Is Agriculture Immune to Economic Volatility

[cottonpicken]

Ok shaney or rocky or whoever define what the economic problem is and how it pertains to canadian ag.

[Hopperbin]

Problem is
CFIP payments will be so high only 25 percent will be paid out. Some that need it won't get it. At least you got your crop off Cotton.

[vagabonddreamer]

cotton....you DIDNT watch the video...you COULDNT have watched it...the first half of the interview his analysis is basically what you have been saying on AGVille for the past year and a half...and he DEFINITELY is not a proponent of marketing boards...in fact he thinks they will ultimately fail...as will anything that is not market driven...he also echos that high interest rates are coming and...people are going to be hurting....you have been saying that all along...

if i didnt know any better i would have thought it was YOU in the video...except that this guy was obviously younger, better looking and able to string a lucid sentence together....

as to his mannerisms and ability to function in front of the camera...the guy was EASY to watch...not awkward at all...YES he looked at notes occasionally but i will wager that you wouldnt be able to complete an interview like that at ALL never mind without the use of profanity....i could only imagine....you remind me of a cowardly bully...its one thing to take shots at other members of this site...when they have the opportunity to take shots back....but another thing...to rant like a drunken five year old....when your "victim" isnt even able to defend himself...

your posts with respect to that interview are pathetic at best...vs

[cottonpicken]

vs this......



He never specifically said one way or another how stupid supply management is but by not putting his foot down and blurting out "all of ag in canada could be supply managed" im willing to go out on a limb and say somethings fishy.Just like most of yous beloved conservative hoodlums party who have rescently crowned themselves queens of double speak.

Now..darrk days for canadian ag eh???
Because of a rising looney ehhh??
And possibility of higher interest rates ehhh??

First-the dollar is rising because because we are the closest currency to a commodity play as you can get.How can i say this without drawing a picture.People want our dollars because they are(rightly)predicting that raw resources to feed chindia will be worth something.How does this simple truth compute with dr.danny's logic.Doesnt quite fit eh???

Interest rates will cripple us?Well lets go back to the early eighties and attempt a shot at some sixth grade math.How high were land prices and how high were interest rates?
If they get back up there trust me i'll be the first one shouting to liquidate everything and buy bonds.

BBBBUTT>>>> guess what bank of canada is holding rates at .25 % as of TODAY.

The dr thinks interest rates must rise-he is ASSuming the bond market is functioning in a normal matter.Well hes been in a badger hole because hes never heard of quantitative easing.I need to explain this one.

Most people are unaware that it is the central banks obligation to follow the markets lead when setting bond yields.Depending on different things the lenders may want a higher return on investment.This in turn effects the price of the bond(which is the inverse of the yield)and the free market ends up settling the situation.However the us government has been printing money to buy bonds.Why?-to stop rates from rising-So what?-there will be no shortage of people willing to buy canadian bonds.

Who cares?

Commodities care because they are priced in dollars.

I said a year ago the us bond market is the most important thing in the world.

And seeing as how china has enough money to buy all the farmland in the US(go ahead and read that again if you need to)i seriously doubt we are on any sort of defationary path.And my best friend gold told me the same thing that he told me six years ago and which i then told all of you.

Imagine that an old,ugly,drunken,non-lucid armchair economist that hasnt needed to revise or change his position in SIX years.

[parsley]

Dr. Danny defines interest rates^ and difficulty of exporting as two main reasons for farmers' economic angst.

As you well know, rockpile, I've said many times I thought interest rates will be a problem and even made a bet on AV about them.

But Dr. Danny didn't mention taxation.

Laying off employees and cutting services will be difficult. But municipal taxes in hard times in the past were the cause of people losing land. Few will have sympathy for large landowners and they will tax them to death. imho. Pars

[charliep]

cottonpicken

Perhaps a life experience you need is too have a camera and lights
poked in your face for 6 minutes and be asked to deal with a topic.
Camera rolls and what you say is recorded. You have 6 minutes and no
more to make your point. Not in any way, shape or form easy. Have had
the privilege of sharing an adult pop or two with Danny. Suspect you
would have an interesting conversation with him where there would be
more agreement than argument.

[JDGreen]

it is 900-1000/an acre here .. Any less and you buy nothing.. And yes this is red lentil ground and yes that is why its high and yes it works at the current red lentil prices and yes I think it is retarded and yes i have paid these prices and no it will not take 25 years to pay for itself when first crop off grosses 600-700/acre with less than 150/acre into it.. Example 2000 Ib red crop in 2008 and 50 bpa canola crop in 2009 on same 1/4. Land has grossed over 1100/acre in first 2 years..

[dave4441]

There are alot of things that I worry about in the course of my day, municipal taxes are not one of them.

[parsley]

Perhaps for you Dave, especially if you are sitting on a swack of cash, but the one group that is really having a problem, according to some of the Sask Ag department reports, is the large acerage farmer with high input costs, depending upon a good crop and good prices to get him into the next year, to make his payments. Add high interest rates, government payouts lessened, and all of a sudden, taxation goes into arrears.
Pars

[dave4441]

Large farmers do not have higher input costs, they should be similar or even a bit better. Effeciences should also be as good. They have more cash flow issues I agree with that, but costs are not higher.

[parsley]

I worded it not carefully enough for you, but fuel, fertilizer. chemicals, etc. are high costs on the farm, and ones not predictable.

[parsley]

Dr. Danny gave a credible enough performance, but I guess with oil over eighty dollars today, some wouldn't hear what he said, anyhow.