China is out of the canola market.

[oneoff]

Sorry for the extra word in previous post


Apparently these good farm life opportunities are shared by less and less persons each year. How do you explain an increasing average farm owner age and very few young replacements to continue on?
After a certain age is reached; those land owners may still be the managers; but they certainly won't be doing the bulk of the farm work. Who the workers will be deserves to be studied a lot more. Don't automatically assume that those workers will ever have the same university benefits and swimming pool that a few might attain.
Maybe I'm considering a bigger overall picture; and you are looking at farming from a more personal view.

[parsley]

Posting on AV, I've expressed concern with not attracting fresh farmers. Making young people itch to farm.

Young people plus getting farming attractive again; and getting farmers first, and government agencies last; is one of the reasons why I've tried to faithfully post on AV since Day I. The past few days, I neglect the blog they set up for me, to do so.

But, no matter what, land is a good family investment.

Hard to create land.

[parsley]

Let's conclude this long loading thread, then, with your observation that I'm not a big picture kinda' gurl. Pars

[Choice2U]

After reading these negative posts about farming are you surprised that few young people are considering the profession. We are our own worst enemies. Farm numbers have been dropping since 1916 (approx) so what is new. Different causes today...I think not. Droughts, frosts, late harvests, high input costs, grain wars...I bet your grandfather would have the same stories but just different players.

We're here by choice and any business person has to be optimistic and figure out how things are changing and how they'll survive in the future. If we don't instill any optimism in our kids, they'll never follow in our footsteps.

[oneoff]

I was at the Fraser Auction today. You get to talk to people far away from the local coffeeshop; and often overhear the conversations of farmers standing next to you in the crowd.
Never have I heard such common themes regarding the current farm situation of hogs, beef cattle and grains. No sense trying to sugarcoat a bad scene to your children; yourself or the public that has varying degrees of sympathy.
If you are counting on someone else to make up the shortfalls between cost of production and what the "free market" and importers say its worth (or are out right locking you out of sales to them); then I suggest that you have an unsustainable plan. Otherwise its plain that year upon year losses in whole agriculture sectors are not going to continue for what should be viable operations.
Time will tell if Western Canadian farming is worse than "normal"; but I suspect it isn't just Mother Nature that is depressing and crushing farmers.

[vagabonddreamer]

"Otherwise its plain that year upon year losses in whole agriculture sectors are not going to continue for what should be viable operations."

oneoff...i have read several of your posts and you seem to have an analytical outlook...i am curious though on the above statement...as a terms of reference...what length of time would you place on "year upon year losses" until it is indeed self fulfilling???

as an example the cattle industry...for all intents and purposes cow/calf operations have been running at "a loss" in terms of real income for around five years...certainly by reducing input costs and reduced maintenance schedules and throwing in off ranch income...etc...some operations have been operating at a "pseudo" profit..but not a sustainable profit...ergo...more and more "old" ranches going into disbursal and hanging up the branding irons...

how long do you reckon before one should finally concede that the system doesnt "work" anymore??? it started with BSE then it was the packers...now its Mcool...none of which really have much to do with mother nature...

i do understand evolution and evolve or die...so we have continued cow/calf but have added "feeding" and selling CWF meat...but i can certainly understand why some C/C operations do not want to go this route...

do you think the scales have actually tipped to the point where we (agriculture) are falling victim to (metaphorically) Darwin's laws??

is it all about economies of scale??? do you think all agriculture will go the way of One Earth Farms type operations??? i look forward to reading your responses...vs

[oneoff]

