What I got fromCombine to customer program

[silverback]

Fear.

That is all it is ever about.

They are afraid that they may have to stand on their own two feet and make real decisions.

Cowards.

[charliep]

mbratrud

What are the rules and processes around the basis only contract?

Also found the consideration of a durum cashplus contract. Why not all
wheats? Would allow the CWB to put the flexpro contract out of its misery.

Any mention of barley (feed or malt) and new ideas?

[mbratrud]

Charlie,

As for the Basis Pool, its in the the Idea stage. Got the scense from Ian White this is something he is really behind. I think this would be a good option for HRS Wheat.

The reason they are looking at the cash plus for Durum is the fact there is now good hedging mechanism the trading is cash. Step in the right direction I think.

As for Malt Barley I think they just simply want to improve the Cash Plus and expand tonnage. Cash plus is working well so far.

Grain flo is on the table for change, some considerations are attaching price via cash plus to Grain Flo, or putting individual contract tonnage caps in place.

[mbratrud]

Charlie

Basis Pool Contract. Details were scetchy but it would use sales throughout the year like the pool, but the Basis would be the only thing priced. Farmers would be able to pick their futures, and there would be a good possibility futures months would be associated with delivery. Possibly replacing Grain Flo. For example Jan, Feb March would be off the March Future. I think this has possibilties.

[blackpowder]

TOM4CWB et al

It seems you and I would agree everytime regarding the sanctity of property rights. I have helped fund legal chalenges to some Orders in Council gun laws. I generally let people more focused and eloquent like yourself do most of the lifting. I would merely draw your attention to a pivotal leaders' comments on another conflict over certain 'rights' property being among them "a nation divided amongst itself can not stand"
2/3 of this week was spent on other matters. Access to information was unparalleled. For too long I treated 2/3 of my gross sales like cow manure. (fork it to 'em shovel it out). I now have contacts on almost all future questions. There are also future international trips scheduled.

[Raven]

Jag, Mbra, Blackp - I swear you have some form of Stockholm Syndrome. Thank goodness for you it is only your grain that is held captive.

[charliep]

Interesting. One of the areas of concern from the outside is the
increase in the number of programs and the cost of running. The cash
plus is a case in point. Good presentation at the WBGA on the costing
behind and expense allocation with the malt cashplus program.
Average basis program (maybe the wrong terminology) may sound
interesting but at cost/complexity? The goal should be a simple
reflection of real prices on a given day based on actual sales that day.

Sorry for the questions but was there discussion of more/shorter
pooling periods? Shorter pooling periods should reduce risk.

Also discussions about the contingency fund both as needed to back
the current producer payment options and to financially backstop a
CWB without government guarantees?

[Jeff Nielsen]

Hey Jag, Blackpowder and Mbratrud, thanks for your comments on the CIGI course. As I mentioned in a previous thread I have been on it, and feel it is an excellent course in what it shows producers.
On the day at the CWB, it is good that management was frank with you on the challenges and ideas of going forward. Currently the BOD won't go too far especially on pooling, for those who have stanch monopolist directors you best question them why.
There is some fear of the unknown going forward, yet where the CWB has failed somewhat in my opinion is not being as prepared as they could have. We have known since the Liberals gave away the financial guarantees back in 2004, that we needed to be seeking a replacement.The CWB should have a plan ready to work when and if the Doha round is finished.
The CWB has challenges yes, it is the producers who must see value in the CWB, your thoughts ideas and suggestions are key to this.
Jeff Nielsen

[mbratrud]

Charlie,

I agree this has been one of my beefs about all these programs, is the complexity and expense. Producers have enough trouble staying on top of non board contracts and now they have to learn a bunch of complicated board programs. Ultimately the ideal end result of all these programs would be a pricing system similar to the open Market where you have to sign up for the pool. Still some time before we see that.

Financing is definitely a concern for an organization with little assets; they anticipate interest costs to rise by 1.5% to 2% were the numbers I saw. And obviously they would have to evolve into a more just in time delivery organization, like the rest of the industry. They will not be able to afford to sit on huge inventories of grain like they do today.

[TOM4CWB]

mbratrud,

You say the CWB will not be able to afford to sit on huge inventories of grain... the risk and money lost is massive... being forced inventory holders for millers and grain co's globally.

Further:

The distortions created in 2008 from this stupid arrogance the CWB perpetrated on western Canadian 'designated area' grain growers must be spelled out and articulated clearly!

$25/bu MGE trades would have NEVER occured... without the CWB in place holding 'designated area' wheat OFF the market.

If MGE had never got over $12/bu... and Durum not over $15/bu:

We would likely not have had the huge build up in stocks we now have in wheat and durum.

Holding back stocks and distorting the markets globally is fool hardy stupidity... and suicidal for the folks left holding the inventory!

THAT is US... 'designated area' grain growers!

How could we be so stupid... to allow this to happen in 1995/96... and then all over again in 2007/08?

We are sure slow learners!

Anyone who says 4mmt in our bins in 08 was sold out... should have to pay the $500/t lost on that 4mmt!

Plus now the extra $100/t lost on crop after crop to the excess production $1000/t wheat produced over the next ten years that the single desk caused!

[TOM4CWB]

$500 time 4mmt... is only $2b.

100% profit... every cent.

But... since the aim of every farmer... is to never pay one cent of income tax... the CWB is the deam machine!

If you don't have the money... the taxes need not be paid!

The biggest destabiliser in net farm income in Canada... is clearly the CWB.

The first to drop grain prices... the last to raise them... and inventory holders for customers through the peak at no cost to these customers.

And the competitive nature of grain growing... means our other grains grown are too cheap BECAUSE wheat and barley are the baseline crops all others are rooted in.

Now... before you say I don't have a clue... ask how much you can sell the CWB feed wheat or barley for today... and take home!

Can you get $20/t for your barley?

How much for your feed wheat cash from the CWB?

What about the 60% of durum left in 'designated area' grain growers... that should have been money in the bank from 2008 CWB inventory games?

THINK about it!

[bucket]

Jeff

Any changes coming on durum for the next year or is the cwb going to continue its marketing practices for durum?

As far as government guarantees go I fail to see the risk. The cwb is not paying us for our grain. The cwb uses farmers to finance the rest of the world. The government has never in the last ten years been on the hook for any money.

And considering that the feds just gave money to the auto sector for free, I fail to understand why, if the cwb did ever overpay us for the shitty job they do, the feds could not backfill the loss.

Look, there is no interim payment coming anytime soon so its pretty obvious someone got a hell of a deal on the 09 crop.