Have farmers Delayed spring purchases?

[SASKFARMER3]

Is it just me or others seeing the huge amount of advertising that's taking place to get me (Joe Farmer) to spend on the 2010 crop. Yesterday I was loading HRS so in tractor most of day and almost ever commercial break was book your Canola seed. Book your Big boys. Book book book. Not BUY BUY BUY. But book. So it has me wondering if farmers are sitting back waiting to make spring decisions or are we Cash poor because the slow movement of grain this winter out of the prairies. and the PS poor prices. Or are we still recovering from last falls Harvest from Hell.
I mean even the phone calls when can we deliver your seed spray etc. Get your green light done. Crap its almost spring and if your green light isn't done yet its almost to late. So are farmers Cash poor, Bins full rich. I think so. But bins of Durum and Oats don't pay the bills.
Then last night I found out a young neighbor just decided to quit this spring, rented it all out and is working out. Is this the beginning of new round of exiting from farming. This guy had a rough fall harvest with poor grades.
The new renter is our local Fert dealer. That's another story. HM.
Look at Dealer lots Air Drills from Two years ago are still on some dealers lots. Combines out the quazo.
So yes the Speculators are buying up land. They did another 2200 acres an RM away and are now trying for 50 an acre rent so one has to ask is this the year these guys don't get paid.
Spring 2010 is going to be a challenge, Diesel is up, Chem for HRS and Durum crops is up, Canola seed is up, even with drop or chem. WINK WINK they also got rid or $5 rebate to second pass. Rent is up. So what went down, AH yes its our grain prices and every day, I mean every single day they keep dropping dropping dropping. So is 2010 just a continuance of the fall from hell?

[furrowtickler]

Less than half booked or even paid for inputs last fall. Still alot of indecision in this area.
Also remember that yes a few guys had bad luck last fall on top of a poor harvest, spent a fortune on drying poor grade and or had a bin or two or three of canola heat. That would pretty much take the fun out of it in a hurry.
But then again those who did well are spending like drunkin sailors. Alot of machinery moving here - in fact a few dealers here have sold way more this winter than the past two.

[haveapulse]

The old, throw the book at it and hope it comes out the other end profitable, attitude has been replaced by a very realistic spread sheet. It is a necessity to vote with our pockets, and hope that somewhere in a head office someone gets the message that crop inputs are way to high.

Hope springs eternal.

[SASKFARMER3]

I think allot of farmers are just going to wait wait wait till almost seeding and then decide what to buy or order etc.

[SASKFARMER3]

funny have a pulse your right most farmers are getting smarter. Our rep for one of the companies was out the other day sizing up my needs, I informed him we were going to skimp on wild oat spray and go back to 24D on all our cereals and drop seed treatment. ETC ETC. he just about crapped his pants. You cant. Yea I can i told him and explained head office needs a wake up call. Hope others are sending the same message.

[SASKFARMER3]

He also wanted me to take delivery of my seed. Their was a draw for free TV ha ha ha. I did tell him he could send out the 2-4D. Today.

[boarderbloke]

haveapulse, I think you've nailed it. The sun is setting on that generation and those that think that way. Now days, it needs to pencil out, and if a 30 bus/ac crop pencils out and a 40 doesn't, I won't be chasing after costly inputs to grow the forty. It's not about having the nicest looking crop when driving down the road, it's about making money.

[bgmb]

How many will be spending over 20 bucks an acre on a high end product like axial?

How about Proline on your 2.50 barley? yeah that sounds like a good idea.

How about 8 bucks and acre on variable rate fertilizer?

These type of extras will be hard to sell this year I think.

[bgmb]

axial - puma or assert = $6 cheaper
proline - bumper/tilt/stratego = $13 cheaper
cut out variable rate = 6-8 cheaper

So that means your cost on your bly crop is 26 bucks an acre cheaper. You need 10bu/ac less to break even.

And you are still spraying for everything and fertilizing with the same rates.

[haveapulse]

I am glad we have our calculators out with cost of production, we should keep a post open for pricing! Great stuff.

But as individuals try to eek out a profit we have to realize that it is not only inputs we need to take a look at, the cost of industry inefficiencies generated from a non competitive wheat and barley market have resulted in much higher elevator handling rates than our US counterparts.

The monkey on your back is also industry inefficiencies.