Canola in Field!

[SASKFARMER3]

If Saskatchewan has 40 percent of the crop still in the field. I believe this say an average of 35 That would leave close to 2 million tons in the field. Hm over winter its mostly burn in spring. Depends on Winter but from experience Burning is best. Worthless. So if its a 11 mill crop minus 2 equals 9 HM. Yes we should get some but the forecast till the 22 looks totally crappy highs in 2 to 9 Wow.
Now I didn't get total Sask acreage or Alberta or Manitoba but just say we dont get to harvest this crop. Lets pray we do but what if we dont.

[furrowtickler]

Thats 2mmt in Sask, now through in the bits and peices from Alberta and Manatoba.

[SASKFARMER3]

Thats 2.5 to 3 in field minus the 11 and were at a crop of 8 mill. Hm

[cottonpicken]

Where the hell has Tom been?Whats going on in his area.

[SASKFARMER3]

Not sure he has been quiet for quite a while, Yes would be nice to know what up in that area.

[SASKFARMER3]

Working on strategies, Who will have crop over winter who wont, What fields to take what to leave, how high to start combining, Deals with Crushers and Elevator, Busy busy few days. And with 15 day forecast sucking slough water (frozen slough) a lot of sleepless nights ahead. Come on Indian (political correct 1st Canadian)Summer.

[poorboy]

Lots of years harvest does not finish until the end of October. Lets not write the crop off yet. Hopefully there will be one more good shot to finish the harvest. Unnecessary stress from factors you can't control is not good for you or others around you.

My friend explained it this way to me. We had cold and freezing spring temps for 3 weeks later than normal. The june rains seemed to come in July and the September heat wave usually comes in August. Normally we get a cold wet spell in September, just like we are seeing now. So my friends explanation says that every season is 3 weeks late.......so we should have 3 weeks later than normal to finish our fall work before winter sets in. Sounds good to me.

[wd9]

Forecast for east central ab for next 7 and 10 cm snow. There is a couple on the ground now:

high 0°C 1°C 1°C 1°C 1°C 1°C
Low -8°C -6°C -7°C -8°C -4°C -4°C

Canola looks about 60% done. Towards Tom's area it looks like less is done cuz the crops were very late from frost and dry.

[boarderbloke]

I was asking on another thread whether anyone has seen freeze-up as early as mid Oct. Our forecast is similar to yours, maybe colder over night (perhaps because we don't have any snow)

Do yo think, with that temp forecast, that freeze-up could occur? what if you didn't have snow?

[Choice2U]

Agree that we may be just 3 weeks later than usual but i have to add one big butt (lol), we've had 50mm of moisture over the past week. With the colder temps and shorter days (shorter days doesn't follow the 3 week scenerio), how will things dry out. If it were just tough straw, one could take things off frozen but I'm sure everything has a sky high moisture content. Also, a 5 degree frost this time of year is usually not that big of a deal but what does it do to a seed with 20 - 25% MC from all the rain?

[boarderbloke]

what a canola trader thinks, from yesterday, Oct 7th

http://www.agriculture.com/ag/futuresource/FutureSourceStoryIndex.jhtml;jsessionid=KR1NGGVQHY OEYCQCEARCCAQ?storyType=grain&storyId=168900824

[TOM4CWB]

Hi Folks,

I would say 65% canola harvested on average... south central AB 75%

Most cereals finished.

Straight cut guys ones who are in big trouble! 50%?

[SASKFARMER3]

So let me get this right according to the trader supply is huge so no worry. $400 magic number for highest price. So again why the hell do the canola growers association feel we need a 15,000,000.00 to crop and are bragging and bragging about it. If a PS poor 11 ton or less crop drives demand and prices down, what the hell will 15 get us back to when we started canola at 4 to 6 a bushel.

[Kodiak]

I saw the same story. As soon as I saw who they were quoting I didn't bother reading any further.

[Kodiak]

Anyone who listens this BS, needs to find a better read.

If Ken Ball honestly believes that the market cares one bit about supply and demand, he wouldn't make a very good trader IMHO.

How many bean, canola, corn, cotton, coffee,cocoa etc..etc.. shortages were there on 08???

Like I said if anyone has a second. Take a look at a COT chart.....The proof is in the pudding.