Deadline for CWB "A" Series Contracts

[charliep]

Just a note to make sure everyone is aware that Wed. Oct. 31 is the dealine for the CWB "A" series contract. How much will you be contracting? What strategies should people be using?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I am having a hard time with this...

Is the last PRO raising CWES/CPS a ploy to get more of this wheat?

As you have correctly stated in the other topic a person would be a fool to use PPO priced CWES CPS wheat and apply it to presently priced 2001-02 PPO contracts.

Maybe a person should just sit tight and speculate, otherwise if a series A is signed I cannot deliver into 2002-03 which is bound to be higher than the PRO is indicating now!!

I think the CWB is REALLY REALLY REALLY short of CPS, what is your thought?

[crusher]

If the board needed some CPS perhaps they should raise the initial!!

[charliep]

The increases in CPS/extra strong reflect the tightening of spreads between mid quality wheat and higher end spring (bread wheat).

I run through the list of customers who buy CPS wheat specifically (particularly red) and it is short (API and middle east countries like Iran). The export side mainly buys specification wheat (mainly 3CWRS quality wheats or lower protein 2CWRS). Not a lot of this type of wheat around this year. My own thoughts are the domestic feed market will remain the best market for CPS red.

Same comments for extra strong with the comment that I don't know how high gluten strength wheat fits into flat bread type markets.

The market I find interesting is the prairie spring white wheat market. Target markets for this wheat include Pakistan/middle east plus others (countries that want nice white noodles and flour). Tight US soft red winter wheat/problems getting the crop seeded because of wet weather may also create opportunities. Longer term, this where the best opportunities are in the export market.

The theory is the PRO forecasts should reflect the true price in the market/price relationships between the different classes of wheat. Do you feel you are getting true market signals that assist in your decision about which wheat to grow?