Salesmen and boys

[cityguy]

Fran's right on the numbers. was just looking at the farm stocks as what the CWB left behind this past summer. they left behind 735,000 of the 5.5 crop. Just wanted to point out that they didn't leave behind half the crop.the other 1.2 carried over was in the commercial system so no idea how much of that was sold but given the late crop development have to figure that a couple of months of exports/crush was already sold. Given where prices are right now, should the CWB look to increase or decrease the carry out, and by how much?

[Fransisco]

Funny, how we broke all of the canola records in the same time frame without the price collapsing.

Selling all of the durum would have cost what, maybe a nickel or a dime at the time? It might not have cost anything, the world was hungry for all kinds of wheat. Remember the $20 bids. Waiting cost a minimum $4 a bushel on the stuff you can move this year and a whole lot more on the stuff you're going to be holding for two or more years.

Yes, it's a rookie mistake.

When the prices are at record levels you take the price, you don't sit back and wait for the rest of the world to grow more of it, which you know they're going to do because of the record prices.

The wheat board can not control the price of durum, it has never had that ability. It is more obvious now than ever before with this disaster. They are a price taker who doesn't know when to take a good price.

You don't need a legislated monopoly to hold on to your grain through the good prices till they turn into lousy ones. You're perfectly capable of doing that yourself if that's what you want to do. I don't, and I shouldn't be forced to join you in your marketing delusions.

[bucket]

The cwb has to start looking forward and telling farmers they only need 3mmt of durum grown next year. Then go tell the buyers they better get in to buy or there will be no durum or the price will be quite a bit higher. Sales strategy that works for fertilizer.

I also find it interesting that grainco can find a home for durum but the cwb can't. With the graincos in the market for off board durum will that not have an effect on what the board markets.

[Fransisco]

"Given where prices are right now, should the CWB look to increase or decrease the carry out, and by how much?"

Given that after 70 years the Board still doesn't know what its doing, and will invariably get it wrong again, it should be giving farmers no buyback export licenses so they can take care of things themselves.

[cityguy]

Big price year was 07/08 when there was only 50,000 left on farm at the end of the year, not last summer. In fact, fair to say that the durum market basically took off and divorced itself from even the wheat market starting in May 07 when the Italian crop got drenched, and then in June when the Syrians bailed on their sales commitements. Market went straight up all through the balance of '07, destroying a lot of "normal" demand along the way and by Jan '08 peaked and then slid. It's still trying to buy back some of that demand. If everyone were to be given a free pass at today's US prices, do you think the bins would be emptied? No question that Canada has to cut acres by at least 1 million, if not 2 million this spring. What signals other than what we have right now does the board need to send to get that job done?

[farmboy4]

"Selling all of the durum would have cost what, maybe a nickel or a dime at the time?"

That's seems like a reasonable guess. I'm sure some buyer or Accredited Exporter called up the CWB and offered to purchase a couple million tonnes at a dime below the CWB asking price and they said no.

"When the prices are at record levels you take the price, you don't sit back and wait for the rest of the world to grow more of it, which you know they're going to do because of the record prices."

Now I know I'm not as smart as you, so can you help me out by answering a question for me? In you world are durum buyer's complete morons?

When the prices are at record levels you DON'T take the price, you sit back BUY HAND TO MOUTH and wait for the rest of the world to grow more of it, which you know they're going to do because of the record prices.

[Fransisco]

"In you world are durum buyer's complete morons?"

No, the folks selling our wheat on our behalf better fit that description. They're the ones who let the big one get away. The big one that was created by the durum buyers actually competing with each other and bidding up the price of durum instead buying as little as possible once, as you suggest, prices started to be higher than normal.

There's theory and there's reality, your's and the wheat boards theory doesn't match up with reality.

I don't pretend to know it all like the folks at 423 mainstreet and their apologists.

But I do know this.

Farmers when left to themselves do a much better job of marketing their own grain than government bureaucrats under the delusion that they can somehow control the market.

[Fransisco]

"What signals other than what we have right now does the board need to send to get that job done?"

The signal that it is finally getting out of the way. That it's not going to forcibly insert itself between buyers and sellers anymore. That it will deal with them on a voluntary basis.

If it does this the job will get done. If it doesn't it won't.

[Fransisco]

BTW- Ending stocks at the end of 07/08 were 819,000 tonnes not 50,000.

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sdd5326

[jensend]

it seems to me that the end of july the consensus on this board was that the crop was in big trouble and quality and quantity were in doubt.