CWB and cash flow

[furrowtickler]

The cwb's benchmarks. Butt prints in their chairs from doing sfa!

[Zaphod]

Just so you don't have to do the math, here it is. The first column is the CWB final payment (PRO for 09/10). The second column is the marketing year average (a true weighted average) for all grades (good, bad and ugly) of durum in North Dakota converted to Cdn $. The last column is the difference. It shows that when prices are rallying sharply (in 2001 due to Sask drought and 07/08 when the mkt went crazy) the CWB gets better returns simply because they sell about the same amount every month, but that's not due to smarter marketing. Take a look at all the other, more normal years. How does the CWB do then? And don't give me the line about the US being a premium market. It's a fact that they export nearly half of their durum into the same markets as Canada does.

How about the last two years? Yoinks! Over the nine years shown, the average disadvantage for the Cdn farmer is $19 per tonne. If exports average 3.5 million tonnes a year, that's $66.5 million every year or nearly $600 million over the last nine years. Class action lawsuit, anyone?

2CWAD 13% ND MYA Difference
01/02 213.06 166.68 -46.38
02/03 221.45 219.82 -1.63
03/04 176.35 193.17 16.82
04/05 155.27 169.12 13.85
05/06 129.98 142.52 12.54
06/07 167.30 189.25 21.95
07/08 452.60 406.73 -45.87
08/09 299.76 443.11 143.35
09/10 149.45 210.25 60.80

[bucket]

stubble
The real mystery about last year is the cwb's PRO on durum.

The marketing people that do such a good job (according to proboard people) came out with pro's that were a premium over spring wheat. The problem was that those PRO's meant nothing - the cwb is not held to those marketing signals when the cheques have to be written. Nor do they have to tell farmers in February how much they will accept in the fall.

The only other job that is comparable is being ---- you guessed it ----

A WEATHERMAN

Never see them held to account either.

[stubblejumper]

bucket it is not their fault if you don't understand PRO's and how they get the numbers.

[charliep]

I always find a picture is worth a thousand words. Check out the graph 12. Current 1CWAD 13 PRO is $214/tonne port.

[URL="http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/pdf/2009-10/2009-10fpcbpccharts.pdf"]durum chart 2009/10[/URL]

[furrowtickler]

stubble the cwb does not even understand their own pro's, it is like throwing a dart at a dart board.