2009 Durum Acceptance

[gustgd]

Over a couple glasses of Wisers Deluxe I had a discussion with a CWB loving freind from the local Hutterite Colony.
We ended up making a bet on Durum accepance levels. He thinks they will get to 80% acceptance, I think 60% (really I think 50% but I built in a 10% cushion)
Stakes are a 40oz of Wisers, if its somewhere in the middle we both buy.

What are others predictions?

[bucket]

The thing about your cwb loving friends is that they forget that 25% of any call the cwb makes is 08 crop. So if the cwb calls 80% - that is still only 55% of the new crop. Sounds like you will be splitting that whiskey.

Unless they are doing the normal thing and overcontracting. Your friend has a special relationship with the cwb as they are the future. Big farms with no labour costs. Dwain Lingenfelter, when he was ag minister, use to visit hutterite colonies to get ideas on ag policy. No kidding.

[cityguy]

figure there was 750,000 tonnes on farm at July 31 plus 5.4 million production. also have to figure that there will be between 750,000 or maybe 1 million that will be used for seed/feed and some will make it's way into the ethanol plants. The CWB will probably export 3.75 million and sell another 250 to the domestic flour mills for a total CWB demand of 4 million. Of the total farm "control" (for lack of a better term) of 6.15 million about 5.15 should be offered to the CWB of which they'll take 4 million - so whatever percent that is should be about what the accept, no? Guess the next question is what is a realistic expectation for durum acreage reduction this coming spring - 25%?

[bucket]

I think I will seed more durum than last year. The cwb has no idea what the durum stocks are. On paper maybe, in reality not a clue. They can't even hazard a guess as to what has been sold off board. They get caught short sometime in june/july and durum will be back at a premium for 10/11. Alot of guys grew durum this year thinking ( and rightly so according to the pro's) that durum was going to be a money maker. Why do you think chairman hill isn't selling any durum this year.

[Hopperbin]

I am not a durum grower but why in hell would anyone over contract on the A this year when durum is under HRSW and close to feed price. That has carry over written all over it and you Durum growers know it. CFIP payments big time. Next year, huge durum from carryover. Purhaps take a fixed price on the carryover if you can get one from the morons.

[bucket]

Good point hopper. But here is a question following your logic.

Why is the cwb going sell more wheat than the 10 year average at bargain basement prices as they announced yesterday? High quality wheat being dumped into a feed market - what can one say.

I have neighbors who are making more on ethanol wheat than I am with food quality wheat. And the board finally decides to flood high quality grain into a low priced market.