Is Agriculture Immune to Economic Volatility

[parsley]

Welcome Shaun,

I've clicked on your blog many times.

The AV boys get to feeling their oats a little when the sun comes up, and they ride 1/4 of a round, on these damp days and then, horrors, plug up solid with flax winding and have to dig it out with a crowbar. LOL

Just ignore them when they're testy, and thanks for stopping by. Pars

[rockpile]

Thanks Shaun, I'll check out your website, thank-you for your contribution.
Rockpile

[Ron]

when i run out of beer i will give your site a sober look. take cotton with a grain...er...pound of salt.
i think he means well he just really speaks his mind.
i am sure we are all civil nice people in person.

[cottonpicken]

Whoops hyde jumped out of the bottle last night

Sorry for the profanity

[joedales]

Hi Cotton:

Please go easy on the profanity....alot of the users point it out to me and I hate to be the ref....I cleaned out the swearing....you can get your point across with out insulting the people with tough words.

I asked Shaun to participate on Agriville, he is a young farmer who I had the pleasure to visit this summer near Picture Butte, Alberta.

Check out his website at www.realagriculture.com and you will see he is with you if you are for agriculture and farmers. I doubt you guys will agree on everything...

Welcome Shaun, I guess I forgot to tell you this was a full contact discussion forum.

Thanks,

Joe Dales

[may-be]

A broker in the US told me three mounths ago that thier dollar was going to drop with all the stimulas money being throwen out. But it will come back up when it is all spent.

[charliep]

Perhaps Danny's points were as follows.

1) The chickens will come home to roost for the US and world economies. We are not necessarily out of the woods yet. A point I suspect most will agree on. Further risk ahead.

2) Some are offering supply managment as a solution. Has worked to a large extent Canadian dairy and feather industries but challenges ahead. Likely will not work for other industries (somewhat being tried with hogs).

3) Farmers need to manage their businesses keeping this uncertain future in mind when making decisions about investing in assets. Each one of you will have a different approach given your financial situation and risk tolerance but you need to be prepared for the stormy seas that lie ahead. The direction of agriculture opportunities may be up but it will not be a straight line.

4) My own note is to be prepared for things that can't be forecast but will have significant impact on your business. Not a alarmist hopefully but note the first H1N1 diagnosis in a US pig. Not a safety issue around meat but a worry none the less is the disease makes a big move into the hog industry. Stuff happens.

[cottonpicken]

Holy cow-i can hardly contain myself when it comes to this sh.. i meam stuff.

The system is failing,and i can guarantee were not out of the woods and were never going to make it out.

What was it that got us here?

Ignoring very simple capitalistic principles that even the ancient greeks new about.

Anyone that calls themselves an economist and utters the words "supply managment" needs to get out of the way and let the grown ups run the show.

It is so anti-capitalist and non-sensical it doesnt deserve the time of a debate because it is so obvious.

Wheat shot up to twenty bucks(nobody could predict that though eh?)-and the reasons it did were all givin by danny but he failed to regonize it.

Is Anybody by a show of hands going to have problems paying bills when wheat shoots back up?


And the great cheerleading call of the day is THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO DO SOMETHING-more help from the people who got us here.

[shaney]

I seriously don't think that you actually listened to the video cotton. Dr. Leroy says that supply managged industries are in trouble not that he is a proponent of them.

On your comments regarding the fact wheat went up. He's an economist and not a market trader.

[charliep]

Also have to note wheat is not $20/bu anymore. Markets have reacted to the opportunity presented by winter 2008 rally. Suspect that $5/bu wheat is a reality for a while. Even more telling is the North American market share of world wheat trade is declining - a sign we are not competitive and being replaced by non traditional (at least in our lifetime) wheat exporters.

One thing I didn't mention was Danny's comments that we need to expand our markets outside North America. Also that we need to look at marketing to specific customers versus simply selling to anyone.

[furrowtickler]

Wheat was never $20 in Canada, never will be. The PRO's never broke $8/bus farm gate. Call it like it was guys, it was high for two weeks, at best.

[shaney]

so I guess I'll bring the discussion back to the beginning. Do you agree with dr. Leroy that agriculture is not immune to ecnomic downturns like some suggest.

[parsley]

Of course we are not immune.

The biggest challenge for producers, imho, will be a burdomsome taxation shift to rural landowners in order to subvert cutbacks and lay offs. Pars

[rockpile]

Hi Shaun, checked out your website today, good on you! The Haney name is well known and respected in Alberta. As for Dr. Leroy, the proof is already on the table. Especially hard hit are those commodities purchased by 'wealthier' consummers. It's back to Kraft dinner for many...
Pars, your comments make no sense at all, are you picking up where Cott left off?
Rockpile

[dalek]

Charlie re your point #4, might be a good week to stock up on turkey for Christmas (and Easter)

http://www.healthzone.ca/health/newsfeatures/swineflu/article/712918--turkey-h1n1-outbreak-poses-no-food-risk