Take the hog industry for an example. Is it not dead? One fellow commented that a hog barn in the 1970's cost $20,000 (and they got paid for) while now they are 1.5 Million (with a very bleak future). No one can pay for a barn at today's prices; and when production drops; its a matter of time till almost all slaughter capacity is lost. Hence a recipe for a lost industry. Repucussions for feed grain producers and an industry probably set back for a decade. Its a winddown for lots of other sectors too.
As for cattlemen; beef is a relatively expensive meat for the consumer. Meat eaters can also buy poultry and pork at much lower prices. On the producer cost and input side it sounds like many don't have enough hay to get through the winter. Transportation costs are significant and there is a reluctance of producers to sink more money into roughage costs. My take is that this industry is to the point where there is a reconition that cattlemen have been kicked too hard; too long for it to be taken much longer. There can be life after cows; especially for any farmers that are a little older. As many readers have conceded, there are an abundance of older farmers, There have been many acres placed in perennial grasses; and some may well stay there until root bound; but the long term seems to be a penny a pound for standing hay. That doesn't pay the real long term expenses; the PMU industry has been decimated and there just aren't any profits enough in cow calf operations. The few "optimistic" cow calf producers are probably driven by by the cheap cheap dispersal prices. That is not a slam on buyers; because were it not for bargain hunters; the market price would surely be lower.
This is getting too long to comment on the grain price and woe spiral. It looks like its grains turn to again have really hard times. Only this cycle will likely see both grains and livestock down at the same time. So much for diversification. It's sad and unfair; but another example of a set of unfortunate facts
In summary; I believe that there are opportunities to make fortunes. Some have become very successful in the past; a few are going ahead even today; and surely others will do well in the future. However; overall agriculture is in for very hard times in the near future. Thats why you don't want to be caught in the average range.
There are many recipes for success and what looks and tastes good for one; just isn't appealing to others. For examples;
1) Parsley has detailed what has worked for their family. Others may well wish to try that road. Just like any other plan it is a long term one and don't expext to jump back and forth very often. Who's to argue if it works for you.
2) Another way is to take full advantage of the golden opportunities that come a few times in a lifetime. It is maximized when combined with timing; a measure of good luck and the absence of stupid mistakes. This method can benefit from gathering information; consulting with a wide selection of your peers and considering all ideas including those you obviously will disagree with. Above all; avoid the avoidable really stupid mistakes that will set you back past square one.
3) Do exactly the opposite of what the current government may be encouraging. For some reason this turns out to be good advice most of the time.
4) Don't be too greedy; nor to expect to start out with everything you might wish for at retirement. Debt is costly and should carry with it both the chance to "make a million dollars" and well as the possibility that it ends in bankruptcy. We all hope for the first; but there are certainly no guarantees; and the borrower shouldn't automatically expect the latter can't happen.
5) Gambling vs. risking what you can afford to lose. When the payout is fixed at say 93% of the "ticket price"; how can any sensible person spend their time and money on expecting that it will payoff. This point is self explanatory to the relatively few people who grasp the mathematics. Those persons will understand how it relates to any successful enterprise. The rest of you are lost (or desperate). Perhaps this is the most important point in my comments; but I'm not completely naive.
6) All the other plans that have a reasonable chance of success. It may be partnering with others who seem to have specific skills; not taking wild risks that attempt to reinvent something already proven to work etc.
Lets have some more ideas.

[vagabonddreamer]

interesting take on things oneoff....thank you....i take it then that you feel we are on the cusp of a new era (not necessarily improved either) in agriculture??? i wonder if many market forces are going to intersect and culminate in drastic and sweeping reform...and that aggri-economic models need to be re-assessed...

not to cause a furror...but in truth it may be a time to re-visit the entire purpose of psuedo government organizations like CWB and CCA and determine their actual viability to function given the changing global economic landscape..

i am thinking specifically that the influence of emerging asian/middle eastern countries are throwing a bigger spanner into the gears than we are used to seeing...and though i admire people like Fransicso for their steadfast support of true free market economy...i wonder if true free market as defined in north america can function given the differences in socio-business ethics worldwide...we grow too much grain for domestic use (same as cattle)...so we are export dependant...and as we have seen...if other countries slam doors in our faces...the process involved in getting those doors opened again...probably exceeds the remaining life span of the average farmer or rancher...and what do they do in the meantime??? i dont think the CWB is big enough to take on the multi-nationals never mind CHINA!!!

sometimes...it feels like the hog situation you reference...is one of "the last guy with the deepest pockets" will make a jillion and he WILL be the one to turn out the lights as the last one leaving the room...vs

[oneoff]

We're headed for 9 Billion human critters on this earth. Sure as heck we'll keep trending for more. BUT the Earth can't sustain those numbers and there will be some natural regulator (maybe related to human over expansion) to bring back a proper balance. That won't be a pretty time to be around; and the swing could be well past what could be a sustainable number.
Too bad everyone doesn't recognize and do something about this imminent major problem. BUT we won't do anything meaningful. Imagine trying to get the point across by saying "If you had one less ofspring; you would contribute more to being environmentally friendly; than all the "green" initiatives you will actually put in place for your entire life"

There's a trend in the evening news stories. Softwood lumber; inflation; cheap offshore labor for manufacturing; protectionism; nationalism; stock market collapse; Canadian beef and pork export bans; flax export market collapse; general grain collapse; blackleg in this; salmonella in that; COOL; RCALF; unfair CWB claims and on and on. Our leaders can't get many of them settled and off the plate in a timely manner; and the accumulation of unsettled matters has a damaging and long term effect on world trade. Probably its mainly because the controllers of trade; are protecting themselves from the parts of free trade that they see as harmful to themselves (at least in the immediate term).
My first and second points above are related. How they play out remains to be seen; but I remain "powerless" in the big picture that controlls our destinies.
The small picture (where most of us dwell) isn't of much direct interest to the big picture.