Oats

[cottonpicken]

We have some action this morning,up 6.35%.

[SASKFARMER3]

Oats is one of the crops thats still in field and in our area almost all swath. Boy will that be fun to pick up now. My standing is down but still not flat. Oct delivery is a problem for some.

[cottonpicken]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=14139

[cottonpicken]

Dont know if it helps anyone but weyburn inland terminal stayed open threw the holiday and is taking flax at 7 something dollars.

Hauling without lineups=awsome

[tipsy]

You got some or all your flax off?Looks like mine will be a spring job,oh-well the eurpoeans aren't really interested in flax right now anyways.Maybe spring flax with some organic deer turds in it may appeall to them more!

[mbratrud]

CP flax prices at 8 dollars available in Weyburn.

Oats I think a lot of the oats out are going to be poor. $2.50 should soon be available march april.

[checking]

Your choice of words was direct, and to the point on flax whether $7.00 or $8.00/bushel. They are taking it, or is it the farmer that's being took???

[mbratrud]

Checking, I guess that remains to be seen. Gonna be a big flax crop the question now is how much sits out until spring. Fact of the matter is we are heading towards .5 mmt carryout regardless when it comes off.

[mbratrud]

Checking, I guess that remains to be seen. Gonna be a big flax crop the question now is how much sits out until spring. Fact of the matter is we are heading towards .5 mmt carryout regardless when it comes off.

[checking]

This same poor weather event with flax, in our area, occurred in fall 2004 to a more limited degree. I'd remember this a whole lot better if it had happened to us, but guys were snow combining flax in November and December. Only that time, the elevators had a program on buying tough-damp ice crystalled flax, 24 hour/day drying it, in addition to laying their hands on all they could of product that had come off before the weather event, for mixing. I'd be very surprised if that situation happens in 2009. From records, I see we sold flax late Feburary through late May, 2005 for $515.70 to $590.52/tonne. I'd be very surprised to see that situation happen in 2010.

Having said that, I think you might agree that the "flax out" people are on their own for getting it into some sort of store position, or really taking a beating at the elevator that sees an opportunistic advantage to dry it down to match a sale.

$7.00-$8.00/ bushel doesn't cut it for me at 20 bushels/acre. A .25% interest rate, if I sold it, bank deposited cheque doesn't cut it. My head spins at how many years it would take to double that plan. I'd rather sit on my dry, binned flax, and gamble on a turn around doubling it than give it away to an elevator company, or a bank.

Apparently, no elevator line ups sometimes, for some people, tops price. Apparantly, and I agree with you, there will be a whopper carry over. And definitely, I don't know about you, but the expression, "when pigs fly", comes to mind if the remaining trade believes that I'll be sowing flax next spring, or springs to come at those prices.

Seriously, how do you guys survive? It has to be on whopper yields that don't show up on stat reports.

[cottonpicken]

Why are you ASSuming i'm hauling flax checking.I was hauling 1 durum.

And no line ups still equals awesome.

[checking]

Just yanking your chain to see the light come on. I'm sorry.

I realize you determined that flax was a dead industry six years ago, so didn't bite on seeding 25% of your land base to it. That type of observance is impressive. Flax growers wish you would have kept posting those thoughts.

[mbratrud]

Agree Checking that $8 flax @ 20bpa sucks. If you can afford to keep it for a long time which is more feasable right now with low interest rates. who knows maybe this time next year or 24 months from now flax will look much better!

Some guys looking at it from different perspective though, 30 - 40 bpa maybe had some locked in at $12 and even with $8 their avereage price and net per acre looks pretty good. From a risk stand point and the uncertainty in the flax market it is pretty risky to pass up decent margins like that.

So depending on which hat your wearing I guess the decision process is a little different.

Not likely to see drying programs like 04 unless flax goes significantly higher. In 04 there were many $8/bushel contracts that were at risk of not being filled and the market had shot up to $12 plus per bushel. So for buyers to make sure they got those cheaper contracts filled they had to get creative. Much of the pre priced stuff this year was at $10 or higher and some companies in light of the GMO issue are long and wrong. Some may even be hoping guys can't get their flax off or at least the guys with higher priced contracts.

[cottonpicken]

Can ypoiu kindly stop putting words in my mouth

This is the first year I didn't grow flax in a long time

The reasons were anything but thinking it was a dead industry

I was actually quite bullish

[Hopperbin]

Ditto about the oats price sky rocketing.
What is left in the field which is a lot is going to be damaged seed which will not make the milling market any more unless they drop their specs. What is left the field is homeless feed right now.