Agriculture and Agrifood Canada Numbers?

[rain]

Charlie can you tell me who Agriculture and Agrifood Canada is an how are there numbers different than Stats Can and the CWB. All three can have different production numbers. what government group are they?

Thanks

Rain

[charliep]

The numbers are at the following sites.

Agriculture Canada - http://www.agr.ca/policy/winn/biweekly/English/gosd/2001/oct2001e.htm#sd

Statistics Canada - http://www.statcan.ca/english/Pgdb/Economy/Primary/prim11b.htm

When I look at the numbers, Ag. Canada is the same as the Stats Can.

CWB - the cwb site is www.cwb.ca but I couldn't find recent production estimates. It wouldn't surprise they are different however as the weather department works through a different process. The Nov./Dec. estimate is normally the time these estimates will come together.

Rain - are you comfortable with the current forecasts? Are there numbers the trade has a different opinion about? Comments on where crop production is located?

[rain]

Some line companies and feedlots where already working with a sub 2 MMT barley carryout. One company has been using 1.8MMT for the last two months. Two major flies in the barley situation are corn and CPSR wheat. It is easier to buy 1000 tonne of wheat than a 1000 tonne of barley and you can get it 5.00 under the barley. I have gotten my client 50% sold all feed wheat and feed barley. I think we have factored in low supplies now demand needs to drive us the next leg. Wheat and corn will slow the if not stop a run in the barley price.

We will hold the rest of the crop till spring and play somemore then.

[charliep]

Rain

I am also working with a sub 2 MMT feed barley carryover. This is based on 9.5 MMT of feed barley consumption (versus last years consumption of close to 10.5 MMT - hence the reason why Alberta needs to import close to 1 MMT of US corn). I am nervous about my assumptions though given a good friend of mine assumptions that the 2.5 to 3 MMT of the past two years is likely a more realistic target carryover/minimum needs - particularly if soil moisture conditions don't improve. That drops domestic feed barley availability to closer to 9 MMT. End result is very tight feed supplies and the need to include other ingrediants including US corn.

Others comments/thoughts on implications.

[rain]

that is why I asked you what was the possible CPS acres this year. the extremely short barley situation has feed values in Western Canada making HRSW growers question delivering to the CWB. We are half sold at very good levels. $3.95 to $4.13 wheat, and barley from $3.30 to $3.54. We will hold thre rest till spring. My worry is that corn and wheat will displace even more barley. also producers are much more willing to sell wheat than barley right now. As I have been telling producers we are not short barley yet. We are only short barley sellers. There is lots of wheat and corn sellers right now though.

[charliep]

I agree with what you say. The function of high prices is to ration demand (send more animals south) and price in other feed ingredients (CPS wheat, feed peas and US corn). A caution is this demand is likely to be front end loaded with many animals being put on feed early. Farm managers could face a demand vaccuum this spring/summer. Weather is the major wild card.

A question that is puzzling me is why CPS wheat is selling at a discount to feed barley/relatively more available?

[rain]

Look at this years PRO, and my experience the last 3 years feed wheat has been hard pressed to pull a premium to barley. On a per Tonne basis you can buy corn then wheat and lastly barley today.

Producers appear to want the money up front instead of waiting a year this February to get there money. Which looks to be a lot less then cash.

[melvill]

Charlie, a couple of answers as to why feed wheat selling discount to barley (this from two feedlots who refuse to feed wheat):

1) more younger, lower weight cattle going on feed and wheat is considered, correctly or incorrectly, too hot (or less foregiving) for these types of animals, and
2) feedlot nutritionist types say that an animal switched to wheat or started on wheat it has intake and digestive health problems if switched to something else so continuity of wheat supply is an issue. Some feedlots have been burned with unavailable wheat in the past.

[cowman]

I am no expert on this subject and am commenting only on what I see locally. CPS wheat did pretty well in this dry area compared to barley(in most cases outyielding barley). A lot of barley went into the silage pit. Many cow herds are going to be eating a lot of straw this winter and wheat works good with straw. Maybe better than barley for mature cattle. I see a lot more CPS wheat being grown around here next year as it was a crop that actually paid this year.

[rain]

cowman where are you situated. East of Calgary, barley out produced CPSR hand down. I am assuming you are from a somewhat wetter region ten us. Back to wheat 10% of the feedlot ration could go the wheat with very little problem other than bins

[cowman]

rain; Sorry I took so long to respond but I was having some trouble with my computer. I would say I am in a wetter area than east of Calgary...only in the sense that we had some subsoil moisture...not that we got a lot more rain! Red Deer south. North of us just a few miles they got enough rain. That's just how it was this year!
The CPS wheat went about 80 bu. this year while most barley was in that 60-70 range. One exception was Thompson barley which did very well(in the 90 bu. range). The two rows did a lot better than the six rows.

[rain]

I have heard some good things about Thompson Barley, how would you compare it to Dolly and Bridge in you area.

[cowman]

We grew some Dolly and it was fairly decent. It looked like a really good crop and though it was heavy it just didn't yield like the Thompson.