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12.00 canola

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    12.00 canola

    Palm oil jumped 2.6 percent to the highest in more
    than seven months for the best annual performance
    in 12 years on anticipation demand will increase
    from India, the second-biggest consumer. Palm oil,
    which has more than doubled in the last decade,
    has rallied 57 percent this year on rising demand
    from India and China, the biggest user. Tight
    supplies of soybean oil earlier this year due to
    drought damage in South America have also fueled
    price gains. “Demand is expected to be quite
    strong, especially from India, now that the soybean
    harvesting is done and yields are not improving,”
    Ben Santoso, an analyst at DBS Vickers Securities
    (Singapore) Pte., said by phone from Singa- pore.
    “On top of that, Chinese demand is still quite
    strong.” (BLOOMBERG)

    #2
    I hope you are right and S/F is wrong. My guess is somewhere in the middle - pretty safe eh? I think we will float between $8 and $9 after the tough canola has been pushed through the system. They will have to buy the remaining 40%, it will not be given to them - providing they need it by then.

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      #3
      For any of you that care, i've heard bunge's delivery schedule in nipawin is booked(full) for delivery of canola until sometime towards the end of march. When I heard this I was rather amused,why, becaused their basis is ridiculous.

      Comment


        #4
        For any of you that care, i've heard bunge's delivery schedule in nipawin is booked(full) for delivery of canola until sometime towards the end of march. When I heard this I was rather amused,why, becaused their basis is ridiculous. But why lower it, appears that $8.25-8.50 will attract all canola they need for the next 100 days or so.

        Comment


          #5
          Unprecedented levels of Chinese imports, new
          investor cash, improving economic data and a
          weaker dollar have combined to more than double
          LME copper prices this year from the 2008 closing
          level of $3,090.

          On the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex
          metals division, benchmark copper for March
          settled up 0.15 cent at $3.3465 per pound. The
          session high was $3.3790 – a peak not seen since
          Aug. 21, 2008.

          Analysts said they expected the current investment
          momentum in copper to hold at least through early
          2010.

          “Next year we'll probably see between $8,000 and
          $10,000 in copper,” Herwig Schmidt, head of sales
          at Triland Metals, said of LME prices.

          “It's not that I'm bullish on industrial demand, [it's]
          more the chase for useful assets and anticipation
          on inflation. You cannot help but be in
          commodities,” Mr. Schmidt added.

          Comment


            #6
            Farm commodities 'better bet than gold' for 2010
            Agricultural commodities represent a more
            attractive home for money than bonds, or even
            gold, for 2010 as "quality" overtakes "recovery" as
            the central investment theme, UBS has said.

            The bank has raised to "overweight" from "market-
            weight" its rating on farm commodities, saying they
            are poised to play "catch up" with assets such as
            industrial metals, which have enjoyed particularly
            strong performances in 2009.

            With the world economy growing by 3.6% next year,
            a "subdued rate by comparison to past recoveries",
            investor attention will switch from the so-called
            cyclical assets viewed as the first line of
            beneficiaries from the emergence from recession.

            Feel the quality

            "Quality will matter more in 2010 relative to 2009,
            when cyclical strategies did better," UBS said.

            "The performance of cyclical commodity prices
            should become more subdued in 2010.

            "Much good news is already in the price and indeed
            oil and copper prices are now above our estimates
            of fair value.

            "A rotation into agricultural commodities is
            warranted."

            Gold slowdown

            UBS applied its upgrade to both crop and livestock
            contracts, although, at 1.25% apiece, they still
            represent a small part of the bank's ideal portfolio,
            with equities taking the lion's share, at 55%.

            Nonetheless, the allocations were more than the
            1.0% recommended for gold, which looked
            "unlikely" to repeat its strong performance of 2009,
            when it has hit successive record highs.

            "To be sure, policy and economic uncertainty
            remains elevated, but it is difficult to believe that
            those factors alone can support recent gold price
            gains," the bank said.

            Comment

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