I am lucky enough to have my crop harvested. I have sold 50% of my canola at decent prices. Have sold 0 wheat and hope that the CWB comes through in the pool account.
I am not looking to base my whole opinion on one person and go with it. I am just looking for more opinions with supporting reasons to base my own opinion on. For example if the posts just say that canola is going to $20, that is great, but I kind of want to know what you are basing your gut feeling on.
I was not farming in the 70's and do not have a lot of experience there, so I am trying to learn and not repeat a lot of mistakes made in the late 70's. I remember that 76 77 were great years for grain prices, much like 2007 2008 were. Then the price of equipment and land skyrocketed because farmers had money. Next thing I remember is that interest rates were extremely high in about 1979-1980, with rates of 20%.
But I don't remember what the commdity prices and yields were in 1979 1980. If the farms had locked in long term mortgages at 6-7%, would they have been fine in the late 70's early 80's, or were the prices so poor that any kind of debt was a no-no.
I am worried that we are sitting at about 1978 in the current outlook. If we were not in such a deep recession, I would suggest that the overproduction of wheat and the current outlook for massive corn and soybean crops suggests lower prices are here for a couple of years. Most times in an oversupply situation, it pays to sell most of your grain early in the year, and forward price some for next year early as well or hold it all for a couple of years. I feel that if the recession deepens then consumers will be forced to cut back more, or gov't will have to tax heavier and force consumers to have less disposable income.
Just hoping to bounce ideas back and forth, as production is my area of strength and marketing is an area that I could use more lessons in.
I am not looking to base my whole opinion on one person and go with it. I am just looking for more opinions with supporting reasons to base my own opinion on. For example if the posts just say that canola is going to $20, that is great, but I kind of want to know what you are basing your gut feeling on.
I was not farming in the 70's and do not have a lot of experience there, so I am trying to learn and not repeat a lot of mistakes made in the late 70's. I remember that 76 77 were great years for grain prices, much like 2007 2008 were. Then the price of equipment and land skyrocketed because farmers had money. Next thing I remember is that interest rates were extremely high in about 1979-1980, with rates of 20%.
But I don't remember what the commdity prices and yields were in 1979 1980. If the farms had locked in long term mortgages at 6-7%, would they have been fine in the late 70's early 80's, or were the prices so poor that any kind of debt was a no-no.
I am worried that we are sitting at about 1978 in the current outlook. If we were not in such a deep recession, I would suggest that the overproduction of wheat and the current outlook for massive corn and soybean crops suggests lower prices are here for a couple of years. Most times in an oversupply situation, it pays to sell most of your grain early in the year, and forward price some for next year early as well or hold it all for a couple of years. I feel that if the recession deepens then consumers will be forced to cut back more, or gov't will have to tax heavier and force consumers to have less disposable income.
Just hoping to bounce ideas back and forth, as production is my area of strength and marketing is an area that I could use more lessons in.
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