What Should the CWB do with Supply Glut of Durum in 2010

[shaney]

The durum market is very ugly for Western Canadian farmers heading into spring. There is an abundance of supply in storage and there is a threat of the supply getting larger this Canadian growing season if acres are not reduced or old crop doesn’t get marketed.

Durum traditionally has been a crop that has paid great dividends to farmers for sticking with it through some hard times. As John DePutter says in the video below, low prices cure low prices. Talking to many seed retailers in Western Canada, the sales of durum seed have been very slow and the interest in the crop has wavered.

What concerns me personally is the mentality that many farmers have in regards to durum. I have heard many times this winter, “I’m going to plant durum because nobody else will.” That maybe an okay plan but I have heard that so many times since December that I am worried how many acres are actually going to be planted.

See CWB market analyst, Bruce Burnett talk about the durum market back in January at CropWeek in Saskatoon.

I am not a market analyst so I have no idea how the CWB is going to get rid of this supply based on the global production that is at hand. I thought it would best if I talked to an expert on the issue.

I talked to John DePutter from DePutter Publishing about what he thinks the Canadian Wheat Board should do to fix the supply glut on Canadian farms. John has a great depth of knowledge regarding the marketing of grain and is a highly respected market analyst in Canada.

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[TOM4CWB]

Save it for next year... they can't lose cause it doesn't cost anything to carry it!

At over $50/t discount to CWRS... why would you plant it?

[stubblejumper]

local cleaning plant has cleaned nouthing but durum.

[railway]

give us export permits and let us market it ourselves. I can't afford to carry half my durum production, and still give 2010 crop what it needs.

[bucket]

1. Look at a producers previous three years production and issue a 60% call before he puts it in the ground. Then he won't grow the other 40%.

2. Start using fertilizer dealer sales tactics. "...when its this low you can afford to buy the bin...".

3. Maybe the cwb could develop some different marketing skills for durum. Doing the same thing has not proven to be effective.


All this has been hashed out in others threads. Unfortunately the cwb doesn't read these and I have found that the directors can't implement any good ideas to correct the problem. Ward and Ian should put their jobs on the line if they can't correct the problem and fairly quickly.

Low price durum PRO's don't correct the problem.

Blowing out high quality durum to the feed market price is not a solution either. No storage fees is not a solution.

The bins still have to be built and I think our buyers should be building them and storing the grain.

[Jagfarms]

When we were at the C to C program in Winnipeg 2
weeks ago the CWB was talking about letting
farmers out of Durum contracts on the A and B
series if they want to. Let them walk away and they
do not have to deliver the remainder of the Durum
on the A or B contracts. They were also talking
about offering a cash price for Durum not part of
the pooling contract. The price would be ugly but
would let farmers sell their Durum that want to sell.
This cash price would not effect the pooling price
for Durum.
There was quite a few farmers that contacted the
CWB and want out of their Durum contracts and
want to store it until next year or until the price
comes up. There was one farmer who had 20,000
tonnes of Durum himself who wants to hold it over.

Not sure if they are going ahead with this idea but
they said once the New crop pros were announced
they will see how farmers react and maybe hive us
this option.

This new crop pro for Durum should be a single to
farmers to seed less durum this year.

That"s my opinion.

[Jagfarms]

When we were at the C to C program in Winnipeg 2
weeks ago the CWB was talking about letting
farmers out of Durum contracts on the A and B
series if they want to. Let them walk away and they
do not have to deliver the remainder of the Durum
on the A or B contracts. They were also talking
about offering a cash price for Durum not part of
the pooling contract. The price would be ugly but
would let farmers sell their Durum that want to sell.
This cash price would not effect the pooling price
for Durum.
There was quite a few farmers that contacted the
CWB and want out of their Durum contracts and
want to store it until next year or until the price
comes up. There was one farmer who had 20,000
tonnes of Durum himself who wants to hold it over.

Not sure if they are going ahead with this idea but
they said once the New crop pros were announced
they will see how farmers react and maybe hive us
this option.

This new crop pro for Durum should be a single to
farmers to seed less durum this year.

That"s my opinion.

[Choice2U]

What should THEY do with MY durum....Oh, the irony!

[Fransisco]

Railway has got it right.

Give it back to the farmers and let them deal with it as they see fit. And never take another bushel of durum from a farmer without his permission ever again.

[Fransisco]

To paraphrase Danny Williams,<b> my grain, my farm, my choice.</b>

[Hopperbin]

Choice2u logically for every bushel let out of the pool the CWB should allow another bushel back in from someone like you.
Good luck getting a speedy decision on something like that though.
Holding back production and Stubbles neighbours planting nothing but durum on spec should be a tuff next year ahead. Other parts of the world one would think should plant less

[wmoebis]

Advisers are sooo smart when they have nothing invested. Remember DePutter just got paid for this advise.

Give it away, because it isn't worth much today, although some day it will be. That will be the day when we don't have any.

I would rather have my bins full of $12 durum than empty of $3 durum.

[Fransisco]

No one forces anyone to follow the advice of any of these advisors. And unlike the CWB if they make too many wrong calls they find their businesses drying up.

[gregpet]

CWB is rrrrrrreally smart since they have no skin in the game either.

[Choice2U]

wmoebis....I suggest you look up the word advisor in a dictionary. I think it would say something like "a person that gives advice" not "a clairvoyant". Paying attention to advisor's comments only gives one information, an opinion or research that one may not have had prior to making an informed decision. You want choice to hold your durum or grow more, all the more to you. I'm glad you got that choice now give me choice on marketing mine.