5 year cropping model

[Jagfarms]

I made a 5 year crop model for 1/2 and 1/2, 1/3
2/3 and continuous cropping. I used the prices
based on a 5 year average and I used the crop
insurance yields based on a 5 year average from
risk area 10 and soil class e. Their yields were a
little bit lower than what I used they only had a
average yield for durum on sf of 34 bu/acre so I
used a yield of 40. The stubble yields were the
same as I used on durum and canary. They had a
yield of 18 for red lentils and I used an average
yield of 20 bu/acre. The summer follow cost I
figured in spraying 2.5 times including the price of
the sprayer for $10 acre each pass.
The cost of the machinery was factored in as the
custom rate prices.
For 1/3 2/3 and continuous cropping I did a plan if
there was a crop failure on the stubble crops for 2
out of the 5 years as well.





5 year crop Model


4 100 acre fields for a total of 400 acres

½ and ½ durum summer follow
Using an average yield of 40 bu acre for durum and
an average price of $6.90/bu. Input cost of $129
acre for durum and $25 acre for summer follow for
the year does not include taxes rent land payments
depreciation etc.

200 acres durum x $129 acre $25,800
200 acres sf x $25 $5000
Total $30,800
200 acres X 40 bu acre x $6.90 $55,200-
30,800=$24,400

5 years x 24,400=$122,000





1/3 2/3 crop rotation durum on summer follow
followed by red lentils then canary seed then sf.

Durum 100 acres x $129 acre $12,900
Red Lentils 100 acres X $193 acre $19,300
Canary seed 100 acres x $117 acre $11,700
summer follow 100 acres x $25 acre $2,500
Total $46,400

Durum 100 acres x 40bu acres x $6.90bu
$27,600
Red lentils 100acres x20bu acre x$17bu
$34,000
Canary 100 acres x 17bu/acre x $9
$15,300
Total $76900-
46,400=$30,500



$30,500X 5 $152,500

Crop insurance 80% coverage for crop on stubble
|Canary seed on stubble $121 acre
Red lentils on stubble $245

In a drought year if there was no crop on stubble I
will use the crop insurance coverage
Durum 100 acres x 40bu acres x $6.90bu
$27,600
Red lentils 100acres x $245 $24,500
Canary 100 acres x $121 $12,100
Total $64,200
$64,200-$46,400=$17,800

If you had 3 good years and 2 crop failures on
stubble your 5 year average would be.
$30,500X 3 $91,500
$17,800x 2 $35,600
Total $127,100

Still $5100 ahead on 5 year total income over ½ and
½ durum and summer follow.




Continuous cropping more fertilizer on stubble
durum than on summer follow durum
Durum and red lentils
200 acres durum x$140 acre $28,000
200 acres red lentils x$193 acre $38,600
Total $66,600

Durum 200acres x 28bu acre x $6.90bu
$38,640
Red lentils 200 acres x 20bu acre x$17bu
$68,000
Total $106,640-
66,600=$40,040
$40,040 x 5 = $200,200




If there was a crop failure on the stubble crops we
will use the crop insurance at 80% coverage.
Durum $170
Red lentils $245


Durum 200acres x $170 $38,640
Red lentils 200 X $245 $49,000
Total $87,640 -
66,600=$21,040
$40,040 x 3 = $121,120
$21,040 x 2 = $42,080
Total $163,200







Prices are based on a 5 year average from 2005 to
2009 price is per/bu price.

Durum HRSW Canola Red L Green L Canary
Barley Maple Peas
2009 4.50 4.70 8.50 20 18 10
3 8
2008 8.30 6 14 24 21 10
3.55 10
2007 12.50 8.50 9 18 18 12
6 6
2006 5 4.60 6 12 12 5
2.75 5
2005 4.10 4 7 10 10 6
2.75 4
Average 6.90 5.5 9 17 16 9
3.6 6.6











Crop input costs durum on stubble
burn off 9
seeding 15
seed 12
fertilizer 45
inoculant 0
rolling 0
chem app 1 21
chem app 2 0
swathing 0
combining 20
trucking 6
crop ins 10
other
other
other
other
other
other
total 147


Crop input costs red lentils on stubble
burn off 9
seeding 15
seed 18
fertilizer 8
inoculant 12
rolling 5
chem app 1 21
chem app 2 grasshop 10
desicating 20
combining 25
trucking 14
crop ins 27
other
other
other
other
other
other
total 193

Crop input costs canary
burn off 9
seeding 15
seed 6
fertilizer 20
inoculant 0
rolling 0
chem app 1 15
chem app 2 grasshop 0
desicating 0
combining 20
trucking 11
crop ins 12
other
other
other
other
other
other
117

[grrrr]

Looks like you did lots of work but, isn't your 1/3 - 2/3 rotation actually a 1/4 - 3/4 rotation as you have 25% of the acres in smf at any one time or did I miss something?

[Jagfarms]

I did screw up.
It is a 3/4 1/4 rotation instead of 2/3 1/3 rotation.

Thanks for pointing that out.

[ajl]

A couple of questions: Can you get $170 per acre durum coverage for only $10 in Sask and your continueous durum costs were listed at 147 vs 140 used in the model? Here is another rotation to try: Smf, yellow mustard, clearfeild lentils, durum for your 0.25 smf plan.

[Jagfarms]

My coverage from durum last year with sask crop
ins was $170 acre for a $10 acre premium. I Will
have to take another look just to make sure but I
believe it was.

With the input cost for durum I was playing around
with different fertlizer costs on a spreadsheet and I
changed the rate of fert after I made the model.

The original input cost was $140 acre.

[ColevilleH2S]

ajl "Smf, yellow mustard, clearfeild lentils, durum"

Careful with the Odyssey residues from the Clearfield Lentils affecting the Yellow Mustard yields. Three years is the absolute minimum recropping interval for Mustard. One dry year between the two could cause mess that rotation up.

I mention it because I'm trying to fit them both into my rotation too. I'm finding the Clearfield system solves some problems but creates others.

[ajl]

In 2007 we had yellow mustard on a feild of pea stubble that was treated with oddyssey in 06. It was a decent crop. Mind you the spring of 07 was wet. Last summer a neighbor had mustard on land that had Everest the year before. That crop was ugly.

[furrowtickler]

Try Solo on the Lentils? No residual at all.
We have found that any pulse after an oilseed is not that great - lack of nem-todes i think after the oilseed.
We have tried all types of rotations, and are with a short Can - Cer - Pulse. Risky but manageable. Having a cereal more than once in three years just kills profitability overall.
We have tried Can-Cer-Flax-pulse-cer but the pules crops end up 1/2 the crop.