Why is Canola in the Tank!

[SASKFARMER3]

What is the real reason we are the slow sister to soy. It seems funny to me how our Cinderella crop has now become the ugly step sister. You invite her to the party but she goes home alone. The real reason the Chinese are so pissed off at Canada. Any one have a guess. USA is sending boat loads of Soy to china yet were shut out. And it ain't because of some disease. Soy is gaining ground every year costs are less yet were growing canola and giving the shit away. Crusher bids are in the tank. Yet soy keeps chugging away. Weekly sales are up every single week, Yes their in tight position till SA crop comes off but it canola is so great and we no its cheap compared to soy, wouldn't it be a bargain.
So who is lying to the farmer, Canadian Canola Association, Govt of Canada, Who.
As farmers were told we need so many extra acres to feed the giant demand that's their, I say BLA BLA BLA.
Something is creating this monster that took a once very profitable crop and left farmers with another dud.
Off to Ohio for trailer should be a fun trip.

[ajl]

One of the reasons is that China doesn't need us. We will buy from them wether or not they import anything from Canada or not. Witness the 9% import tarriff they have on imported canola seed. They have to buy from the US because if they don't the US goes under and the pile of US cash they are sitting on becomes worthless. Therefore preferential treatment of things that the US can sell ie soy.

[furrowtickler]

Canola has held it's own and actually been steadly rising from the early harvest lows. May not be on pace with soy but there are reasons - as stated many times - a huge amount of canola was and is still being pushed into the market due to moisture concerns. $9-$10 dollar canola was/is still out there - not bad considering the supply push from the farmer and a $.95 lonnie?

[tipsy]

sf3 It seems like the last number of year's the world only needs about8.5-10 mmt's of the stuff and any production over that is pricing pressure.

[bgmb]

Is there something wrong with 40 bu/ac at $9 /bu

[bgmb]

should have read over 40 bu at over 9 bucks

[Zaphod]

Since when is $9.50 "in the tank"? You need a longer memory SF3. If that's not profitable, you shouldn't be farming. Not everything is a conspiracy. Maybe it has something to do with growing almost 12 million tonnes of canola. The market goes up and down all by itself. But I repeat, $9.50 is a very bankable number.

[furrowtickler]

All the numbers I run put Canola still 2-3 times the net over any cereals. Canola can be priced at over $9/bus for next Oct. not a bad starting point considering 30-40% reduction in fert costs.