% sold

[threefox]

A quick survey what % are you sold in your crops (canola, peas, wheat, barley, etc.) And how much % sold do you think the CWB should be sold on old crop 09 and new crop 10 wheat and barley for Dec 31.

[mbratrud]

C 100%, P 25%, W 20% FPC, B 100% CP

[bucket]

Interesting question. Don't know the relevance cwb to off board because you typically sell off board crops if the cwb is way behind which they usually are.

The cwb is supposed to be marketing grain for the premium(that's their mantra) so for the cwb to be at a percentage sold isn't as important as getting that imaginary premium. It would not of hurt the board to delay sales of this years high quality grain. Thinking here of the saudi giveaway. Seeing as how they thought it wise to carry lower quality into this year.

The cwb is now at 40% durum and 50% wheat. It think they have given more than enough away already.

[furrowtickler]

Canola - 40%
Wht - 25%
G. Peas - 25%
Canary - 0

[charliep]

As an interesting note, the markets function is to provide signals that encourage a steady flow of product through out the year at a pace that meets customers needs. It also has to be a a pace that uses western Canada's finite terminal, rail and elevator system capacity.

Picking on wheat, you have a customer like Japan take takes about 75,000 tonnes every month - load a 25,000 tonne boat 3 out of 4 weeks on month to meet the needs of a just in time shipping system with minimal storage in Japan. You have Vancouver/Prince Rupert that can load out about 1.5 mln tonnes every month - 1 mln tonne or there about wheat. You have a logistics system to get it there. You have a farmers with the ability to store but also their own needs for cash flow/profit objectives/market opinion.

The way all this works is an interesting combination of market information flow, contracts and logistic capacity utilization.

Off the topic of the % sold but ultimately the need of the market.

[furrowtickler]

It has been impossible to ship hrsw even up to the 50% level. Elevators still dealing with tough canola, barley contracts and yellow peas at some locations. We have dry hrsw in a pile but no home, frusterating but expected givin the fall.

[food4u]

High protein is moving slowly in our area but NOT one kernel of low protein wheat. Why have a call and no shipping orders to match? Same old CWB nonsense..So concerned the open market is moving product that we better have a call but no shipping orders to match same.No terminal can afford to have space tied up with grain that does not move until goodness knows when...

[checking]

Is the US wheat export marketing system as orderly as the Canadian?

[bucket]

checking

It is probably more orderly which is why they are kicking the cwb asses in the movement of durum. I think they also have more commercial storage which buffers them a bit better during a cold snap or sale obligations. More to draw from the terminal makes the system work better than this just in time bullshit.

[cityguy]

bucket makes an important point about commercial storage. In a state like Kansas the storage space can take in 80% of a crop. In ND,MN,IA,IL they can probably take in 50% of the crop. In western Canada the primary elevators can take in less than 15% of a crop. Also - the US has a thing called "price" that regulates the flow of grain in and out of the system. Countering some of that, the main wheat export is #2 HRW 11.5/ord protein, #2 yellow corn , #2 yellow beans,#2 SRW versus the Canadian system that is trying to push umpteen types of grain/oilseeds and a bazzillion types of wheats. As for orderly on durum, how is a crop that gets a free high priced put in the form of the LDP, which has paid out close to $100 million this year or an average of about $1.20/bushel on every bushel grown in North Dakota this year as well as pretty much every bushel grown in Montana be called orderly. It's called "dumping". All in all, this years US total wheat exports could very well be the lowest in at least 20 years. Put it all together though and you can't argue that quick efficient price signals are the best way to make a market "orderly" and that's what the US system has (though it does get bastardized by LDP payments)

[checking]

Thank you bucket and cityguy.

Sure would love to sell off that CWB lazyboy with a single desk at a garage sale! If you look downunder it, maybe it landed on Ian.

That would be a happy White X-mas.

[Choice2U]

Cityguy.....In one sentence you refer to the LDP as dumping and then the next sentence you follow with this year could be the US's worst export year in 20 years.....if a country is dumping their production, how can they be so far behind in their exports?

[Hopperbin]

I only have a million and a half dollars worth of my own grain to sell. Why should I need to care what the CWB is supposed to be doing? In fact no farmer has any control of what the CWB is doing with our grain. After the end of the year I would expect them to have done the right thing throughout the year to market my grain. They have one hell of a lot more of farmers grain on the line than I have of my own grain on the line. So I would expect them to get me the best possible price by some orderly or risky what ever they need to do marketing. All said I am not selling to the board any grain the last couple years.

[cityguy]

to clarify for Choice 2U - Total US wheat exports are projected to be 875 million bu's this year of which 50 million are durum. Last year the US exported 1.015 billion bu's of which 24 million was durum. So overall wheat exports are expected to be down but inside that total wheat number the durum exports are expected to double. The smallest total wheat export program in the past 20 years was 856 million in 02/03 (drought year). However, year to date sales of wheat are behind the pace in 02/03 so there is the very real possibility that the US could end the year behind the 02/03 year in exports. For the sake of argument can presume that the CWB shoulda woulda coulda been more agressive on durum sales, but I find it amazing that the US governement has spent close to $100 million on LDP cheques for durum (80 million bushels X $1.20/bu) and no one up here blinks an eye. Does anyone seriously think that the USDA would be expecting durum exports to double year over year if the governemnt hadn't been handing out $1.20/bu cheques every time you took a durum load to town. No question that the CWB can distort the markets - both on the export side (Saudi puke) but clearly at the farm gate. But the LDP's take away cure for low prices, namely low prices, and in the case of durum this year are just as distorting.