Pondering

[checking]

From Deputter Publishing Ltd.

Ron Frost, a Calgary based analyst with Agri-Trend Marketing and the Frost Forecasting Corp. says new crop wheat, barley, durum, peas, and oats all point to unprofitable returns.

Mike Jubinville, an analyst with ProFarmer Canada believes canola will at least provide the opportunity for a cash flow. Wheat, barley, and durum is farming for charity.

If you listen to these guys, there is a chance for a return on canola. That takes care of a rotational 1/3 of your acres. The rest is negative. Yet most of us will still sow the losers just to fill our bins, to haul it out at a loss, just to empty our bins to get ready to do it all over again. Feel like a hamster in an exercise wheel!

If the above grains are charity, would it not make sense to compare the loss of sowing 2/3rds of your acres to the loss, and maybe some good, of chemfallowing? For those many, who couldn't stand not seeding because 2/3rds of their bins are empty, they could fill them up by buying the neighbour's charity.

[cottonpicken]

The flaw in the logic is understanding the difference of
the variable and fixed costs.

As long as you get some return over variable cost on
the acres your helping yourself to some degree.

Of course this still really,really SUCKS!

[Fransisco]

You also do it on spec because these are just forecasts and things change.

Putting all of ones eggs in the canola basket based on what we know at this time of year would be a big gamble.

[tmyrfield]

cotpik nailed it
seeding wheat I may lose $20/ac at current pro's and crop ins yields
If I chem fallow, smf cost's plus fixed costs work out to $125/ac loss. I calculate fixed costs over all acres and not just seeded acres. If I calculate fixed costs over seeded acres NOTHING is profitable.
key is reducing fixed costs,

[oneoff]

And by doing so you have certainly made your contribution to helping ensure that every farmer and almost every crop will not be profitable; perhaps for several more years than was necessary.
Sign those contracts and be satisfied with losses and in several of the good years farmers will actually break even. Maybe the governments won't be there with social aid this time around; that could be a problem. Also don't forget about the real money losers and the mistakes we all make. Those losses have to be covered in the long run. For God's sake don't do anything to cooperate and move toward fixing the basic problems that are inherent in the farming "industry" .

[fjlip]

And 98% of the population laugh all the way to the bank depositing their low priced food cheques. Nothing will change because getting farmers to act with one voice is like herding cats, f'ing impossible!

[Ron]

Summerfallow is an expense this year but it should reduce your expenses next year, reduce risk for 2011, and possibly reduce surplus produced in 2010 helping prices?
It will cost you money now but can you clean up a field and knock 30-40 off your fert expense next year? Maybe help straighten out rotations?

[bgmb]

you guys can all summerfallow and I'll plant wall to wall and really cash in!

Sounds like a great idea to me.

[fjlip]

That's exactly how we think.

[hobbyfrmr]

It depends on how much we owe... Some operations cant afford not to plant a crop just to cash flow their operation. some operations cant afford another big crop!! It really is all perspective and risk tolerance. Some will, some won't..that is all. Tonight, I met a JD salesman, young guy with kids..His take on farming, most farmers are all weighing risk. Some operations buy/lease 4 -12 machines, some farms buy one old tractor 8570 or combine 9600. ultimately its all risk. He did not have a bad word for any farmers, big or small, its just people working at making a living.

[checking]

bgmb, you'll miss a spot to sow if you don't move your house deck!!!

I'm wishing you luck with the cashing in part because that isn't the industry provider's idea. Their (not a wish list) facts are that we will make less and less per bushel into the future while they sell us seeds that produce more and more. I say, how stupid is that of us.

[oneoff]

All I would ask is that everyone be honest with themselves and their fellow farmers. Anyone who has to plant wall to wall; I won't be suprised and would understand the reasoning made in that decision. However if it is so you can really cash in because of the other moron farmers trying to cut back overproducing; then I hope someday those farmers and their ilk will be seen for what they are.
Those persons are the reason that farmers can not speak with one voice for their own collective good.

[oneoff]

Cotton you nailed it with your comments about summerfallow.

We all must remember that we have never made or lost it this early in the year. Yes, things look questionable at this point however there is just as much chance of things changing in our favor as against.

Our world continues to grow, we all need to eat, we consume all that we grow.

Ron - If you do summerfallow, think of the opportunity next year. You may save a bit on chem, however that SF field on my farm would be getting the same rates as a continuous cropped field. Our experience is that you always get more than 2 to 1 ratio of a good agronomic blend of fertilizer and chemical

[Ron]

Yes Saskfarmer99 I am not going to fallow to skimp on fert, more to straighten out my rotation without going to a CWB cereal. I have some compaction issues and weed issues that subsoiling and fallow should address (and let me do a better job in 2011).