge crop that's getting bigger day by day. Funny not one day does the market really react to shitty harvest weather and they have that right now.
So maybe this is the bottom lets hope so.
Also if one sells most crop or 1/3 at a high and 2/3 at low zap is it a good year.
We did get to 1/2 late last night before the rain. Just.

[Zaphod]

I think the oats reacted on Monday to the lousy forecasts. There's still a lot out there that will get stained and end up a 3. On the big markets, there's too much spec money to react on the weather, IMO.

[Zaphod]

Agree that the US dollar is important. On the dollar index, 76 cents is key.

[Zaphod]

Zap, oats will not become a 3 because of staining alone.

Mildew oats will make a 3, not stained oats.

[parsley]

I'm going out on a Parsley limb.

Not a lot of oats in the country. If the US dollar changes a lot, even #3 is going to surprise you.

[fjlip]

Not as much seeded, most still in swath here, but lots of carryover. Talk mail this AM, P&H $2 oats Jan delivery.

[fjlip]

Pars, your not going on a limb.

Your just speaking the truth.


Look out!

[Zaphod]

A buddy told me he got a $2.70 bid for Sept 2010. I think he's going to take it (for his 09 crop).

[checking]

Viterra was visiting yesterday. It was looking for oats @ $2.50 for September 2010. Did we jump? Not a chance.

[parsley]

Some of the "HORSIES" crowd don't care what they pay for oats. It's the market you want to go a courtin' if you have good heavy oats, want to go on a few little trips and like to hone your one to one marketing skills.

Bag em fancy, look the HORSIE in the eye, and say, "It's $XX.00/ bushel Canadian, delivered, unless of course, your horse isn't a a well bred horse.

That'll do it every time.

I grew up with and on a horse. pars