Statistics Canada Estimates -

[charliep]

The following site contains the Statscan estimates.

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/011005/d011005b.htm

Comments/your thoughts on implications?

[rain]

Sell a little of anything. Hold the rest as long as you can?

What do you think?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

When did Stats Can become a political tool for Ralphie G.?

Here is what they said on Canola:

"Seeded acreage was down 18% to 9.9 million acres due to dry conditions, large inventories, and lacklustre demand from export markets as well as domestic crushers."

I got one of the best basis levels in years from an elevator company, and certainly there was no restriction in how much Canola one could presell this spring!

What on carry over stocks are they talking about, I thought this summer we had a lower carryover, significantly lower than the last couple of years!

THe reason the CWB got Wheat in the ground, and Canola got shorted, was Ralphie G. anf Ag Canada let the CWB decieve everyone into believing wheat was sure to go up!

Now we know, as I suspected last spring, and CWB PRO's for Sept. prove that these CWB estimates were all falicies, and based on less than reliable guesses!!

I can't believe CWB bias and propaganda has made it into Stats Canada!!!

Just how deep do CWB moles go, and by what arm twisting did this happen?

[charliep]

Tom4cwb

I suggest you have a look at the December MGE futures chart. The one I am looking at doesn't go back to March but this contracts prices were $3.55/bu in May versus $3.05/bu today.

The only other comment I can make is the Statistics Canada and CWB forecasting processes are completely separate. They are both run by professionals who work hard to publish an accurate forecast. I understand and have faith in both processes with a healthy recognition of some of their processes and flaws.

[bbrindle]

I agree with Charlie.

[rockpile]

Charlie and Barb,
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. Tom 4 is too far gone to be taken seriously. My question is, with the events of Sept 11, the now retaliatory actions, and the further de-stabilization of Middle-Eastern security, are we headed further down the drain, and more importantly, for how long? What 'clues' should we be looking for in the next six months, in terms of a 2002 planting strategy? Or do we wait patiently for the new US farm bill? I would suspect less direct financial intervention in the US farm sector (diverted to military), but also a decline in marketing options. I guess as Canadians, we have the option of doing the usual - sit on the fence with both ears to the ground. I sure don't see anything positive happening too soon. Do you?
Rockpile

[rockpile]

Yikes,
My apologies - I meant Brenda - I type much slower than I think.
Rockpile

[charliep]

rockpile

I am going to do the civil servant soft shoe and bounce this ball back in the air for discussion. My thoughts are that food is still a needed commodity and a major portion of living peacefully in this world will be to help others feed themselves. A hungary person is a lot more likely to fight/commit terrorism than someone who has food/is able to provide a decent standard of living for their families in a safe environment. This presents an opportunity for the future, not a threat.

Others comments on living in a new world?

Charlie P.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie and Brenda,

I am in shock!!!

I took my info February (2001) from crop insurance numbers, and take a guess who crop insurance gets its what and barley information from, could it just possibly be the CWB!!! Is it just coincidence that the CWB PRO and Crop Insurance insurable values by accident were the same, I don't think so.

You both failed to even comment on the unfair comments Stats Canada made on Canola marketing and carry overs,

Why?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

On the MGE Dec 01 drop from $3.55 to $3.10, as Chaffmiester correctly explained there is a big difference between a PRO and the futures especially many months in the future!!!

Carry in the market, fo interest and risk is a big part of it!!!

Dec 02 is at $3.47 today, the point being the PRO means nothing if the CWB has not been selling grain into the pool that could possibly create the revenue stream to pay the prices they are suggesting we will receive!!

And is the CWB even now selling 2001-02 pool grain yet?

I understand that on a normal year that the CWB does not cut the pool sales off until Oct 15 - 30th, for the crop year ending August 1st.

Is this not right?

Now I am told the CWB makes a projection for Ag Canada including Crop Insurance dept. within Ag Canada, and I understand these projections happen in December 2001 for the 2002-03 CWB Crop Year, just who do you think AG CANADA will get their info from, if not the CWB then who,(maybe the tooth fairy)?

At any rate as Chafmiester said the old EPR meant something as we get into the pooling year and the CWB has sales to weight the pool.

But for a pool that has no sales attributable to it, as it has yet to begin, the CWB is simply guessing as to what prices it will sell grain for.

This is why it is so frustrating to deal with the CWB, they are so concerned with basis levels, that the actual price recieved by we "designated area" grain producers cannot compare to a well thought out stategic marketing plan!!!

THis is a long way from Stats Canada, but believe me they get a pile of info, yes even Canola marketing info from CWB/AG CANADA types!!!

Now, do you understand better what I was attempting to say earlier?

[charliep]

You ask a whole bunch of good question here Tom from CWB hedging (or lack thereof), how inventory is valued between crop years in the CWB pooling process, price forecasting for all aspects of business including crop insurance levels, etc, etc. I have been and/or am currently involved in all these processes.

A comment I can make is none of these issues are easy to deal so a person/organization has to develop processes/procedures that can be supported by logic and repeated consistently in future time periods.

The objective here is not to criticize the proffessionals who do the work but rather review the processes of how things are done and come up with positive suggestions for change.

I suggest we break the topics up a bit and deal with them (if you want) in separate threads.

Charlie P.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie and Brenda,

As you know, I want people to think about what marketing plans they are going to base their farm income projections on, as things are very financially tight we can afford few "mistakes" in our projections this year.

I would be MUCH happier if the CWB would switch to an Ontario Wheat Producer's Marketing Board (OWPMB) style of marketing.

OWPMB uses minimum price contracts as well as straight pooling options.

The CWB on CWRS, CPS, CWES, Durum, Malt Barley don't do these needed options.

Many excuses can be given why not, but we can make marketing an art form, and if we use our imaginations then just about anything is possible.

The CWB should be on the cutting edge, not being drug kicking and screaming to the table!!!

If the CWB were to take the lead on what they are responsible for, "maximizing our returns", as they have said, then I believe that marketing intelegence for AG Canada and Crop Insurance would become significantly better!

And then knee jerk comments saying that the Canola industry did a poor job of providing marketing opportunities and options would hopefully not show up in Stats Canada reports any more, and that would be a good thing, wouldn't it Charlie and Brenda?

[rockpile]

Charlie,
You shorted me on insight, especially on next year's Durum markets. But you did make a valid point of having supply and meeting global demand. I have a question. There are huge amounts of corn being unloaded in this area for local feeders, 50 cars at a time, keeping trucks running 24 hours a day. Rumors are that it could be Starlink, not sellable in the US. My question is, if it is coming from North Dakota, Iowa, and Illinois, what are the buyers paying for it, at the farmgate, considering what the cost of rail transport to get it here must be? How can 3.25/bu barley be out of range? Something smells here.
Rockpile

[charliep]

Rockpile

I am going to switch these two topics to separate threads.