If we have 2 to 3 Million ton of Canola in field can Canada meet its commitments.

[SASKFARMER3]

Here is a question that some one should soon answer. If this dam crop doesn't come off and their is oh lets say 3 million tons (And I don't want to here the BS that its only the poor fields that didn't get harvested) left over winter. (11 - 3 = 8)or (10.5 - 4 = 6.5) Will those crush plants have to shut down. Will basis improve, Will we loose foreign markets because cant produce enough product. ETC ETC ETC. Charlie or some one what will happen?

[charliep]

Basis levels are likely to stay relatively tight. Crush margins should
also narrow as the cost of canola seed increases more than products -
puts canola values in terms of other markets. Would also watch the
loonie however and the price of crude oil.

There is an expression bull markets have long tails. The market will
adjust to a new reality with things like China not buying or Japan
buying more canola elsewhere. Crushers can run at less than full
capacity. In another month, the supply side of Canadian canola will
become apparent over the next few weeks. Consumption will slow to
reflect this. If you go back over history, some of our tightest
production years have been years of normal carryovers - farmers held
too long. Some of our biggest crops have had relatively small
carryovers - demand stepped up to use the crop and farmers
delivered. Any boost in canola prices in a cereal market that can be
best described as lackluster to anemic will put more canola acres in
the ground.

Not suggesting there isn't room for increases in canola prices. Just be
realistic and be prepared to sell in small chunks/on rallies. I still like
the idea of being sold out canola by the end of March and if I were
bullish into the spring summer, buy futures/calls. Again, more than
one way to skin a cat.

[cottonpicken]

If i had no canola to cover my position i would get out of those positions pronto.

If i had significant amount of drying ahead of me i would get long on some natural gas(probably will anyway) it looks like a double from here.

[mbratrud]

Fact is though there is still 11.5 million tonnes maybe more production. There will not be 3mil in the field maybe 1mil and it will get harvested in spring and even if there is 20% lost to shatter still only trims number by less than quarter million tonnes.

In my grain buying days bought lots of spring threshed Canola in North Central Alberta. The Canola is not suddenly gargage it will blended away into the rest.

I truly believe this little rally due to weather may translate into a great selling oportunity.

4 terminals within hauling distance of my now drying Canola. I think we will find there is a pile of Canola that is now going to hit the Market sooner than it might have before and may actually push things down a bit at least widen basis levels which is evident in the past few days.

Jan $400 put options at 12 bucks or better looks pretty fancy.

Story is still the US Market and just how big is the Soybean Crop going to be?

[lesm]

Mbratrud: In the last 34 years of farming,I had to combine canola twice in November in the last 10 years. I had to leave the windrows on the north side of the bush because of snow, for spring harvest. In both those years there was absolutely zero oil in the seed - it was white ash in the seed. For you farmers thinking that there is hope for spring fresh canola, please reconsider.
My guess is it will be 100% loss. Been there, done it. If you want to thresh wet canola here is the secret. Pull out your bottom sieve because it will plug immediately. In a rotary combine pull out every second wire from your concave because it will plug full off mud and seed. Your loss sensor will not function properly because they will be coated with mud. After every hopper check your concaves and sieves to check for plugging. I am not looking forward to this again but the crop is too valuable to leave for spring threshing.

[mbratrud]

Don't get me wrong les, I am in no way saying its a good idea to leave until spring, infact quite the the contrary. I think guys should be taking to anyone who has a dryer and making arrangments to get this stuff off.

What I was trying to point out is at the end of the day I would be very surprised if there was 2-3 million tonne lost. I would also bet a steak supper that there will be alot more Canola come of before the new year.

I have seen lots of spring threshed canola and yes not pretty but it does get blended away. As for Yeild loss I suppose it would largly depend on the intensity of the Winter.

[wd9]

Saskfarmer, yes they can.

[wd9]

Les, don't get me wrong here.

You may have had shit Canola those 2 springs in the last 10,(those are probably the same 2 years I left Canola out) in my experience both times the Canola was fine hauled it in no questions asked, no oil content checked.

In 02 we had 1500 acres out in spring it was all fine.

So not saying your full of it. But just want guys to know there can be good outcomes also.

Now the question I ask what would the differences been between yours and mine that one would be crap and other be #1?? Colder winter?? Less snow possibly??

[Hopperbin]

Snappy cannot say with any certainty that you are full of shit but talking to neighbors with credibility is that the spring thrashed stuff will be light, lots of volume but no weight there as compared to harvesting the same stuff in the fall.
And your oats is feed, don't tell me that crap that you can thrash it in the spring and sell as milling.

[Hopperbin]

I have heard that if not much snow cover then wind damage can be very bad. Also grades turn to sample for some reason. For some reason if a farmer tells me his canola turned to sample and another told me his canola was fine I would tend to believe the sample farmer. sorta like the farmer that produces 30 bpa and says he gets 50.

[SASKFARMER3]

(Snap and mouse turd you are both full of shit. I have had it out and no its not a one but real light crap most just burn in spring also oats in swath is black no one wants it. Every one in our area feels the same as me over winter and its crap. Also elevators bought it back in grand pappys day, ha ha ha wink wink here have anouther drink my good buddy at sask wheat pool and we all know what happened to them. That's from se sask.Also look at 11 not( 11.5 - 2.5 ) either way you slice it its not good. Not good at all.

[cottonpicken]

LOL!and people think i'm combative.

[SASKFARMER3]

Also read todays advise from Canola growers web site basically get the crap off it easily will grade way lower probably sample come spring. On oats front sask crop is comming to look at a lot of fields so the guys can just pale for feed. God you to get in real world. Off to fill the machines. Life aint a box of chocolates its dam tough.

[SASKFARMER3]

Sf3, who do you think the Canola council is working for??

Why do you think they want this stuff off??

Hopper, get your facts straight.

Never said spring thrashed Oats makes milling. I said any Oats out in the field right now is not feed.

And SF3, there is no way in hell CropInsurance is writing off Oats already!!

[mbratrud]

Again my point is that I dont think there will be 2 -3 mmt lost! that is the topic. I dont think that spring threshed canola is good, just pointing out the fact that it is not a complete loss. I thought this Forum was for intelligent discussion about what the Markets are going to do... SF3 Im sorry you are in an area that has lots of Canola out, but I know there is lots of guys in your area not feeling sorry for themselves and getting the shit combined and dried now!!! instead of whining how bad it will be in the spring...