Pay attentition to the rally in US futures markets

[charliep]

I will highlight that the markets are rallying quite nicely. A reason to be optimistic.

I know there are other things but the major driver is weather and delayed harvest. Some of you are feeling the impact of this in Canada. Having said that, understand that the weather premium can disappear with a break that allows good harvest progress. The yield side is there in the US with supplies large when the crop hits the bin.

Make sure you have marketing discipline in here with price targets and actions on crop in the bin. Things like the China issue may change your marketing plan - delay canola sales to allow the current storm to blow over. That likely means prioritizing other crops for early sales to fill in cash flow gaps. A case in point is the CWB producer pricing options with a deadline October 30. Basis levels are better. FPC values are closer to the PRO. A reason to warm up a pencil and calculator to evaluate.

Have a marketing plan, key decision points in terms of price/timing and finally discipline to act.

What are others thoughts in your marketing plan to the end 2009?

[charliep]

Market strategy is too boring so I am going to up the ante.

Do you buy or sell US November/December futures today? $4/bu CBT corn? $10/bu CBT soybeans? 39 cent CBT beanoil? $6/bu March contract MGE wheat (using march so I can get a round number)?

Your time horizon for pulling out profits (or enduring pain) is a month.

[A990]

Its so hard to call these markets but i'll take a shot.It depends on if you think we're having a weather rally helped out by the dollar or an inflation rally helped out by the weather. Probably the former so I'll say lower on everything if time frame is one month.