Oats

[mbratrud]

Agree Checking that $8 flax @ 20bpa sucks. If you can afford to keep it for a long time which is more feasable right now with low interest rates. who knows maybe this time next year or 24 months from now flax will look much better!

Some guys looking at it from different perspective though, 30 - 40 bpa maybe had some locked in at $12 and even with $8 their avereage price and net per acre looks pretty good. From a risk stand point and the uncertainty in the flax market it is pretty risky to pass up decent margins like that.

So depending on which hat your wearing I guess the decision process is a little different.

Not likely to see drying programs like 04 unless flax goes significantly higher. In 04 there were many $8/bushel contracts that were at risk of not being filled and the market had shot up to $12 plus per bushel. So for buyers to make sure they got those cheaper contracts filled they had to get creative. Much of the pre priced stuff this year was at $10 or higher and some companies in light of the GMO issue are long and wrong. Some may even be hoping guys can't get their flax off or at least the guys with higher priced contracts.

[cottonpicken]

Can ypoiu kindly stop putting words in my mouth

This is the first year I didn't grow flax in a long time

The reasons were anything but thinking it was a dead industry

I was actually quite bullish

[Hopperbin]

Ditto about the oats price sky rocketing.
What is left in the field which is a lot is going to be damaged seed which will not make the milling market any more unless they drop their specs. What is left the field is homeless feed right now.

[checking]

Oooo-kay. Saying sorry doesn't cut it with some people either.

Would !@#$%^&*()<> be more to your liking?

Alright, why did you back away from sowing flax this spring?

[cottonpicken]

It was flax or mustard and mustard had been more profitable in the past.

Dumb luck.

[cottonpicken]

Hopper exactly why will all the Oats be feed??

Still lots of #2-3 Oats out there. Crops don't damage when freezing for a week straight. Rainy cool weather for 2 weeks and 10-15 degrees temps, you have issues.

Thrashed some oats today 0 mildew.

[Hopperbin]

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sis10952/$FILE/chart2lg.gif

Damaged oat groats on account weather and delayed harvest. Second column.

[Hopperbin]

Not sure what your showing me?? I know the specs hopper.

I'm saying you will not have a #3-4 oats on staining.

Some might try to tell you so.... But shop around.

[cottonpicken]

Crucial resistance levels 2.75,3.00 and then were gone with hot money taking us to new highs.

The ONLY thing that will take this away is a rally in the usdx-which is breaking resistance downward and has 67ish written all over it.

[checking]

We actually thought about your "dumb luck" crop plan, but discarded it due to the fall grasshopper lay, and a bunch of negative experiences.

Difference between #1 and #3 is .2% excreta. Want to try upgrading, and have had up to 9% sound mustard taken as dockage (of no value) to accomplish this. Our comment was to return this 9% to us, and we would use it as seed with the grasshopper crap as fertilizer.

We've sold lots of it in the 59 to 75 cent/lb range, but even at the point of feeling good on a stage coach riding shotgun on a super B load, I hate the games that brokers and buyers play with mustard.

So, I'm going to leave that market to you. Flax will make a comeback.