No China No Crop!

[SASKFARMER3]

Funny how things work china the mafia of the the new world. Comes up with Zero tolerance of Black Leg in Seed. ARE THEY FRICKING REPLANTING THE SHIT>
They will be out of the market. Yea watch when we drop to $6.00 where they will be.
Its a god dam game just like every thing in the modern day farming a fricking game of cat and mouse and can you guess which one you are.
But the Billion dollar question for Canola is their will be 2 million tons or more unharvested in Western Canada. Folks that's almost to a tee what china use to buy from us. Ha isn't it amazing even Mother Nature is rooting for the buyers. Reality November is around the corner and today's forecast calls for cooler and two nice one ugly two nice one ugly. Better than October with 6 ugly 1 nice but dammit its November.
Good luck one and all but by next friday if it doesnt turn around were putting equipment away and giving up. Way to much to do, way to much.

[charliep]

Before anyone gets too excited about China in the short term, I would encourage everyone to look at the demand side in the coming year. Yes it is a short term hickey for off the combine movement but through the remainder of the crop year will work itself out.

From a source, China movement to Nov. 15 will be about 900,000 tonnes. Domestic crush with the two new plants (Yorkton and Quebec) - 5 MMT. Japan - 2 MMT. North America (Mexico and US) - 2 MMT. Nothing for Dubai/other non traditional. My math tells me that a 10 MMT crop is able to be sold easily. 9 MMT and rationing of supplies has to occur. 11 MMT (long shot to say the least) and China is important.

US soybeans have the promise of big but are behind schedule in harvest. US is the only major supply of soybeans till spring (new crop Southern Hemisphere).

My guess is canola in the $9 to $10/bu range over the winter. If you want to get more bullish, then you have to be calling for CBT beanoil futures well over 40 cents/lb.

[malleefarmer]

australia has a large crop coming off as we speak
not sure how much we produce charlie you or sask probably do

been nothing under 30 celcius for last 7 days 35 tommorow has hurt crops right at finishing stages of maturity but shouldnt be too bad

you guys would be glad to half that temp

[charliep]

Australia normally produces about 1.7 MMT.

Got the number off the USDA production supply demand database.

[URL="://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx"]USDA PSD database[/URL]

[charliep]

Will try backing off one page and see if it works. Do the custom query.

[URL="http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx"]psd database[/URL]